Packers QB Jordan Love Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

Projecting NFL Wild-Card Teams for AFC, NFC Ahead of Week 16

Maurice Moton

Six NFL teams have clinched playoff spots, and three of them have secured division titles, though clubs still have a lot to sort out in the final three weeks of the regular season.

The NFC North is the league's best division, and it may have three playoff teams. Based on win-loss records, three of the NFL's top seven clubs are in that division.

An NFC North team could win 13 games and have to go on the road in the Wild Card Round.

Still, there's room for a surprise team in that conference.

In the AFC, the wild-card teams have separated from clubs hanging on to playoff hopes by a thread, but the final order may shock you. The remaining three weeks could shake up the current seeding.

Here's a late-season prediction for wild-card spots ahead of Week 16. For context, the projected division leaders are listed below.

Projected Division Leaders

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson Kathryn Riley/Getty Images

Division Leaders

AFC East: Buffalo Bills*

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs*

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

AFC South: Houston Texans*

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC West: Los Angeles Rams

NFC North: Detroit Lions

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

*= clinched division title

The Bills, Chiefs and Texans have clinched division titles, which provides a clear picture of the AFC wild-card races down the stretch. While the Bengals (6-8) have an outside shot to make the playoffs, two teams will compete for the AFC North title and the loser of that battle will likely clinch a wild-card berth.

Every division title is still up for grabs in the NFC, which sets the stage for must-watch division and in-conference games over the next three weeks.

Let's break down the projected wild-card seeding.

AFC No. 5 Seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6)

Steelers QB Russell Wilson Dylan Buell/Getty Images

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-2 against the Lamar Jackson-led Baltimore Ravens, but they could be without wide receiver George Pickens (hamstring) and star edge-rusher T.J. Watt (low ankle sprain) in their upcoming AFC North showdown.

At home, a healthy Ravens team will look to avoid a season series sweep to the Steelers. DraftKings has Baltimore favored by a touchdown.

Because of key injuries on both sides of the ball, Pittsburgh may struggle in its last three games against the Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs would still be a tough team to beat with backup quarterback Carson Wentz if Patrick Mahomes misses time with an ankle injury.

Still, the Steelers have enough cushion to finish with at least 11 wins and claim the top wild-card spot over the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos, two teams they beat early in the season.

If Pickens and Watt are ready to play this week, Pittsburgh can win its last two games and hold the conference record tiebreaker over Baltimore. However, with Pickens out of practice and Watt's new injury, the Steelers are in trouble and could lose their grip on the AFC North lead.

AFC No. 6 Seed: Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh (left) and QB Justin Herbert (right) Harry How/Getty Images

The Los Angeles Chargers' upcoming Thursday night matchup with the Denver Broncos may ultimately decide which team claims the No. 6 seed.

The Chargers have lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, so they would fall behind either in a head-to-head tiebreaker for the No. 5 seed. In Week 6, Los Angeles beat Denver 23-16 at Empower Field at Mile High.

If the Chargers sweep the season series with the Broncos, they would be in a good spot for at least the No. 6 seed with a slim chance to move up, depending on how the second-place AFC North team finishes the season.

In their first year under head coach Jim Harbaugh, L.A. seems ahead of schedule. It parted ways with wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this past offseason, but rookie second-rounder Ladd McConkey has emerged as the team's lead receiver, hauling in 63 passes for 873 yards and five touchdowns.

The Chargers play a physical style on both sides of the ball that can help them win road playoff games outdoors if they have to travel to Kansas City, Buffalo, Pittsburgh or Baltimore. Remember, they nearly upset the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium without McConkey in Week 14.

However, the Chargers will need running back J.K. Dobbins to return from injured reserve to rely on their ground game against the playoff competition. L.A. hasn't eclipsed 94 rushing yards in a game since he went down with a knee injury in Week 12.

AFC No. 7 Seed: Denver Broncos (11-6)

Broncos QB Bo Nix Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

Based on the premise that the Los Angeles Chargers will beat the Denver Broncos in Week 16, head coach Sean Payton's club slides to the No. 7 seed, which is still impressive with rookie quarterback Bo Nix and a remodeled roster in the second year on his watch.

Nix has exceeded expectations, and he's earned Offensive Rookie of the Year buzz, throwing for 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with 327 yards and four scores on the ground.

While the Broncos are slightly behind the Chargers in their turnaround because of a less experienced signal-caller, they have an identity led by a stout defense and a mostly efficient offense. Before a sloppy Week 15 performance, Denver turned the ball over twice in four weeks.

Even though the Broncos offense is still developing, they're averaging 34.8 points in their last four contests. If the unit continues to score at that pace, Denver could put the No. 2 seed on upset alert.

NFC No. 5 Seed: Green Bay Packers (13-4)

Packers RB Josh Jacobs Steph Chambers/Getty Images

The Green Bay Packers have a chance to win out and move ahead of the Minnesota Vikings, who beat them at Lambeau Field in Week 4 because of a better record in common games.

Jordan Love hasn't taken the leap to an MVP candidate, largely because of passing inefficiencies and miscues. This season, he threw at least one interception in his first eight outings, and his completion rate has dipped slightly from 64.2 percent in 2023 to 63.7 percent this year.

Yet Green Bay's offense may have found its identity with running back Josh Jacobs leading the way on the ground. He has at least 18 carries in five consecutive contests, and he's scored nine touchdowns in that stretch.

If Love avoids turnovers as he has in his last four outings, the Packers could pull off another Wild Card Round upset, like they did last year in Dallas.

NFC No. 6 Seed: Minnesota Vikings (13-4)

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

At 13-4, the Minnesota Vikings would be one of the best No. 6 seeds in NFL history, but because of a top-heavy NFC North division, they may be a road team with an impressive record in the Wild Card Round.

The Vikings have two winning streaks of five or more games, with quarterback Sam Darnold playing at his best.

Head coach and offensive play-caller Kevin O'Connell has tapped into Darnold's potential. The sixth-year veteran and 2018 No. 3 overall pick has thrown for 3,299 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions with a 68.4 percent completion rate.

Darnold has reached career highs in multiple passing categories and can build on those numbers in the final four weeks of the season. He has the help of a quality supporting cast, which includes All-Pro Justin Jefferson, budding second-year wideout Jordan Addison, two-time Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson and versatile running back Aaron Jones, who leads the team in scrimmage yards (893 rushing and 302 receiving).

However, the Vikings could stumble in the last two weeks of the season against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.

Packers quarterback Jordan Love has been efficient lately, and the Green Bay offense is more balanced than it was in the last meeting with Minnesota at Lambeau Field.

Following a loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Lions may have to play out the season with their starters to hold on to the NFC's No. 1 seed. In Week 7, Detroit beat the Vikings in Minnesota, and it will host them at Ford Field in Week 18.

NFC No. 7 Seed: Washington Commanders (11-6)

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

The Washington Commanders will beat out the Seattle Seahawks for the No. 7 seed.

The Seahawks (8-6) will face playoff contenders in two of their next three games: hosting the Minnesota Vikings this week and traveling to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18. Seattle also has a question mark at quarterback, with Geno Smith suffering a knee injury.

Meanwhile, the Commanders' remaining schedule only includes one team with a winning record: the Philadelphia Eagles.

Even if Smith can play through his injury, the Seahawks may have major questions about his inefficiencies. Over the last five weeks, he's thrown for three touchdowns and three interceptions.

Meanwhile, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has shown he's the front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year, throwing for 17 touchdowns and six interceptions with a 70.5 percent completion rate and scoring six touchdowns on the ground.

Aside from Daniels' dynamic playmaking ability, Washington's offense is built to run over the Atlanta Falcons' and Dallas Cowboys' run defenses in two of the next three weeks en route to a postseason berth. The Falcons and Cowboys rank 17th and 30th against the run, respectively.

Even if the Commanders lose to the Philadelphia Eagles this week, an 11-6 record should be enough to edge second place in the NFC West.

Keep in mind that Washington has lost three of its five games against AFC opponents, while the Rams and Seahawks have both lost five games within the NFC. So, if conference tiebreakers factor into the seeding, the Commanders have the advantage over those teams.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.

   

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