Luke Hales/Getty Images

2024 MLB Free Agency: Grading Soto to Mets and Every Signing from the Winter Meetings

Zachary D. Rymer

Even relative to the event's typically high standards, the latest iteration of MLB's winter meetings was a certified banger.

Max Fried signed! Willy Adames signed! And best of all, Juan Soto signed for a small chunk of New York Mets owner Steve Cohen's $21 billion fortune!

As the dust settles, it's an ideal time to grade each free-agent deal signed during the winter meetings. Assessments are based on how well the player fits the team and, naturally, how much sense the money makes.

Here's a basic rundown of what each grade means:

Deserving of special attention are the three nine-figure deals that took place between the eve of the winter meetings on Sunday and the third day of the meetings on Wednesday.

But before we get to those, let's check off other deals in quick-hitter fashion.

Infielder Signings

Gary Sánchez G Fiume/Getty Images

Colorado Rockies Sign 2B Thairo Estrada

The Deal: 1 year, $4 million with 2026 mutual option

The Rockies created a hole at second base when they non-tendered Brendan Rodgers in November. He never fully realized the potential he had when he was one of MLB's top prospects, but he did win a Gold Glove in 2022.

At least to this end, the light-hitting Estrada is a square peg for a square hole. He's amassed 28 Outs Above Average at the keystone over the last two seasons, which ranks third among all second basemen.

Grade: B

Baltimore Orioles Sign C/DH Gary Sánchez

The Deal: 1 year, $8.5 million

Sánchez is purely a depth piece for the Orioles. He figures to occasionally spell Adley Rutschman at catcher, otherwise sharing time with Ryan O'Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle at designated hitter and first base, respectively.

The O's will be happy if they get some power from Sánchez, but that is where they could be disappointed. He doesn't drive the ball like he did in his mid-2010s heyday, and the jury's out on whether new dimensions will help right-handed hitters at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Grade: D

Outfielder Signings

Tyler O'Neill Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Chicago White Sox Sign RF Mike Tauchman

The Deal: 1 year, $1.95 million

Tauchman is 34 years old and not coming off an especially good year. And yet, even his 0.6 rWAR for the Chicago Cubs would have made him the second-most valuable hitter on the White Sox.

This deal will be a success if he hits well in a platoon role against right-handed pitching and nets a piece or two at the trade deadline. He just might, as a market could form if he keeps up his .363 OBP against righties across the last two seasons.

Grade: B

Los Angeles Dodgers Sign LF Michael Conforto

The Deal: 1 year, $17 million

This one came (so sorry about this) out of left field, but it's worth iterating that the Dodgers are still in on Teoscar Hernández after signing Conforto. This is more an upside play on the latter than a replacement situation.

It is indeed a good upside play. Conforto only had a .740 OPS and 35 homers in two seasons in San Francisco, but that included a .803 OPS and 26 homers away from Oracle Park. And in 2024, he had his best exit velocity and hard-hit rate in years.

Grade: A

Baltimore Orioles Sign LF/RF Tyler O'Neill

The Deal: 3 years, $49.5 million with opt-out after 2025

This might look like an anti-Conforto signing at first. But as much as you'd think O'Neill's right-handed pull power would have been boosted by Fenway Park, he had a higher OPS on the road (.883) than at home (.809) for the Red Sox this year.

Rather, bigger concerns include O'Neill's strikeout habit, injury likelihood and diminishing returns on defense. This is otherwise a big gamble on how OPACY will play for right-handed power hitters. Again, the jury's out.

Grade: D

Relief Pitcher Signings

Blake Treinen Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Texas Rangers Sign RHP Jacob Webb

The Deal: 1 year, $1.25 million

This is a modest discount on the $1.7 million Webb was projected to earn in 2025 before Baltimore non-tendered him. And this was after he had a pretty good year, making 60 appearances and posting a 3.02 ERA.

Webb is no Kirby Yates, but he is a candidate to get medium- and high-leverage innings for the Rangers next season. He's been good for one strikeout per inning as a major leaguer, and his trusty changeup generally protects him from a platoon split.

Grade: B

Philadelphia Phillies Sign RHP Jordan Romano

The Deal: 1 year, $8.5 million

Romano got off to a brutal start in April and May, pitching to a 6.59 ERA with 16 hits against 13 strikeouts in 13.2 innings. Then he had surgery on his right elbow and missed the rest of the year.

The upside for the Phillies is real, however. Romano was a two-time All-Star who posted a 2.37 ERA and fanned 11.1 batters per nine innings between 2021 and 2023. And even amid his struggles earlier this year, his stuff still rated well.

Grade: A

Toronto Blue Jays Sign RHP Yimi García

The Deal: 2 years, $15 million

Though the Blue Jays traded García to the Seattle Mariners at this year's deadline, their partnership had been a happy one. The righty's first 163 appearances as a Blue Jay yielded a 3.44 ERA and 10.3 strikeouts per nine.

García, 34, is also getting better with age. This year saw him set a career best with a 96.5 mph average fastball, and he fanned 36.5 percent of the batters he faced with Toronto. After separate stints on the IL with elbow neuritis, the only question is if his arm will hold up.

Grade: B

Los Angeles Dodgers Sign RHP Blake Treinen

The Deal: 2 years, $22 million

Some guys just deserve to be rewarded. Such is the case with Treinen. He had a 1.93 ERA for the Dodgers this season, and the gutsy performance he provided in Game 5 of the World Series had a lot to do with the Dodgers winning that game and the series.

Treinen is 36, however, and he missed most of 2022 and all of 2023 with a series of shoulder injuries. And while his stuff still looked good for the most part this year, he only averaged 94.3 mph on his fastball and his whole arsenal rated as below average.

Grade: D

Starting Pitching Signings

Nathan Eovaldi Sam Hodde/Getty Images

Detroit Tigers Sign RHP Alex Cobb

The Deal: 1 year, $15 million

The Tigers have reached the "add veteran experience" phase of their ascension in the AL Central. The 37-year-old Cobb certainly fits the bill, though there is a question of how much he has left to give.

Cobb pitched 301 strong innings (i.e., 3.80 ERA) for the Giants across 2022 and 2023, but he missed most of this season with injuries. The bet here seems to be that since those didn't concern his arm or shoulder, Cobb will have more left in the tank.

Grade: C

New York Mets Sign RHP Clay Holmes

The Deal: 3 years, $38 million with opt-out after 2026

Holmes is, of course, a former closer. And he was a darn good one for the most part, notably securing All-Star selections in 2022 and 2024. So, what the heck are the Mets doing converting him into a starter?

It isn't a bad idea, actually. Holmes has some of the best pure stuff in the game, but he was over-reliant on his sinker in relief. Starting is a chance for him to adapt a more balanced repertoire, perhaps with some Luis Severino-style reinventions at the Mets' behest.

Grade: B

Texas Rangers Sign RHP Nathan Eovaldi

The Deal: 3 years, $75 million

This is close to twice as much money as B/R's Tim Kelly thought Eovaldi would get in free agency. The argument for the overpay is that the market shifted in that direction, and also that the Rangers simply had to have Eovaldi back in their rotation.

Both things are true, but we're also talking about a two-time Tommy John survivor who'll turn 35 on February 13. And even if Eovaldi's fastball is still sitting in the mid-90s, the general quality of his stuff is waning.

Grade: C

San Francisco Giants Sign SS Willy Adames

Willy Adames John Fisher/Getty Images

The Deal: 7 years, $182 million

Is It a Good Baseball Fit?

Finding a shortstop was a priority for the Giants pretty much since Day 1 of the offseason. In Willy Adames, they've signed the best one on the market.

The 29-year-old is known for power and defense. He slammed 107 home runs in four seasons as a Milwaukee Brewer, culminating in a career-high 32 this year. His 26 Outs Above Average across 2022 and 2023 ranked second among shortstops.

However, there are real concerns about both qualities going forward.

The Giants' home is Oracle Park, which is the worst park in baseball for home run hitters. Adames' fielding, meanwhile, took a bad turn this year. He went down to 0 for Outs Above Average, with a whopping minus-24 swing in Defensive Runs Saved.

The latter could be a blip, but the Giants will have shot themselves in the foot if Oracle Park robs Adames of homers. They purportedly want to reduce the importance of home run power on offense, yet it's really his only carrying tool at the plate.

Is It a Good Financial Fit?

This the largest contract in the history of the Giants, surpassing the $167 million guarantee that Buster Posey got 11 years before he became the one handing out the deals.

Yet this deal's risk is mitigated by its structure. Adames will make $10 million in 2025 and 2026, followed by $28 million annually after that.

This gives the Giants leeway to keep adding pieces for an immediate contention run. Which is good, because they're more than one star away from being a player in the NL West.

Grade: C

New York Yankees Sign LHP Max Fried

Max Fried Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Deal: 8 years, $218 million

Is It a Good Baseball Fit?

It's hard to separate the Yankees' pact with Max Fried from the deal that didn't happen for them, but let's at least try.

Fried is a very good pitcher. He's indeed the only one in MLB with at least 600 innings and a 150 ERA+ since 2020. He also has the distinction of being good at everything.

For the last five seasons, the lefty has struck out (624) nearly four times as many batters as he's walked (167). He's also hard to square up, typically ranking in the top 10 percent of all pitchers for exit velocity and ground-ball percentage.

As to Fried's downsides, he'll turn 31 on January 18 and his injury history includes Tommy John surgery and a couple of recent forearm issues. To these extents, he introduces more volatility to a rotation that already had aging versions of Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón.

Of course, the Yankees are a win-now team even when they're not coming off a trip to the World Series. And with Fried, they're simply in a better spot to win than they were before.

Is It a Good Financial Fit?

This is the biggest contract ever issued to a left-handed pitcher, and it came together mere moments after reports came out that the Yankees were willing to go to seven years for Fried.

The extra year is probably just an accounting thing. We don't know what a seven-year offer would have paid Fried. But if it was also worth $218 million, then going to eight years allowed the Yankees to cut his average salary from $31 million to $27 million.

That matters for luxury tax purposes, where the Yankees need all the wiggle room they can get.

Grade: B

New York Mets Sign RF Juan Soto

Juan Soto Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images

The Deal: 15 years, $765 million with opt-out after 2029 and 10-year club option

Is It a Good Baseball Fit?

Juan Soto was, of course, the signing that didn't happen for the Yankees. And with him aboard, the Mets are better now than they were before.

This is "understatement of the century" stuff, as Soto was about six times as valuable on his own (7.9 rWAR) than all the right fielders (1.3 rWAR) the Mets trotted out in 2024. He is also literally Juan Soto, and therefore kind of a big deal.

Soto's first 936 games have yielded a .421 OBP and 201 home runs, and all before he turned 26. Only he, Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle and Albert Pujols have ever done that.

Soto's projections are astonishing. He should have at least a half-decade's worth of 5-WAR, .400-OBP and 30-homer seasons in him, and that is almost certainly underselling him.

The catch is that Soto is a notoriously bad fielder who's likely destined for a move to first base or designated hitter. But the Mets can live with that if the hits keep coming, and it's hard to imagine any scenario in which they don't.

Is It a Good Financial Fit?

The baseline guarantee of Soto's deal is the largest in sports history. And if he ultimately forces the Mets into exercising his option, this contract will cap out at $805 million.

Production-wise, Soto can only justify this deal if he ages like Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds or Ted Williams. Possible, but you don't simply expect a guy to live up to those examples.

Then again, it's not my money. And it's not yours either.

It's Steve Cohen's, and he has plenty of it. And whereas it wouldn't do anyone any good if his money stayed put in his wallet, letting it rain like this makes it that much more likely that Mets fans will like what they see over the next 15 years.

Grade: A

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

   

Read 111 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)