Major League Baseball's winter meetings are happening, and you know what that means.

Rumors. Rumors as far as the eye can see.

There is no choice but to dust off the ol' BS Meter and apply it to only the juiciest rumors coming out of Dallas. Yet be warned that this is about whispers and not about statements straight from the horse's mouth.

Like, for example, New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns saying the team would "love" to have Pete Alonso back even after signing Juan Soto to a record-shattering 15-year, $765 million deal. Why would he lie about that?

Otherwise, the BS Meter is not meant to detect whether a given whisper is true. It's about the believability of the implied outcome, which is assessed according to three readings:

• Low: Very plausible
• Medium: Somewhat plausible
• High: When pigs fly

Let's get into it, starting with trades that the New York Yankees could pair with their freshly inked eight-year, $218 million deal with Max Fried.

Kyle Tucker Could Fill Juan Soto's Shoes for the Yankees

Source: Mark Feinsand of MLB.com

The Yankees can't do better than Soto as a partner in crime for Aaron Judge, you say?

Well, you're probably right. But they can at least try by making a trade with the Houston Astros for Kyle Tucker, who had Soto beat with a .585 slugging percentage and a .993 OPS in 2024.

Feinsand's report highlights the Yankees as a team that could try to acquire the 27-year-old. And according to Astros general manager Dana Brown, a Tucker trade isn't totally off the table:

Oh, don't be so surprised. Brown said in October he would probably have to get "a little bit creative" to scale back the club's payroll. Trading Tucker would clear a projected $15.8 million salary for 2025, which is also his walk year before free agency.

But come on. Are we really supposed to expect the Astros and Yankees to hook up on any trade, much less one of this magnitude?

The two sides last made a deal of any substance in 2016, when Brian McCann went from New York to Houston. Such a stalemate makes sense given that, you know, they've been rivals for American League superiority ever since.

This concept is thus as "believe it when you see it" as they come. It's easier to imagine Tucker ending up with the Chicago Cubs, and even that feels like a reach.

BS Meter: High

Or Maybe Nolan Arenado Is the Guy for the Yankees

Source: Katie Woo of The Athletic

If not for Tucker, how about a trade for Nolan Arenado as a salve for the Soto-less Yankees?

They have "expressed interest" in the St. Louis Cardinals third baseman, according to Woo. And whereas Brown is merely open to trading Tucker, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak intends to trade Arenado.

Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the 10-time Gold Glover even has permission to speak to teams directly:

There's something about the Yankees' angle of this that doesn't feel right. In fact, it feels like they're threatening to do the Josh Donaldson deal all over again.

As Donaldson was when the Yankees acquired him in 2022, Arenado is a third baseman who's past his prime. He finished third in the National League MVP voting as recently as 2022, but now he's 33 and coming off a season marked by a .719 OPS and 16 home runs.

And his right-handed, pull-heavy stroke? Not exactly Yankee Stadium material.

Still, you have to hand it to Arenado for still being an elite defender who racked up 10 Outs Above Average this year. That skill alone is something New York badly needs, and he at least remains good for frequent contact at the dish.

Besides, $10 million of the $59 million he's owed through 2026 is on the Colorado Rockies. If the Yankees could get the Cardinals to pick up another portion of Arenado's remaining money, they'd stand to get a good deal.

BS Meter: Medium

Next Yankees-Mets Race Will Be for Garrett Crochet

Source: Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic

Let's agree that the fight the Yankees and Mets had over Soto was a good one. Ultimately, their offers to him totaled over $1.5 billion.

The sequel could be a scrap over Garrett Crochet.

The two New York clubs are "the most aggressive suitors" for the Chicago White Sox left-hander, according to Rosenthal and Sammon. They also note that no deal was close as of Monday.

This report did, however, notably come out before the Yankees signed Max Fried as their ace insurance for Gerrit Cole on Tuesday. This could be good news for the Mets, but it also doesn't necessarily erase the question that was hanging in the air before Fried signed: Is either club an ideal trading partner for the White Sox?

One is skeptical. The Yankees (2) and Mets (3) have a total of five prospects in MLB's top 100, as ranked by B/R's Joel Reuter. And unless, say, Anthony Volpe or Mark Vientos was put on the table, both are likewise short on young, controllable big leaguers to offer.

The Philadelphia Phillies and Boston Red Sox, who were also mentioned by Rosenthal and Sammon, fit the situation better. Particularly the Red Sox, who are overloaded with the kind of MLB-ready hitters Chicago is purportedly seeking.

BS Meter: High

The Padres Could Cash In on Dylan Cease

Source: Jon Morosi of MLB.com

To be clear, there is no indication as of yet that the San Diego Padres are trying to move Dylan Cease. Or even that they're open to trading him, for that matter.

Rather, Morosi's report is one of those that comes off as rival executives trying to air their wishful thinking to the public. One specifically suspects the Boston Red Sox, who Morosi says are interested in the 28-year-old:

Feinsand also pointed to Cease as a pitcher who could be "potentially available." His list likewise includes Framber Valdez, as well as Luis Castillo, Jesús Luzardo and Sonny Gray.

It's a heck of a list, but Cease's name stands out most. The Padres just traded for him in March, and he's slated to be the No. 1 in their rotation for next season. In which, of course, they will be trying for their fourth playoff berth in six years.

As Cease is projected to earn $13.7 million next season, perhaps the Padres would trade him to save some money. Or, perhaps their primary motivation would be to get something for him before free agency beckons after 2025.

As excuses to trade a guy go, though, these are weaksauce ones for a contender such as the Padres. The reasoning works better when applied to Luis Arraez, a lesser player who is projected for a higher salary ($14.6 million) in his own walk year.

BS Meter: High

The Twins Are Open to Trading Carlos Correa

Source: Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune

Speaking of name-brand players you wouldn't expect to see on the trade rumor mill, how about Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa?

Teams are inquiring as to his availability, according to Nightengale. He clarified these are likely "preliminary" calls, and it was only a couple weeks ago that Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey was throwing cold water on the idea of a Correa trade.

In speaking to Nightengale, Falvey didn't quite backtrack all the way.

"Obviously, you expect teams to call on players like that," he said, "especially with where we are and some of the conversations we're having with other clubs, but we want to win, so a high bar is set."

The teams calling about Correa can hardly be blamed. Between this year's payroll reduction and the franchise now being up for sale, the Twins are in a difficult spot.

Trading the 30-year-old and the remainder of his six-year, $200 million contract would give the club's expenses a big break, if nothing else.

Yet according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic, Twins sources say it's "hard to envision" Correa getting traded.

His contract is an issue, as it contains a no-trade clause in addition to a $128 million in guaranteed salaries through 2028. And between his infamous ankle and bothersome feet, Correa himself is dripping with injury risk.

BS Meter: High

At Least 10 Teams Are in on Devin Williams

Source: Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic

That's right. One team holds Devin Williams, and exactly one-third of the rest of the league wants him on their side.

Rosenthal and Sammon do name names in their report, including (naturally) the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers and even unusual suspects like the Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels.

As to when a trade could happen, the report suggests later in the winter is "perhaps more likely." This way, the Brewers can look to fleece whoever missed out on Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman in free agency.

Either way, the notion that a whole bunch of teams would be in on the 30-year-old is not suspect.

The Brewers have a track record of dealing guys before free agency can claim them. They did it with Josh Hader and Corbin Burnes, and the time is right to follow the same playbook with Williams. He's due for the open market after 2025.

In the meantime, the righty is projected to earn just $7.7 million in arbitration. It's a nice discount on $10.5 million the Brewers didn't exercise, and pennies for a two-time All-Star closer with a 1.83 ERA.

It all points to a trade price tag that will be pricey, but not so prohibitively to price out a wide swath of potential trading partners.

BS Meter: Low

It Will Cost the Blue Jays $500M to Extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Source: Shi Davidi of Sportsnet

In case anyone dared to wonder what, if anything, Soto's deal with the Mets means for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it turns out there's an answer.

Here's the meat of Davidi's report: "Three rival executives and four rival agents polled Monday felt that the nine-figure total on a long-term extension for Guerrero now likely starts with a five as a result of the Soto deal."

As in, $500 million. If the Blue Jays want to extend their slugging first baseman, it will cost half a billion dollars.

There certainly are ways in which Soto and Guerrero are comparable. Guerrero, 25, is likewise in his mid-20s. He's also a bat-first player whose bat is very good at generating hype, most notably in a 48-homer 2021 season and by way of a .940 OPS this year.

But is Guerrero really 65 percent as valuable as Soto?

That figure maps almost perfectly onto the rWAR Guerrero (21.5) and Soto (33.5) have produced since 2019, but it doesn't hold water in other ways. Guerrero only has Soto beat in hits and batting average since 2019, and it's fair to say he offers a more volatile profile.

Guerrero's production is prone to greater fluctuations than Soto's, to a point where he was worth just 2.0 rWAR last year. And as a right-handed-hitting, right-handed-throwing first baseman, Guerrero is part of a lineage that tends to age poorly.

BS Meter: High

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.