UFC wraps up its 2024 schedule this Saturday with a live event in Tampa, Florida featuring Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley in the main event.
It's been nearly a year since Covington last featured in the Octagon, and the always-talkative welterweight will be looking to get back on the road to title contention after losing two out of his last three fights.
Buckley comes into the event on a five-match winning streak including a memorable victory over Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson at UFC 307 in his last bout.
The 30-year-old looks to be on the rise, and a win over Covington sets him up for bigger things to come.
The B/R Combat Sports team got together to provide their predictions for this one.
Disagree with their takes? Submit yours in the comments section of the app.
Covington's Inactivity Will Be His Downfall
This is an interesting fight.
Covington was originally scheduled to face Ian Machado Garry, but an injury to Belal Muhammad moved the Irishman to UFC 310. "Chaos" now competes against a surging Buckley.
Covington's inactivity is a big concern, having only fought once yearly since 2020. Meanwhile, Buckley is in the best form of his career since moving down to welterweight last year. His five-fight win streak includes knockouts against Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque and Andre Fialho.
It's hard to see Covington's motivation in this fight. He's 36, unlikely to get back in the title picture and facing someone who isn't a big name but has everything to prove. That's a recipe for a bad performance.
I'll take Buckley to make it six wins in a row.
Prediction: Buckley by unanimous decision
- Haris Kruskic
Buckley Will Overpower Covington in Close Fight
I agree with all of Haris' points, but something is nagging at me. After all the years of bravado and big talk, is Covington going to come back from his one-sided loss against Leon Edwards in half-hearted fashion? It's genuinely a difficult question to answer.
All of the arguments made above make perfect sense even before you factor in Buckley's form, size and youth compared to Colby, who has often cherry-picked stylistic matchups that make sense for progression. Buckley certainly isn't that; he can grapple, he has knockout power and he's fearless.
But I don't think we can question Covington's motivation at this point. He's taking a risk to put together one last title run.
My gut is telling me this fight will be extremely close and down to the fine details. Buckley is on a tear, but he could be said to be racking up wins against waning forces. Covington is a step up even if he falls into that category.
I think Buckley's power will tell over multiple rounds, although I'm not confident in the pick.
Prediction: Buckley by split decision
- Nick Akerman
End of the 'Chaos' Era? No
This just in: Covington is a fighter who elicits strong opinions.
So, regardless of what we may think of the persona he's created over the last several years, we've got an obligation to forecast the main event with Buckley as we think (not wish) it will go.
Unless, of course, they're the same thing.
As for me, I'm well aware the level of competitive "Chaos" generated by the multiple-time failed title challenger hasn't matched the needle-moving he's done outside the cage.
But somehow, even at 36 and without a truly significant win in more than four years, I'm not convinced he's still not a spot or two higher in the pecking order than Buckley, who'd won just four of seven before the five-fight heater that got him on the Tampa marquee.
Presuming Covington's motor still revs anywhere close to what it used to, the thought here is that his pace and intensity will be too much for a guy not yet proven among the truly elite.
Buckley may prove me wrong, and that'll be OK, but I won't believe Covington is done until I see it.
Prediction: Covington by unanimous decision.
- Lyle Fitzsimmons
Sorry, Covington's Not Done Yet
Like many fight fans, I find Covington's shtick grating. If his time as a relevant welterweight ends this Saturday, I won't miss having to listen to his third-rate insults and mixed metaphors.
That being said, a part of me hopes he pulls off a win and sticks around a little longer. That's simply because, at his best, he's a very good fighter, and I would love to see how he matches up with other fresh contenders like Ian Machado Garry, Jack Della Maddalena and even Shavkat Rakhmonov.
There's not a lot of reason to believe that's the way it will go this Saturday. Covington put forth one of the most embarrassing performances in championship history against Edwards, and now faces a guy who may be more dangerous than the former champion.
If he performs even half as badly as he did against Edwards, he's probably going to get knocked out.
Still, I'm picking him to win, and there's only one reason for that: I don't think Covington would take this fight if he didn't see a clear and readily accessible path to victory against Buckley.
Contrary to the things that come out of his mouth, the man is not an idiot. He knows his reputation is in tatters after his disastrous performance against Edwards and that a loss to Buckley will completely shred any hope he has of staying relevant.
Nick referenced Covington's track record of cherry-picking stylistically favorable matchups. I think he's done so again in this case. He's seen something in his tape study that has led him to believe he'll be able to take Buckley down and tire him out, like he has done to so many of his previous opponents.
His obvious confidence gives me confidence. I'm expecting vintage "Chaos" in Tampa, much to the chagrin of his many haters.
Prediction: Covington by unanimous decision
- Tom Taylor
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