For the second consecutive week, we simply must begin our projection for the 2025 men's NCAA tournament with more marveling at what the SEC has done thus far.

As a whole, the league has gone 144-20.

Against Quad 1, the SEC is 23-16. That's a ludicrous .590 winning percentage, while the other four major conferences are at: ACC 11-43 (.204), Big Ten 16-38 (.296), Big 12 12-27 (.308), Big East 8-17 (.320).

They've also only suffered one loss against Quad 3 or Quad 4, that being South Carolina's home loss to North Florida on opening night, which wasn't even that bad.

As a result, 13 of the 16 SEC teams are in our projected field, with two more among out first five out. And we are past the point of this just being silly early data. Nonconference play is almost finished, and there is a growing legitimacy to the notion that this could be a 13-bid or even 14-bid league.

At this point in the season, predictive (or QUAL) metrics (NET, KenPom, Torvik and BPI) still carry more weight on the team sheets than the resume (or RES) metrics (SOR, KPI and WAB) do, but all seven of those metrics—as well as quadrant-based records and strength of schedule—factor into the seeding process.

The projected auto bids from each of the 31 conferences will eventually be based entirely on conference record. Conference play hasn't begun yet for most leagues, though, so we're simply rolling with the highest-rated team in the predictive metrics as each league's projected champ.

With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

The Projected Bracket

EAST REGION (Newark)

Milwaukee, WI
1. Iowa State vs. 16. Southern / Little Rock
8. Ole Miss vs. 9. Maryland

Milwaukee, WI
4. Mississippi State vs. 13. Arkansas State
5. Michigan State vs. 12 Grand Canyon

Seattle, WA
3. Oregon vs. 14. High Point
6. Memphis vs. 11. Arkansas

Raleigh, NC
2. Alabama vs. 15. UMass Lowell
7. Illinois vs. 10. Saint Mary's

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)

Lexington, KY
1. Tennessee vs. 16. Central Connecticut
8. Texas Tech vs. 9. Georgia

Providence, RI
4. Connecticut vs. 13. Samford
5. Oklahoma vs. 12. Liberty

Denver, CO
3. Houston vs. 14. McNeese
6. Dayton vs. 11. Missouri

Raleigh, NC
2. Duke vs. 15. Wright State
7. Wisconsin vs. 10. West Virginia

SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)

Lexington, KY
1. Auburn vs. 16. American / Merrimack
8. Baylor vs. 9. San Diego State

Providence, RI
4. Clemson vs. 13. Kent State
5. Purdue vs. 12. SMU / Creighton

Wichita, KS
3. Marquette vs. 14. Lipscomb
6. Michigan vs. 11. Drake

Wichita, KS
2. Kansas vs. 15. Montana State
7. Utah State vs. 10. North Carolina

WEST REGION (San Francisco)

Cleveland, OH
1. Kentucky vs. 16. Norfolk State
8. Cincinnati vs. 9. Texas

Denver, CO
4. UCLA vs. 13. Charleston
5. Texas A&M vs. 12. UC Irvine

Seattle, WA
3. Gonzaga vs. 14. South Dakota State
6. Pittsburgh vs. 11. Nebraska / Arizona State

Cleveland, OH
2. Florida vs. 15. Yale
7. St. John's vs. 10. Penn State

Bracketing principles note:

With both the Big Ten and SEC projected for more than eight teams each, it's worth pointing out this note from the NCAA's bracketing principles and procedures:

"Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament."

Ideally, this wouldn't happen, but there may be some spots in which it is simply unavoidable.

In this particular projection, we have six SEC teams in the 1/8/9/16 seeds grouping. As a result, we have a possible Tennessee-Georgia second-round game, as well as a possible Kentucky-Texas second-round game. Each of those matchups is scheduled just once during the regular season, so those would be permissible.

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds

1. Auburn Tigers (9-1, NET: 1, RES: 1.3, QUAL: 1.0)

2. Tennessee Volunteers (10-0, NET: 2, RES: 4.7, QUAL: 3.3)

3. Iowa State Cyclones (9-1, NET: 6, RES: 9.0, QUAL: 5.7)

4. Kentucky Wildcats (10-1, NET: 7, RES: 7.7, QUAL: 10.3)

5. Duke Blue Devils (8-2, NET: 3, RES: 13.0, QUAL: 3.0)

6. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2, NET: 10, RES: 4.3, QUAL: 7.3)

No changes to report in the top five, unless you want to count "further separating from the pack" as a change.

Not only did our No. 6 overall seed (Marquette) and No. 7 overall seed (Gonzaga) from one week ago each suffer a loss, but all four of the No. 1 seeds added quality wins.

Auburn just plain obliterated Ohio State in Atlanta by a margin of 38 points. It was 25-8 before the broadcast even switched over from the end of the Memphis-Clemson game, and things didn't get any better for the Buckeyes. Johni Broome pulled even further ahead in the early NPOY race with 21 points, 20 rebounds, six assists, three blocks and no turnovers.

Elsewhere in the SEC, Tennessee had an even more impressive week, beating Miami by double digits in New York City before a buzzer-beating road win over a very good Illinois squad. Both Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler fouled out, so they would've probably been in trouble if that game went to overtime. Instead, Jordan Gainey delivered the Tyus Edney-like game-winning end-to-end layup to seal it.

Iowa State also improved its resume at the expense of a Big Ten team, rallying late for a road win over its in-state rival. The Cyclones never led until the final three minutes, but then ran away from the Hawkeyes for a nine-point victory. Their season-long streak of scoring at least 81 points in each game remains intact.

After a slow first half against Colgate, Kentucky eventually woke up and cruised to victory before benefiting greatly from the return of point guard Lamont Butler for the rivalry game against Louisville. The San Diego State transfer shot a perfect 10-for-10 from the field and finished with 33 points in a 93-85 game in which the Wildcats somehow seemed to be ahead by exactly eight points for the entire night.

Duke also won its only game of the week, but lost a little bit of ground on that quartet by merely defeating Incarnate Word.

And replacing Marquette as the sixth-best No. 1 seed candidate is Alabama following a solid home win over Creighton. The Crimson Tide now has victories over Houston, Illinois, North Carolina, Creighton, Rutgers and McNeese, more than counter-balancing competitive losses to Oregon and Illinois. Yet, they only have the fourth-best resume in the SEC. Ridiculous.

10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams

Fifth-to-Last In: Missouri Tigers (9-1)—Last week's first team out benefited from losses by others.

Fourth-to-Last In: Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2)—Got pummeled by Florida, but resume metrics still look great.

Third-to-Last In: Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-2)—Statement win over Indiana following 37-point loss at Michigan State.

Second-to-Last In: Creighton Bluejays (7-4)—Loss to Alabama keeps Creighton right on the cut line.

Last Team In: SMU Mustangs (9-2)—Narrowly sneaks into the field following bubble win over LSU.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: Washington State Cougars (9-2)—Blowout SMU loss is a tiebreaker, but Cougs are close.

Second Team Out: Vanderbilt Commodores (9-1)—One solid win, one forgivable loss, almost SEC's 14th team.

Third Team Out: Ohio State Buckeyes (6-4)—Solid predictive metrics, but blew all four Quad 1 chances.

Fourth Team Out: LSU Tigers (8-2)—Lands slightly behind SMU after Saturday's loss to the Mustangs.

Fifth Team Out: San Francisco Dons (9-2)—Ended Loyola Chicago's perfect season; four-bid West Coast Conference loading?

ACC Summary

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 5. Duke; 16. Clemson; 24. Pittsburgh; 38. North Carolina; 47. SMU

Also Considered: Louisville

Biggest Change: SMU inches into the field

It was a pretty quiet week in the ACC, which I suppose was at least better than another bad week.

Duke blew out Incarnate Word, North Carolina trounced La Salle and Pittsburgh smoked Eastern Kentucky—all at home, all by at least 25 points, none of it changing anything for those three teams.

Even Clemson's overtime loss to Memphis wasn't a particularly big deal. They should have won that battle of the Tigers, but it only cost Clemson slightly on the overall seed list.

The one somewhat noteworthy development was SMU handing LSU a 10-point loss on Saturday—on a day where the SEC won each of the other 13 games on its schedule.

It wasn't a massive individual outcome, merely a Quad 2 victory. For a Mustangs team that entered that game 0-2 vs. Q1 with just one Q2 win to speak of, though, it felt important.

Their metrics are respectable, right in the typical bubble range with an overall average rank of about 50th. But we'll find out in a hurry in 2025 whether SMU has a case for a bid, as it will have a home game against Duke on Jan. 4 followed by a road game against North Carolina on Jan. 7.

After that, the Mustangs will not face either of the Tobacco Road teams, and they'll only get home games against both Clemson and Pittsburgh later in the year, meaning those two games shortly after New Year's Day might be their last chances at Quad 1 wins at least until the ACC tournament.

Better win at Boston College this coming Saturday, though, if they want to remain in the conversation for the time being.

Big 12 Summary

8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Iowa State; 7. Kansas; 11. Houston; 30. Cincinnati; 31. Texas Tech; 32. Baylor; 37. West Virginia; 44. Arizona State

Also Considered: BYU, Colorado

Biggest Change: Arizona no longer even worth considering

There's almost always at least one team that opens the year in the AP Top 10 before freefalling to the bubble and possibly missing the NCAA tournament.

It's looking painfully clear that Arizona is this year's team of that ilk. (North Carolina might be, too, but let's focus on the disappointing Wildcats for now.)

After choking away a 13-point lead in the final 10 minutes of Saturday's rivalry game against UCLA, Arizona has fallen to 4-5 for the first time since its first season under Sean Miller in 2009-10.

All five losses—at Wisconsin, vs. Duke, neutral games against Oklahoma, West Virginia and UCLA—were Quad 1 games, three of them of the Quad 1A variety. So, at least there's that; no reprehensible individual Ls.

Here's the problem, though: even assuming home wins over Samford and Central Michigan this week, Arizona is going to enter Big 12 play at 6-5 overall with one Quad 3 win (Davidson in Hawai'i) and five Quad 4 wins.

That's a terrible resume in advance of what will be a brutal schedule featuring double dips against Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech, Arizona State and BYU.

As NET rankings presently stand, they will have 11 Quad 1 games, which is plenty of opportunity to turn things around. However, if they go 11-9, ending up 17-14 overall and something like 3-13 against Quad 1, that's not going to cut it.

The Wildcats have put themselves in a position of needing to do quite a bit of work in what is probably the second best league in the country.

Big East Summary

4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 9. Marquette; 13. Connecticut; 26. St. John's; 46. Creighton

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Change: Guess who's back, back again

Even after going 0-3 in the Maui Invitational, I couldn't bring myself to boot the two-time-defending national champions out of the projected field, but I did drop them down to No. 33 overall considering they finished November with no wins better than Quad 4.

After the Huskies got back to the continental U.S. and scored wins over Baylor (home) and Texas (road), they ascended slightly back up to No. 25 on our seed list, with the potential to make a nice big leap if they could knock off Gonzaga at Madison Square Garden on Saturday.

They did, and they've leapt back up to a protected seed because of it.

Big East play begins this week, but it'll probably be some time before UConn faces any serious threat of losing.

Between now and the end of January, the Huskies will play two games each against Xavier, Butler and DePaul, road games against Villanova and Georgetown and home games against Creighton and Providence. They did open Big East play with a loss in three of their last four championship years, but they might start out 10-0 this time.

If they do, they'll be right back in the mix for a No. 1 seed before you know it.

Also of note in the Big East, both Marquette (at Dayton) and Creighton (at Alabama) suffered an eight-point loss on Saturday, but no real shame in either of those results. The Bluejays certainly could have used a quality win instead of falling to 7-4 overall, but they're still hanging around right at the cut line.

Butler losing at home to North Dakota State before also losing to Wisconsin, on the other hand, was quite ill-advised. The Bulldogs were on the radar two weeks ago, but are now fully out of the picture until further notice.

Big Ten Summary

10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 12. Oregon; 15. UCLA; 18. Michigan State; 20. Purdue; 21. Michigan; 27. Wisconsin; 28. Illinois; 34. Maryland; 40. Penn State; 45. Nebraska

Also Considered: Ohio State, Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern, Rutgers

Biggest Change: Bruins Brewing; Rutgers Rallying?

Let's begin at the top of the league, where UCLA scored yet another victory over a former Pac-12 rival. The Bruins opened Big Ten play over a week ago with consecutive wins over Washington and Oregon, and they improved to 9-1 with what was effectively a road win over Arizona in Phoenix.

They shot 4-for-21 from three-point range and 7-for-16 from the free-throw line, yet somehow closed the game on a 21-5 run for a neither-team-scores-60 victory that felt like a throwback to Mick Cronin's days at Cincinnati.

The Bruins still have a game against North Carolina in New York City next Saturday, as well as a game against Gonzaga in Inglewood the following Saturday, so it's possible they could be all the way entrenched as the Big Ten team to beat by the time conference play really gets underway in January.

Elsewhere, Rutgers picked up a solid home win over Penn State, as well as a buzzer-beating victory over Seton Hall in the past seven days. Neither one was a huge eye-opener or anything, but it gives the Scarlet Knights something to build upon, after starting out 5-4 with a bad loss to Kennesaw State and merely a neutral-site victory over Notre Dame worth mentioning at all.

Rutgers has a seriously uphill road to climb, sitting around 75th on average in the seven team-sheet metrics. Getting both wins this past week was huge, though, if they plan on getting their dynamic duo of freshmen into the dance.

SEC Summary

13 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Auburn; 2. Tennessee; 4. Kentucky; 6. Alabama; 8. Florida; 14. Mississippi State; 17. Texas A&M; 19. Oklahoma; 29. Ole Miss; 33. Georgia; 36. Texas; 42. Arkansas; 43. Missouri

Also Considered: Vanderbilt, LSU

Biggest Change: Yet another week of dominance

In the past seven days, the 16 SEC teams played a combined total of 18 games.

Here's the full list of losses suffered:

• LSU at SMU

That's it. And the Tigers were a slight underdog in that road game against a fellow 'somewhat on the bubble' foe, so it's not even like it was an unexpected loss.

Meanwhile, among the 17 wins, you had:

• Auburn annihilating Ohio State to remain the No. 1 overall seed
• Tennessee beating Miami in NYC and Illinois on the road to remain solidly the No. 2 overall seed
• Kentucky beating Colgate and Louisville to stay on the No. 1 seed line
• Florida (vs. Arizona State) and Oklahoma (vs. Oklahoma State) remaining undefeated
• Arkansas knocking off Michigan in NYC to enter the projected field
• Alabama beating Creighton and Texas A&M beating Purdue for solid resume wins
• Georgia beating Grand Canyon and Mississippi State beating McNeese in games that could have gone the other way against potential Cinderella candidates.

There are still two weeks left for the SEC to potentially shoot itself in the foot at least a little bit. Noteworthy games left on the schedule include Florida at UNC (in Charlotte) Tuesday, Oklahoma vs. Michigan (in Charlotte) Wednesday, Alabama vs. Purdue Saturday, Kentucky vs. Ohio State (in NYC) Saturday, Missouri vs. Illinois (in St. Louis) Sunday and both Mississippi State and Ole Miss playing road games against Memphis on the next two Saturdays.

Even if the SEC team loses all seven of those games, though, as long as they don't suffer a couple of brutal Quad 4 losses elsewhere during the holidays, the chances of at least a 12-bid SEC has quickly evolved from possible to likely to darn near inevitable.

Mid-Majors Summary (AAC, A-10, MVC, MWC, WCC)

7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 10. Gonzaga; 22. Dayton; 23. Memphis; 25. Utah State; 35. San Diego State; 39. Saint Mary's; 41. Drake

Also Considered: Washington State, San Francisco, VCU, Nevada, Boise State, St. Bonaventure, Loyola Chicago, Rhode Island

Biggest Change: Crucial win for Memphis; Statement win by Dayton

We lamented/lambasted Memphis' loss to Arkansas State one week ago, but at least the Tigers rallied for a critical road win over Clemson.

Much like their big win over Connecticut in the Maui Invitational, there were a couple of absolutely wild swings in the final 10 minutes of regulation before Memphis got the win in overtime.

The Tigers now have three Quad 1A wins and four total Quad 1 wins and will get a few more opportunities at solid wins in the next two weeks against Virginia, Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Securing at least one there would be huge, as there are going to be no such opportunities once AAC play begins.

Life in the A-10 could be a much different story, though, where yet another team that beat UConn in Maui scored another quality win on Saturday.

Dayton was down 18-5 early against AP No. 6 Marquette before gradually clawing back into the game and eventually pulling away for an eight-point victory. The Flyers are now 9-2 with two fantastic wins over the top teams in the Big East, as well as a solid home win over Northwestern. And the losses? Both Quad 1 games in Maui against North Carolina and Iowa State by a combined margin of seven points.

Not ready to compare this Dayton team to the Obi Toppin squad from five years ago, but this is very much a team that can do some damage in March.

Elsewhere in the A-10, VCU scored a quality neutral victory over Colorado State, and St. Bonaventure improved to 10-1 with a neutral win over Providence. Both are very much in the conversation for an at-large bid, as are Loyola Chicago, Rhode Island and perhaps even George Mason, which has a ginormous opportunity at Duke on Tuesday. It's a one-bid league for now, but at least two seems likely in the end.

Got to also shout out Missouri Valley's Drake and Mountain West's Utah State. Aside from the SEC's Tennessee, Florida and Oklahoma, those are the only remaining undefeateds in the country. And if Drake can get past Kansas State on Tuesday, that quest officially begins to get interesting.

The Other 21 Leagues Summary

21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 48. UC Irvine; 49. Liberty; 50. Grand Canyon; 51. Samford; 52. Arkansas State; 53. Kent State; 54. Charleston; 55. McNeese; 56. Lipscomb; 57. High Point; 58. South Dakota State; 59. Yale; 60. Wright State; 61. UMass Lowell; 62. Montana State; 63. Central Connecticut; 64. Norfolk State; 65. Southern; 66. Little Rock; 67. American; 68. Merrimack

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Change: Liberty Flames Stay Hot

Lost a bit in the shuffle of a wild Feast Week, Liberty won the eight-team Paradise Jam in the US Virgin Islands, defeating Louisiana, Kansas State and McNeese.

Those latter two neutral victories could be huge for a team that is presently 10-1 with an overtime loss to Florida Atlantic on a neutral floor and nary a game remaining against a KenPom top 100 opponent.

The Flames' schedule in Conference USA is no cakewalk, of course. No top 100 games, but 10 games against the top 150. That means lots of Q3, borderline Q2 action coming their way over the next 12 weeks.

But let's say they beat UT Arlington on Saturday to finish nonconference play at 9-1 against D-I competition, and then they go 16-2 in C-USA play. Which specific games they drop would be important information, but they'd be 25-3 with probably four or five Quad 2 wins, a boatload of Quad 3 wins and ideally no terrible losses.

Would that be enough for a potential at-large berth for a team that is presently around 50th in all three RES metrics?

While it's never too early for bracketology, it probably is still too early to start pulling at that thread. But we're always looking for which teams in this tier could potentially present a compelling at-large case to the selection committee. And after a week in which UC Irvine, McNeese and Grand Canyon all suffered losses, things are not looking so great on that front.