Bills QB Josh Allen Nic Antaya/Getty Images

Week 16 NFL Odds: Early Locks and Best Bets on the Schedule

Kristopher Knox

We're entering the home stretch, football fans. Only three weeks remain in the NFL season, and seven of the league's 14 playoff spots have been secured.

The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings are all headed to the playoffs. Another nine teams have been eliminated from contention.

We may see some lopsided contests over the final few weeks, as some teams have far more to play for than others. Fans so inclined, however, can look to keep things interesting with a few wagers.

Let's take a look at some of the most intriguing plays of Week 16 based on the early lines.

*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook

Chiefs +2.5 Versus Texans

Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Chiefs are underdogs at home? It may seem strange, but that's what happens when Patrick Mahomes might be unavailable. Mahomes suffered an ankle sprain on Sunday and may not suit up against the Houston Texans.

"It's hard to say right now," Mahomes said, per ESPN's Adam Teicher. ".. I feel like I could have finished the game in different circumstances, but I thought the smart decision ... was to put Carson Wentz in."

The Texans are a playoff team with an explosive offense and a stout pass rush. It's not really surprising that they're favored with Wentz possibly behind center for Kansas City.

Still, it's hard not to take the points for the home dogs here. Kansas City has a tremendous defense capable of winning games all on its own—which is pretty much what happened during the Chiefs' six-takeaway outing in Week 15.

Andy Reid can scheme up offense with the best of them, and the Chiefs can grind out the game with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco. Even with Wentz playing the game-manager role, Kansas City can at least keep this one close.

And it's worth noting that Mahomes hasn't been ruled out yet.

Bills -14 Versus Patriots

Bills QB Josh Allen Nic Antaya/Getty Images

This is an extremely large line for an NFL game and especially for a divisional matchup. However, we've seen what happens when elite teams face bad ones. The Baltimore Ravens were more than two-touchdown favorites over the New York Giants last week and went on to win by 21.

The Bills may not run up the score against the rival New England Patriots to that degree. However, they should cover comfortably.

New England has flashed some promise on occasion, thanks largely to rookie quarterback Drake Maye. However, it isn't a good football team. The Bills are, and quarterback Josh Allen is playing at a ridiculous MVP level.

Just consider that Buffalo managed to beat the Lions by six points in Detroit and held a double-digit lead until the final seconds of regulation. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has figured out exactly how to utilize players like James Cook, Ty Johnson, Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman. With Allen running the on-field show, there aren't many teams capable of keeping pace with the Bills.

The Patriots certainly aren't one of them. This is a large line, but it's likely to get even bigger before the end of the week.

Buccaneers -4 at Cowboys

Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

The Dallas Cowboys cruised to a 30-14 victory over the Carolina Panthers in Week 15, and they'll host another NFC South team with a lackluster defense on Sunday.

While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may struggle defensively, though, their offense is far more potent than Carolina's. Tampa will likely need to get a clean game from quarterback Baker Mayfield to win as convincingly as it did in Week 15, but it can still cover if Mayfield struggles.

The Buccaneers, for the record, just dropped 40 points on a very good Los Angeles Chargers defense. Dallas' defense isn't nearly as good as Los Angeles' has been. It's been particularly poor against the run, which is a huge factor to consider here.

Dallas ranks 20th in yards per carry allowed and 29th in rushing yards allowed and dead-last in rushing touchdowns allowed. The Buccaneers have become a force because offensive coordinator Liam Coen has unlocked the backfield tandem of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White.

Mayfield and Mike Evans did shine against the Chargers, but Tampa also racked up 223 rushing yards while controlling almost every aspect of the 40-17 rout. The Bucs can lean on their ground game, control the tempo and grind their way into a convincing victory in Dallas.

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Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.

   

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