With just three weeks left in the regular season, the 2024 NFL playoff picture is starting to crystallize. The AFC side of the bracket looks especially set, with three teams already clinching a divisional title, four guaranteed a spot and three others looking close to locks to make the field.

Although the AFC playoffs may not have much intrigue in terms of which teams will get in—barring an improbable string of events that could see the Cincinnati Bengals defy their meager six percent postseason odds—there is still plenty for each contender to play for due in terms of seeding.

The 13-1 Kansas City Chiefs currently have a two-game lead over the Buffalo Bills for the top seed and the conference's lone bye, but that could quickly dissipate.

The Chiefs not only have a brutal end-of-season schedule, but they may also be forced to navigate it without Patrick Mahomes. The quarterback could miss time while recovering from an ankle injury he suffered late in the Week 15 victory over the Cleveland Browns.

While the Chiefs and Bills have the clearest path to the No. 1 seed, the 10-3 Pittsburgh Steelers aren't quite out of the running for that distinction despite suffering a tough loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15.

Even the 9-5 Houston Texans, who clinched the lackluster AFC South on Sunday, have a chance to vastly improve their seeding beyond the No. 4 slot they currently occupy.

With that in mind, let's predict how the AFC bracket will look when the 2024 NFL playoffs kick off next month.

Playoff probabilities courtesy of NFL.com.

No. 7: Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos have been one of the big surprises of the 2024 season, fighting their way into the playoff hunt in a year when weren't projected to contend due to their pricy decision to part ways with Russell Wilson.

The cash-strapped organization wasted little time finding a replacement for the nine-time Pro Bowler in the form of Bo Nix, the signal-caller who was selected with the No. 9 overall pick.

The rookie has been a revelation for the Broncos, joining forces with head coach Sean Payton to create an exciting young offense with an exceedingly bright future.

Defense has been the real key to Denver's success, though, as the unit has made significant year-over-year strides. After allowing opponents to score 24.3 points per game in 2023 (ranking No. 27 in the league), the Broncos have improved to tie for the league lead in that category—only conceding a stingy 17.6 points per game.

While the Broncos have parlayed a four-game win streak into a 91 percent chance to make the playoffs and would be the No. 6 seed if the Wild Card Round began today, they will likely have to settle for the AFC's seventh and final seed.

With a tough slate on the horizon that includes a pair of AFC West matchups against the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs—teams Denver already lost to earlier this year—in addition to a Cincinnati Bengals team that is far stronger than its 6-8 record indicates, the Broncos should be happy to just make the field with a 10-7 record.

No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers have surged into a new era under head coach Jim Harbaugh.

The hiring of the 60-year-old has rejuvenated an organization that hit a wall with Brandon Staley at the helm and won just five games during a disappointing 2023 season.

Harbaugh not only has the Bolts a near-lock for the playoffs—they have an 88 percent shot at making the field—but he has also transformed the culture of the franchise. The team now has an identity as a hard-nosed squad that wears down opponents on offense and dominates on the defensive side.

While L.A.'s offensive marks aren't too impressive—it ranks in the bottom six for yardage and scores just 21 points per game on average—the unit hasn't had to do much heavy lifting thanks to immense defensive efforts. The Chargers are tied with the Broncos for the best scoring defense in football and have been able to shut down lesser foes with ease.

Although the Bolts have been struggling in recent weeks—losing two of their last three games including a 40-17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15—you can bet Harbaugh will have this team prepared to finish strong against a slew of beatable opponents.

With two of L.A.'s final three games coming against the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots, it should finish with a 10-7 record at worst.

If the Chargers can take care of business against Denver at home on Sunday—a game they're favored in and should be confident for after knocking off the Broncos in the Mile High City earlier this year—they will be in the driver's seat to secure the No. 6 seed.

No. 5: Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens have made the playoffs in each of the last two seasons and five of the last six. That streak looks like a safe bet to continue after they decimated the New York Giants in Week 15, a victory that brought their record to 9-5 and boosted the team's postseason probability above 99 percent.

While Baltimore isn't having as strong of a season as last year when it finished with an NFL-best 13-4 record, the squad is looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender with Lamar Jackson playing some of his best football at the perfect time.

While Jackson will need a herculean finish to usurp Josh Allen for his third MVP award, he's completing a career-high percentage of his throws, ranks behind only Joe Burrow in touchdown throws and has only been responsible for three interceptions in his 14 starts.

The impact Derrick Henry is having on this organization cannot be understated, either. His presence has given the Ravens their first true rushing threat out of the backfield in years, balancing out an offense that had overly relied on Jackson to shoulder the rushing load while risking costly injuries.

The veteran running back is having a brilliant season, rating No. 2 in the league in rushing yardage while punching in an NFL-best 14 scores on the ground.

While the Ravens have an uphill battle to catch Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North race after losing the first head-to-head bout in Week 11, they could even up the series with a win in Week 16.

Even if Baltimore fails to leapfrog the Steelers for the divisional crown and has to begin the playoffs on the road, it should still feel better about its Super Bowl chances than it has in recent years.

No. 4: Houston Texans

The Houston Texans were one of the great stories of the 2023 NFL season. After years of being mired in the league's basement, they reemerged as a playoff squad thanks to the stellar play of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.

The Texans have cooled off a bit this year. While the team just locked up the AFC South for the second straight season, Stroud has been suffering through a sophomore slump and hasn't had quite the same impact he did during his first NFL campaign.

Houston spared no expense during the offseason, capitalizing on his cheap rookie deal to acquire veterans such as Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter and others to help get the squad over the hump after stalling in the divisional round last year.

While the defense has held up and ranks in the top five, the offense has dropped out of the top half of the league while struggling with consistency and injuries—including losing Diggs for the season after the veteran wideout tore his ACL in late-October.

This next fortnight will be a true test for the Texans. They are currently preparing for two potential playoff game previews in back-to-back weeks, first on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs and then at home versus the Baltimore Ravens.

While the Texans have had their moments this year, it wouldn't be a shock to see them drop both games, finishing the year with a 10-7 record and starting the playoffs as the No. 4 seed.

No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers

Even after proving their mettle last year by grinding out a 10-7 record and a playoff berth, the Pittsburgh Steelers weren't a trendy pick to make it back to the postseason in 2024.

It's hard to fault anyone who expected them to backslide after they experienced significant instability at the quarterback position. Pittsburgh parted ways with all three signal-callers who started at various points in 2023 and brought in a pair of castoffs in Justin Fields and Russell Wilson as replacements.

Those decisions, as well as the hiring of Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator following his dismissal as Atlanta Falcons head coach, proved to be shrewd ones as the Steelers have made major improvements on that side of the ball.

Pittsburgh had the worst offense of any playoff team last year—averaging just 304.3 yards and 17.9 points per game—but looks far better in 2024. The Steelers are now putting up 325.6 yards per game and have improved their scoring output by nearly a touchdown, averaging 24 points per contest.

Defense has long been a hallmark of this organization and has remained one throughout the Mike Tomlin era. The team has lived up to its lofty defensive standards in 2024, rating No. 6 in points allowed and No. 9 in yards given up while leading the league with a whopping 30 takeaways.

Those 15 interceptions and 15 fumble recoveries, along with good game management from the team's quarterbacks, has resulted in Pittsburgh tying the Bills for the best turnover differential in football.

While the Steelers have a tough slate to close out the regular season—starting with a rematch against the Baltimore Ravens before facing the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals in back-to-back weeks—they should be able to finish the year on a high note, locking up the division and No. 3 seed.

No. 2: Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs have been in control of the AFC's No. 1 seed for the entirety of the 2024 campaign.

Despite having a gigantic target on their back after winning each of the last two Super Bowls and three of the last five, they still managed to rip off nine consecutive victories to open the season and are standing at 13-1 with three games left to play.

While the Chiefs have often looked the part of a juggernaut ready to become the first NFL team to ever three-peat, they've also proved to be vulnerable at times and have displayed flaws that could come back to haunt their chance to make history.

The team notably struggled against the Buffalo Bills in a potential AFC Championship Game preview, generating just 259 yards of offense and committing a pair of turnovers while allowing Buffalo to score twice in the game's final frame.

Since suffering that lone defeat, the Chiefs have scraped by with a trio of wins by a field goal or less before finally turning in a resounding 21-7 victory over the lowly Cleveland Browns.

However, despite securing a margin of victory larger than one score for the first time since Week 7, the Chiefs were dealt a major blow in their quest to lock up the No. 1 seed. With Patrick Mahomes limping off near the midpoint of the fourth quarter and failing to return to close out Cleveland, there are now real concerns that he will miss some pivotal matchups down the stretch.

According to ESPN's Adam Teicher, Mahomes said it's "hard to say" whether he'll be available for Kansas City's Week 16 clash with the Houston Texans. The game is slated to take place on Saturday, giving the signal-caller one less day than usual to recover.

Head coach Andy Reid revealed the signal-caller's ankle wasn't broken and said the team will "see how he does down the road" when it comes to a timetable for a return.

Assuming Mahomes is sidelined for just one game, it wouldn't be a shock if the Chiefs falter with backup Carson Wentz under center against Houston. A loss there, as well as in one of its two final matchups against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos, will likely cost Kansas City a much-needed bye and deal a major blow to its three-peat hopes.

No. 1: Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are looking like the best team in football after outdueling the red-hot Detroit Lions in a highly anticipated Week 15 battle.

The Bills proved their resilience in the contest, shaking off a tough 44-42 defeat to the Los Angeles Rams last week to pick up a key 48-42 victory on the road in the Motor City.

While Buffalo isn't perfect, it would be tough to argue any offense is as close to it as Buffalo's. The team has scored 30 or more points in each of its last eight contests and is averaging a massive 31.8 per game on the year.

Josh Allen is the catalyst for this display of offensive brilliance and on the cusp of sealing up his first-ever MVP award.

The 28-year-old has raised his already impressive game to new heights in 2024, racking up 3,395 yards and 25 touchdowns against just five interceptions in his 14 starts so far. He's been a force on the ground as well, converting 91 totes into 484 yards and 11 scores.

It's nothing short of amazing that Allen has accomplished all this despite parting ways with Stefon Diggs—the team's top receiver and a Pro Bowler in all four of his Buffalo seasons—and big play threat Gabe Davis during the offseason.

If the Bills can find a way to dial things in defensively—an area that has to be a focal point for them leading up to the playoffs after giving up 86 combined points across the last two weeks—they'll be a tough out as one of the Super Bowl favorites.

With an extremely favorable schedule that includes two showdowns with the lowly New England Patriots sandwiched between a meeting with the beatable New York Jets, it would be shocking if Buffalo doesn't win out. That would bring them to 14-3 on the season, setting a club record for regular-season victories, and have them positioned to usurp the Chiefs as the top seed in the AFC.