Juan Soto Lauren Leigh Bacho/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Predicting the MLB Players Who Will Attempt to Break Juan Soto's $765M Mets Contract

Kerry Miller

In case you somehow didn't hear the record-breaking news, Juan Soto signed the largest contract in professional sports history on Monday, committing to the New York Mets on a 15-year, $765 million deal.

Soto does have the ability to opt out of the final 10 years after the 2029 season, but for now, it does look like he's a very, very rich Met for life.

After having more than a day to try to digest the magnitude of what will be a $51 million salary for the next decade and a half, we're already wondering who's next?

It won't be anyone this winter. Heck, the combined sum of the second- through fifth-biggest contracts signed this offseason might not even match Soto's $765 million.

As we'll touch on momentarily, though, record-breaking contracts were made to be broken, and there will eventually be someone who leaves Soto's mark in the dust.

So, let's discuss a few candidates for who that might be.

Players are presented in no particular order, though we're saving our most confident guess for last.

Record-Breaking Contract History

Nolan Ryan Focus on Sport/Getty Images

In this moment, the idea of anyone besting Soto's $765 million contract and/or his $51 million AAV feels almost unimaginable.

After all, it's the perfect storm of superstardom, hitting free agency off a career year and uncommonly young age, becoming a free agent just days after celebrating his 26th birthday. He's a 1-of-1 player in a 1-of-1 situation, which sparked an all-timer of a bidding war that seems unlikely to be topped any time soon.

Counterpoint: It hasn't even been a full year since we were left to wonder if Shohei Ohtani's record $700 million contract would ever be broken.

It'll happen eventually. Inflation always finds a way.

Ty Cobb became the first player to cross the $10,000 salary threshold way back in 1913. A few decades later in 1949, Joe DiMaggio was the first player to make a $100,000 salary. Fast-forward another 30 years and Nolan Ryan became the first million-dollar man, signing a four-year, $4 million contract.

Things sure have continued to balloon in the years since that milestone.

Albert Belle had the first $10 million salary in baseball, crossing that threshold in 1997. Four years after that, Alex Rodriguez eclipsed $20 million per year on his $252 million deal with the Rangers. It was also A-Rod breaking the $30 million barrier when he re-upped with the Yankees in 2009. Max Scherzer was the first player with a $40 million base salary, getting there in 2022. And now we have Soto as the first member of the $50 million club.

Maybe it doesn't happen in the next decade, but records were made to be broken. By the end of Soto's 15-year deal, there probably will be someone (maybe several someones) making more per season than he is.

So, let's talk candidates.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Let's note right away we don't think it's likely Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s forthcoming contract will surpass Soto's $765 million deal.

Among players hitting free agency in the next three years, though, he is by far the best candidate to at least sniff that layer of the contract stratosphere.

He turns 26 in March, which means when he becomes a free agent next winter, he'll only be about seven months older than Soto was when he officially hit the open market. Not many players reach free agency before turning 27, but we're going to be treated to back-to-back years of gigantic ones—provided he doesn't sign an extension before then, of course.

Guerrero made $19.9 million this past year in his next-to-last season of arbitration eligibility, which is simultaneously 86.5 percent of the $23 million Soto got in his next-to-last arb year and a whole lot more than most players get for that season.

We probably won't know Guerrero's 2025 salary until five-six weeks from now, but Spotrac's projection puts him at $28.8 million. Again, that's less than what Soto made this past season ($31 million), but it's still an outrageous chunk of change that will rank top five of all time.

The big unknown variable at this point is how prolific Guerrero's walk year will be.

Soto finished second in the NL MVP vote in 2021, sixth in 2023 and third in the AL vote this past year. And Guerrero was second in 2021, sixth this past season and could become extremely rich with a top-three finish in 2025.

Even if he's just pretty good next season—let's say an All-Star for a fifth consecutive year, but a borderline top-20 MVP candidate—a long-term deal of more than $500 million is definitely in play here.

But if Guerrero messes around and wins AL MVP before leading Toronto relatively deep into October for a change, maybe Soto's record only lasts one year.

James Wood or Dylan Crews

James Wood and Dylan Crews Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Dating back to 2015, there have been 18 MLB contracts signed at a total value of at least $245 million.

Five of those 18 players—Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and now Juan Soto—got their start with the Washington Nationals.

Those same Nationals now have two of the most tantalizingly talented young players in the game in James Wood and Dylan Crews.

Both made their MLB debuts in 2024 and both are already 22 years old. That means we are at least five years away from a potentially huge bidding war that could ignite when they become available. It also means they'll both be a good bit older upon reaching free agency than Soto was.

If it ain't broke, though, don't fix it, right?

The Nats just keep churning out star players who sign massive contracts, most of them doing so somewhere other than the nation's capital.

And at least with Wood, the early returns were promising. Maybe not exactly "Soto promising," as Wood did whiff in nearly 30 percent of plate appearances after his July 1 arrival. However, the power/speed combo was readily apparent as he quickly became arguably the best player on the roster.

It's likely the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 draft isn't far behind him and Crews will be a key piece of the puzzle from the outset of the 2025 campaign.

From there, we wait to see if either one has the potential to blossom into MLB's first $1 billion player.

Elly De La Cruz

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

It didn't take long for Elly De La Cruz to become one of baseball's most popular stars. His fame was fueled by viral towering home runs while he was still at Triple-A Louisville and sequences like stealing second, third, and home in the span of a single plate appearance shortly after his arrival in the majors.

While there were fun moments in 2023, he took a sizable leap into a legitimate star in 2024, finishing eighth in the NL MVP vote with 25 home runs and 67 stolen bases—this after he was on pace for 45 and 101, respectively, through the first 29 games.

Sustaining that excellence (and cutting down on the strikeouts at least a little) will be the key to unlocking his contract potential. Still, De La Cruz is already putting up "Peak Rickey Henderson" HR/SB combos in just his second season in the bigs.

A few more of those 25/67 type seasons, or even an actual 45 HR/100 SB season, would really get things percolating when he hits free agency in 2029.

At that point, De La Cruz will be 27, turning 28 in January 2030, and what's reasonable to expect in terms of stolen bases over the lifespan of a possible 13-plus-year contract will be a major talking point in determining his value.

If he was a free agent right now, though, he could easily fetch a 15 year, $600 million type of deal. And that might go up if he continues to shine.

Prospects Roman Anthony or Walker Jenkins

Roman Anthony Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Heading into 2011, the top two prospects in all of baseball (per Baseball America) were Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. They ended up signing mega contracts for a combined total of $756.5 million.

Six years later, the top two prospects were Andrew Benintendi and Yoán Moncada. They ended up on one of the worst rosters in MLB history in 2024 and were both more or less obsolete before turning 30.

So, there's no telling whether the supposed best and the brightest of the future will actually turn into perennial All-Stars.

If we're talking possible superstars, though, we've got to at least throw a bone to arguably the two best who have yet to play in the majors.

Roman Anthony turns 21 in May, and there's a decent chance he'll break camp as a member of Boston's Opening Day starting outfield. In 35 games at Triple-A Worcester this past summer, he hit .344 and posted an OPS just a shade under 1.000. In his three years in the Red Sox farm system, he has a Soto-like .398 on-base percentage, drawing more than his fair share of walks.

Walker Jenkins merely had a cup of coffee at the Double-A level in the fall and probably won't open the regular season with the Twins. However, the No. 5 overall pick from the 2023 draft who turns 20 in February—and who has a .400 OBP of his own in 108 minor league games—seems a good bet to be a major leaguer by the end of 2025.

How quickly and emphatically they flourish upon arrival remains to be seen, but both could be the talk of the post-2030 free-agency class.

The Next Japanese Superstar

Munetaka Murakami Megan Briggs/Getty Images

It's too bad Roki Sasaki isn't immediately available as a conventional free agent.

The Japanese ace, who just turned 23 last month and was officially posted by Chiba Lotte on Monday, would likely spark a bidding war close to the $325 million Yoshinobu Yamamoto got last winter if he was eligible to sign for anything more than an international bonus pool money.

But if you're wondering where MLB's next $700 million contract will come from, the Japan-to-America pipeline might be a great bet.

As far as a specific name is concerned, the obvious choice for the relatively immediate future is Munetaka Murakami. He has already indicated he'll be coming to Major League Baseball next offseason, after turning 25 and playing at least six professional seasons, thereby eligible immediately for free agency.

He hit 56 home runs in 2022 and has amassed a total of 223 over the past six years—a 162-game pace of 43.5 dingers.

The fly in the ointment is that there's a hefty posting fee if he does sign a monster deal. The Dodgers paid over $50 million to the Orix Buffaloes just for the posting fee on Yamamoto. Similarly, the cost of acquiring Murakami will be $9.275 million plus 15 percent of the total amount in excess of $50 million.

Between that barrier to entry and his strikeout woes, the bidding might not get too out of hand for Murakami.

Given how well Shohei Ohtani has panned out, though, the sheer allure of the next great slugging superstar from Japan might set off some spending records.

Gunnar Henderson

Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images

With over half a dozen players listed here, we're casting a fairly wide net over the list of possible $800 million superstars.

However, if we had to pick just one who is likeliest to surpass Soto's contract, it would be Gunnar Henderson.

Over the past two seasons, the Orioles shortstop has been worth 15.3 bWAR.

Here's the full list of players who were worth at least 13 Baseball Reference wins above replacement between 2023-24:

That's it. Six players.

One of whom was the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year and the hard-luck fourth-place finisher for 2024 AL MVP with 37 home runs, 21 stolen bases, an .893 OPS and darn good defense at shortstop.

Henderson is the only member of that six-star club without at least a $250 million contract running through 2030.

The problem is that he is stuck under Baltimore's thumb for another four years before he reaches free agency. And if the Orioles will sign him to a long-term extension before that clock expires, it's pretty hard to imagine it'll be for anything close to $51 million per year or $765 million in total.

They've already missed the boat on any chance of signing him to a Witt type of extension. An 11-year, $288.8 million offer would have been probably too low a year ago after his ROY campaign, and it would be downright offensive to offer that today.

Maybe an eight-year, $288.8 million offer could work, but even that might be a no-go from Henderson's side.

Assuming that extension doesn't happen, Henderson will turn 27 in June of his walk year. If he continues to perform for another four years at anything close to the level he has over the past two seasons, a Soto-sized deal is within the realm of possibility.

   

Read 157 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)