Arch Manning David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

B/R Expert Predictions for the 2024 College Football Playoff

David Kenyon

For the first time in the sport's history, 12 college football teams will be competing for a national championship.

The newly expanded College Football Playoff is officially here, and it begins—as the football gods intended—with on-campus games. The winners will advance to the quarterfinals, where the bracket shifts to traditional sites—like the Rose, Sugar, Orange and Fiesta Bowls—on the road to Atlanta for the 2024 season's national title.

Gather 'round, ball-knowers and casual fans and annoyed significant others, we welcome all of your attention.

It's championship season. And we've got predictions.

Each member of Bleacher Report's college football crew—David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Morgan Moriarty, Joel Reuter and Brad Shepard—has shared a CFP storyline to watch.

Looking for more postseason stories? Check out the B/R panel's predictions for non-CFP games, too.

Kenyon: Dillon Gabriel Sets FBS Records

Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

If you take a look at the FBS record book, Case Keenum sits atop the career leaderboard in both passing yards and touchdowns. He tallied 19,217 and 155, respectively, while at Houston from 2007-11.

Keenum, however, might not be No. 1 in either category soon.

Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel has been a fixture of the sport since his breakout year at UCF in 2019. His recognition rose at Oklahoma in 2022-23, and he leads a now-unbeaten Oregon squad into the CFP with 18,423 yards and 153 touchdowns in his career.

No matter what happens in the quarterfinals—a Rose Bowl showdown with Ohio State or Tennessee—Gabriel has a great opportunity to become the FBS leader in passing scores.

But I think Oregon wins there.

And again in the semifinals.

Then, in the national championship, the southpaw cements in his place as college football's all-time leader in passing yards.

Yes, there's an asterisk of Gabriel playing a fifth full season. It's certainly fair to acknowledge that difference in his favor. Nevertheless, he's taken full advantage of the extra eligibility and—should Oregon make the national title—will leave as the most productive college QB ever.

Kramer: Arch Manning's Time to Shine

Tim Warner/Getty Images

For Texas, the path seems clear.

As good as Quinn Ewers has been for this program, Arch Manning needs to see the field more. When he does—and he will—the impact is likely to be significant.

The second-year QB's size and mobility are a threat against any opponent, and it's the kind of threat Texas—which hasn't looked great offensively in recent games—could really benefit from.

Manning's presence in big moments won't just help his team win multiple rounds of Playoff games. It will also catapult his stardom, which is already blooming, forward to next season. And he will do so in a very un-Manning fashion, with speed and strength and a bit of brute force.

Manning doesn't need a postseason platform to see his popularity explode. We've known who he is and what he does for years now.

His time is coming soon enough. But it feels like a perfect moment for Manning to take that next, next step, and Texas should benefit immensely along the way.

Moriarty: Arizona State Continues Its Surge

Cam Skattebo Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

Arizona State's rise to the CFP in head coach Kenny Dillingham's second year is nothing short of massively impressive.

Equally surprising is how the Sun Devils seemingly came out of nowhere in the Big 12, crashing the Playoff with a first-round bye.

Just a couple of months ago, Arizona State didn't appear to be barreling toward the CFP. On Oct. 19, the Sun Devils were 5-2 and coming off a 24-14 loss to Cincinnati. ASU also had an earlier loss to Texas Tech.

But in the latter half of the season, the Sun Devils have been on a tear.

ASU rattled off six straight wins, including back-to-back Top 25 victories over Kansas State and BYU in November to ultimately earn a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game. Predicted to finish dead last in the conference, ASU made a statement with its dominant 45-19 win over a quality Iowa State team.

It's a hell of a turnaround for a program that finished 3-9 last year.

Led by star quarterback Sam Leavitt and Heisman finalist snub Cam Skattebo, Arizona State has peaked at just the right time. Its late-season rise makes the Sun Devils one of the most dangerous teams in the CFP. They have all the momentum and the talent to make a deep run in the Playoff and continue the feel-good turnaround story.

Reuter: Indiana Proves It Belongs

Justin Casterline/Getty Images

The knock on a surprise Indiana team throughout a 10-0 start was a lack of quality opposition. When the Hoosiers had a chance to erase that narrative at Ohio State in Week 13, they suffered a lopsided 38-15 loss.

Breakout quarterback Kurtis Rourke had just 68 passing yards in that game, and the Hoosiers offense managed only 151 total yards.

But one poor performance does not negate their entire body of work.

They led the nation in rushing yards allowed per game (70.8) and ranked second in total yards allowed per game (244.8). This defense will be the key to success if IU is going to put together a Playoff run.

In the first round, the Hoosiers face a Notre Dame team that leans heavily on the ground game, averaging 35.7 carries and 224.8 rushing yards per contest. If they can control the trenches and force Riley Leonard to be more of a factor as a passer, they are capable of pulling off the upset.

The winner of that game will then face a Georgia squad with a major question mark at quarterback as Carson Beck recovers from an elbow injury that knocked him out of the SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs roster is loaded, but a more one-dimensional offense would level the playing field.

Don't be surprised if a Hoosiers team that was overlooked and underestimated all year is still standing in the national semifinals.

Shepard: SMU Makes the Semis

Kevin Jennings Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images

The SMU Mustangs have enjoyed a historic season in their first year in the ACC, but that nearly got derailed by a disastrous start in the conference championship game. Even when they came roaring back, a last-second, booming field goal propelled Clemson into the CFP.

The committee still saw fit to include the at-large Mustangs in the field of 12, and that will prove to be a strong decision because Rhett Lashlee's team has the firepower to win a couple of games.

Part of the reason is a favorable draw. Yes, SMU must go on the road to Penn State to battle the Nittany Lions and frigid temperatures in the first round, but the next big game James Franklin's team wins would be the first in a long time. It's certainly possible SMU steals a close one, even on the road.

After that, the Mustangs have the most favorable quarterfinals draw against Boise State. Yes, the Broncos played toe-to-toe with top-ranked Oregon earlier this year, but Idaho did, too, and the Vandals aren't here, are they?

I think Lashlee's team goes stampeding into the semifinals, which would be a major building block for the program's future.

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