Jimmy Butler, Brandon Ingram, Zach LaVine and a handful of other big names have been bandied about as trade candidate for months, but which ones might actually wind up on another team by the Feb. 6 deadline?
We'll make that assessment here by considering the logistics, motivations and market opportunities attached to each player. In some cases, the factors will make a trade undeniably likely; in others, swaps will be a lot harder to see.
Now that we've crossed the Dec. 15 date off the calendar, whispers and rumors will only intensify. Looking at the landscape as it stands right now, let's make our best guesses as to which players will be wearing different jerseys later this year.
Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans
This will come down to whether the New Orleans Pelicans would prefer to get something or nothing for Brandon Ingram.
Odds are, they'll choose the former.
Ingram is on an expiring $36 million salary, hasn't received a suitable extension offer from the Pels and can walk away in free agency this summer.
While any potential deal is complicated by the fact that Ingram's free agency will follow him wherever he goes (unless his new team extends him at a rate he'll accept), it feels safe to assume one of the other 29 teams in the league would be willing to commit to him on a longer-term deal.
Note, too, that he has changed representation, hiring Rich Paul of Klutch Sports to be his new agent. That's probably not a move that increases the odds of a signing a deal to stay with his current team.
At 27, Ingram is in his prime as a quality scorer. Maybe he's not a first option on a good team, but he's always been able to create his own shot, and this season's increased three-point volume should make him appealing to plenty of teams.
The San Antonio Spurs stand out as an interesting landing spot, as they can cobble together packages that include young players and picks while also possessing the ability to pay Ingram handsomely on his next contract.
Verdict: Buy
Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
Scan the league, filter out the teams that have no interest in acquiring a 35-year-old potential free-agent Jimmy Butler, and you're left with a handful of long-shot options who'd have to bend over backwards to get a deal done.
Spotrac's Keith Smith laid out the incredibly complex nature of potential Butler trades to his preferred destinations—Houston, Dallas, Golden State and Phoenix—and every one of them comes with prohibitive complications.
Salary caps, aprons and finances aside, reports and logic also suggest a Butler move is far from a foregone conclusion.
The Rockets have said they're not in the market for an in-season blockbuster. The Mavericks would have to aggregate several players to get a deal done for a third scoring star who wouldn't be an ideal fit. As for the Suns, Bradley Beal could have gone to the Heat when he left Washington, but he didn't. He has a no-trade clause to prevent it from ever happening.
The Warriors are the likeliest landing spot, but would Golden State really improve enough by swapping out Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga and more (plus future picks) for Butler?
Few teams project to have significant cap space next summer, and the Brooklyn Nets are the only one in line to have over $40 million. Though ESPN's Shams Charania reported Butler intends to decline his $52 million player option for 2025-26, the financial reality is that it will be difficult, if not impossible, for him to make more than that next season.
Combine all those roadblocks, and it's harder to see Butler moving than any other big name we'll discuss. A trade isn't impossible, but outside of Golden State, it's extremely difficult to see how it happens.
Verdict: Sell
Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors are giving Jonathan Kuminga an opportunity to show he's too good to trade, and he hasn't exactly given them proof that's the case.
A Dubs team that desperately needs someone to step up as a second shot creator behind Stephen Curry is getting just 16.8 points per game on 50.5 percent true shooting from Kuminga as a starter.
That modest production is coming with chronic hesitation and indecisive offense, underwhelming rebounding and a general lack of feel that has defined his game from his rookie season.
Considering he's just 22, a mixed-bag performance like this probably should have been the expectation. None of it rules out stardom three years from now.
The Warriors don't care about that kind of time horizon, though, which is why Kuminga probably has more value to them as a means to acquire immediate help. That they didn't agree to an extension with him prior to the season only underscores that fact.
Golden State has already added Brooklyn Nets guard Dennis Schröder, and he could serve as a stopgap secondary creator or as a more appealing inclusion in a larger deal, involving Kuminga, for a star.
Verdict: Buy
Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans aren't going to get a rebuild kick-starter kit for Ingram, but maybe they could acquire something close to that for Zion Williamson.
Or, alternatively, New Orleans could send the 24-year-old to a young team that still views him as a cornerstone, getting back multiple pieces to put around a core of Trey Murphy, Herb Jones and Dejounte Murray.
And who knows, maybe there's a team out there desperate for the salary relief it could achieve by trading for Williamson and waiving him prior to July 15, wiping his money from the books entirely.
At the very least, it's fair to say the 2019 No. 1 overall pick's potential as a trade chip has more interesting facets than Ingram's.
Realistically, though, the Pelicans will do the smart thing and hold onto Williamson through the deadline. His value is at an all-time low, and they can protect themselves from a complete bottoming-out by waiving him this summer. It's hard to imagine New Orleans going that route, but the optionality it wisely priced into his deal means it can afford to be patient.
With the Duke product hurt again and few teams clamoring to take on the uncertainty that comes with building around him, there's just not going to be a strong enough market to justify a trade this season.
Verdict: Sell
Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls
Less than a year after it was reported the Chicago Bulls might have to give up first-rounders to get off of Zach LaVine's deal, he looks like one of the best high-end options on the market.
He's younger than Butler, doesn't have imminent free agency hanging over him like Ingram, and he is far more proven than Kuminga. Though he's owed $95 million in the two full years remaining on his deal after this one, LaVine might be the best bet to give an acquiring team its money's worth.
The two-time All-Star has missed just four games this season and is averaging 21.7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists on a 50.1/42.8/80.0 shooting split. The Bulls have the 12th-best offense in the league, and that overall figure is 7.9 points per 100 possessions better with the 29-year-old in the game.
While those are all arguments for keeping LaVine, Chicago has to understand by now that trading him is the best way to get off the mediocrity treadmill.
Considering the unappealing alternatives on the market and the relative high point LaVine's value has hit, the Bulls would be engaging in managerial malpractice by holding onto him through the deadline.
Verdict: Buy
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Dec. 17. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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