Heading into the final three weeks of the 2024 NFL regular season, the most drama in the playoff race rests in the NFC.

Even though there is still seeding to be determined in the AFC, the seven teams in the field are a virtual lock at this point. They all entered Week 15 with at least a 75 percent chance to make the field.

The Pittsburgh Steelers clinched a playoff berth despite losing to the Philadelphia Eagles thanks to the Indianapolis' Colts loss. The Los Angeles Chargers still have a two-game lead for the No. 7 seed with three games remaining.

Things are much more interesting in the NFC with only three teams having clinched playoff berth, but no division titles locked up yet. There is also a three-way tie for the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Here is an updated look at the standings, playoff-clinching scenarios and elimination scenarios going into Week 16.

Scenarios via NFLPlayoffScenarios.com.

Team Standings

AFC Standings

Division Leaders

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1; clinched AFC West)

2. Buffalo Bills (11-3; clinched AFC East)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4; clinched playoff berth)

4. Houston Texans (9-5; clinched AFC South)

Wildcard

5. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

6. Denver Broncos (9-5)

7. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)

On the Bubble

8. Indianapolis Colts (6-8)

9. Miami Dolphins (6-8)

10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)

Eliminated

11. New York Jets (4-10)

12. Cleveland Browns (3-11)

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11)

14. Tennessee Titans (3-11)

15. New England Patriots (3-11)

16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)

NFC Standings

Division Leaders

1. Detroit Lions (12-2; clinched playoff berth)

2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-2; clinched playoff berth)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)

4. Los Angeles Rams (8-6)

Wild Card

5. Minnesota Vikings (12-2; clinched playoff berth)

6. Green Bay Packers (10-4)

7. Washington Commanders (9-5)

On the Bubble

8. Seattle Seahawks (8-6)

9. Atlanta Falcons (7-7)

10. Arizona Cardinals (7-7)

11. San Francisco 49ers (6-8)

12. Dallas Cowboys (6-8)

13. New Orleans Saints (5-9)

Eliminated

14. Chicago Bears (4-10)

15. Carolina Panthers (3-11)

16. New York Giants (2-12)

Week 16 Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Philadelphia Eagles clinch NFC East

• win/tie vs. Washington Commanders

Washington Commanders clinch playoff berth

• win vs. Eagles AND Atlanta Falcons loss/tie vs. New York Giants AND Seattle Seahawks loss/tie vs. Minnesota Vikings
• or win vs. Eagles AND Atlanta Falcons loss/tie vs. New York Giants AND Los Angeles Rams loss/tie vs. New York Jets
• or tie vs. Eagles AND Atlanta Falcons loss vs. New York Giants AND Arizona Cardinals loss/tie vs. Carolina Panthers AND Seattle Seahawks loss vs. Minnesota Vikings AND Los Angeles Rams loss/tie vs. New York Jets
• or tie vs. Eagles AND Atlanta Falcons loss vs. New York Giants AND Arizona Cardinals loss/tie vs. Carolina Panthers AND Seattle Seahawks tie vs. Minnesota Vikings AND Los Angeles Rams loss vs. New York Jets

Green Bay Packers clinch playoff berth

• win/tie vs. New Orleans Saints
• or Seattle Seahawks loss/tie vs. Minnesota Vikings AND Atlanta Falcons loss/tie vs. New York Giants
• or Los Angeles Rams loss/tie vs. New York Jets AND Atlanta Falcons loss/tie vs. New York Giants

Kansas City Chiefs clinch AFC No. 1 seed and home-field advantage

• win vs. Houston Texans AND Buffalo Bills loss/tie vs. New England Patriots
• or tie vs. Houston Texans AND Buffalo Bills loss vs. New England Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers clinch AFC North

• win vs. Baltimore Ravens

Denver Broncos clinch playoff berth

• win/tie vs. Los Angeles Chargers
• or Cincinnati Bengals loss/tie vs. Cleveland Browns AND Indianapolis Colts loss/tie vs. Tennessee Titans AND Miami Dolphins loss/tie vs. San Francisco 49ers

Los Angeles Chargers clinch playoff berth

• win vs. Denver Broncos AND Indianapolis Colts loss/tie vs. Tennessee Titans AND Miami Dolphins loss/tie vs. San Francisco 49ers
• or loss/tie vs. Denver Broncos AND Indianapolis Colts loss vs. Tennessee Titans AND Miami Dolphins loss vs. San Francisco 49ers AND Cincinnati Bengals loss/tie vs. Cleveland Browns

Baltimore Ravens clinch playoff berth

• win/tie vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
• or Miami Dolphins loss/tie vs. San Francisco 49ers AND Indianapolis Colts loss/tie vs. Tennessee Titans

The biggest story in the AFC right now is the availability of Patrick Mahomes in Week 16 after he left Sunday's 21-7 win over the Cleveland Browns in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury.

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported tests confirmed Mahomes suffered a mild high ankle sprain and he will be considered week to week. The problem for Kansas City is its next two games happen four days apart, starting Saturday against the Houston Texans then on Christmas Day against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

If the Chiefs can win on Saturday and the New England Patriots manage to upset the Buffalo Bills, Andy Reid could rest Mahomes and all of his key starters for the final two games of the regular season because they will have locked up the No. 1 seed.

The entire AFC playoff field could be in place by the end of Sunday's game. The Broncos and Baltimore Ravens control their destiny and can punch their ticket with wins this week.

There's a possibility the Chargers could lock up their spot in the field this week, but they will need to beat the Broncos on Thursday and get some help from a couple of other teams on Sunday.

Over in the NFC, things are much less chaotic right now. The Philadelphia Eagles-Washington Commanders matchup has the biggest playoff implications.

Philadelphia will win the NFC East with a win, while also keeping pace with the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions for the No. 1 seed. The Commanders could clinch their first playoff berth in four years with a win and some help, though it's a long shot all of those scenarios will play out this week.

The Green Bay Packers can clinch a playoff spot for the fifth time in six years under Matt LaFleur with a win or tie against the reeling New Orleans Saints. They could also lose that game and still get in this weekend, but it's much simpler if they take care of their own business.

Week 16 Elimination Scenarios

NFC Elimination Scenarios

New Orleans Saints

• loss/tie vs. Green Bay Packers
• or Tampa Bay Buccaneers win/tie vs. Dallas Cowboys
• or Atlanta Falcons win vs. New York Giants

It's easy to forget how optimistic things felt for the New Orleans Saints after the first two games of the season when they scored a total of 91 points, but injuries and regression hit hard after that.

The Saints have already turned the page toward 2025 after firing head coach Dennis Allen on Nov. 4 following seven straight losses. They could be officially eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday, marking the fourth straight year they have missed the postseason.

Dallas Cowboys

• loss/tie vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• or Washington Commanders win/tie vs. Philadelphia Eagles

You could be forgiven for not knowing the Dallas Cowboys weren't already eliminated based on how much the conversation throughout the regular season was about how much of a disappointment this team has been.

It's to the Cowboys' credit they have played better of late with three wins in their last four games when it would have been easy to pack it in, especially after Dak Prescott went down for the season with a hamstring injury.

Arizona Cardinals

• loss vs. Carolina Panthers AND Los Angeles Rams win vs. New York Jets
• or loss vs. Carolina Panthers AND Los Angeles Rams tie vs. New York Jets AND Seattle Seahawks win/tie vs. Minnesota Vikings
• or tie vs. Cardinals AND Los Angeles Rams win vs. New York Jets AND Seattle Seahawks win vs. Minnesota Vikings AND Washington Commanders win/tie vs. Philadelphia Eagles

It turns out the Kliff cliff might just be a thing that applies to the Arizona Cardinals rather than the specific NFL team that Kliff Kingsbury works for. They came out of their Week 11 bye in first place in the NFC West with a 6-4 record, but lost three straight before getting back on track with a 30-17 win over the New England Patriots on Sunday.

The Cardinals have another winnable game in Week 16 against the Carolina Panthers to stave off elimination for at least one more week, but their odds of making the playoff are very long right now.

San Francisco 49ers

• loss/tie vs. Miami Dolphins
• or Seattle Seahawks win vs. Minnesota Vikings AND Los Angeles Rams win vs. New York Jets
• or Seattle Seahawks win vs. Minnesota Vikings AND Los Angeles Rams tie vs. New York Jets AND Arizona Cardinals win vs. Carolina Panthers
• or Seattle Seahawks win/tie vs. Minnesota Vikings AND Washington Commanders win/tie vs. Philadelphia Eagles
• or Los Angeles Rams win/tie vs. New York Jets AND Washington Commanders win/tie vs. Philadelphia Eagles
• or Arizona Cardinals win vs. Carolina Panthers AND Washington Commanders win/tie vs. Philadelphia Eagles
• or Seattle Seahawks win/tie vs. Minnesota Vikings AND Atlanta Falcons win vs. New York Giants AND Tampa Bay Buccaneers win vs. Dallas Cowboys
• or Los Angeles Rams win/tie vs. New York Jets AND Atlanta Falcons win vs. New York Giants AND Tampa Bay Buccaneers win vs. Dallas Cowboys
• or Arizona Cardinals win vs. Carolina Panthers AND Atlanta Falcons win vs. New York Giants AND Tampa Bay Buccaneers win vs. Dallas Cowboys

The reigning NFC champs could also stave off elimination for another week with a win over the Miami Dolphins and some help, but their 12-6 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday all but ended any hopes they had of making a late-season surge to make the playoffs.

One interesting note about the 49ers is they have either advanced to the NFC Championship Game or missed the playoffs altogether in every season since 2003. It's all but certain this season will fall into the latter category.

AFC Elimination Scenarios

Miami Dolphins

• loss vs. San Francisco 49ers AND Los Angeles Chargers win/tie vs. Denver Broncos 
• or tie vs. San Francisco 49ers AND Los Angeles Chargers win vs. Denver Broncos

After laying an egg in a 20-12 loss to the Houston Texans on Sunday, the Miami Dolphins are facing an extreme uphill climb to even have a chance at making the playoffs for a third consecutive season.

The Dolphins' path to holding off elimination starts with beating the reeling San Francisco 49ers, but they likely have to win out and get a lot of help along the way to have a shot at getting in the field.

Cincinnati Bengals

• loss vs. Cleveland Browns
• or tie vs. Cleveland Browns AND Los Angeles Chargers win/tie vs. Denver Broncos

Despite the best efforts of Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson, the Cincinnati Bengals are in need of an overhaul after this season. Most of the changes need to come on defense because Hendrickson has been their only quality starter all season.

The Bengals are a team like the Dolphins that has the slimmest of chances to make the field by winning out and getting a lot of help along the way. They do at least have a winnable game in Week 16 against the Cleveland Browns to avoid officially being eliminated for another week if they take care of business.

Indianapolis Colts

• loss vs. Tennessee Titans AND Los Angeles Chargers win/tie vs. Denver Broncos
• tie vs. Tennessee Titans AND Los Angeles Chargers win vs. Denver Broncos

A strange season for the Indianapolis Colts all but ended with Jonathan Taylor's decision to drop the football before crossing the goal line in Sunday's loss to the Denver Broncos.

If Taylor had crossed the goal line, the Colts would have taken a 20-7 lead in the third quarter. Instead, they got outscored 24-0 after that moment in a 31-13 loss. They would have improved to 7-7 with a win and had the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos.

The Colts have a schedule that's set up to win out with games against the Tennessee Titans, New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars, but they essentially need the Los Angeles Chargers to lose out if they want to make the playoffs.