Bleacher Report

CFB Playoff Picture 2024-25: Standings, Scenarios, Bracket Predictions After Week 15

Joe Tansey

The College Football Playoff selection committee has a difficult decision to make between the SMU Mustangs and the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The decision was put in the committee's hands after SMU fell on a last-second field goal to the Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship Game.

Clemson got into the 12-team field with the ACC's automatic bid. The Tigers will likely be the No. 12 seed given their ranking compared to the Big 12 champion Arizona State Sun Devils.

The Oregon Ducks will be the top seed after they moved to 13-0 with a Big Ten Championship Game win over the Penn State Nittany Lions.

The Georgia Bulldogs will be the No. 2 seed thanks to their SEC Championship Game triumph over the Texas Longhorns.

Texas will drop into the pool of at-large teams vying for the four hosting spots in the first round. The Longhorns and Penn State should both be somewhere between No. 5 and No. 8.

Updated CFB Playoff Predictions

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No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champion)

No. 2 Georgia (SEC champion)

No. 3 Boise State (Best G5 champion)

No. 4 Arizona State (Big 12 champion)

No. 12 Clemson vs. No. 5 Notre Dame

No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Texas

No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 7 Ohio State

No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 8 Penn State

Clemson Plays Spoiler, Puts SMU Into At-Large Pool

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Clemson thrived in the spoiler role in the ACC Championship Game.

Dabo Swinney's Tigers used a last-second field goal to take down SMU and put the selection committee in a tough spot to decide between SMU and Alabama.

Clemson will likely enter the bracket as the No. 12 seed. The Tigers came into the weekend at No. 17 and were two spots back of the Big 12 champion Arizona State.

Arizona State and Clemson may not have a ton of upward movement in Sunday's updated rankings, but as long as the Tigers remain behind the Sun Devils, Clemson will be the No. 12 seed and ASU will take the final bye into the quarterfinals.

As for SMU, its fate is in the hands of the selection committee.

The choice is between a two-loss SMU team with an ACC championship berth and a three-loss Alabama team that was placed ahead of the two-loss Miami Hurricanes from the ACC last week.

The ACC's fear is that the committee values the SEC more and that negates the difference between two-loss SMU and three-loss Bama.

However, SMU did lose a close game and its two losses occurred against Top 25 foes.

Alabama, on the other hand, has two unranked defeats on its resume and that could turn out to be its downfall in comparison to SMU.

Oregon, Georgia Lock Into Top Two Seeds

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Oregon and Georgia will be No. 1 and No. 2 in the CFB Playoff bracket.

The undefeated Ducks fended off a challenge from Penn State to win the Big Ten title in its first season in the league.

Georgia beat Texas for the second time this season in the SEC Championship Game.

Oregon is the clear No. 1 team in the field and it will be considered the favorite to win by many experts.

UGA needs the layoff to New Years' Eve or New Years' Day since quarterback Carson Beck suffered an injury right before halftime against Texas.

Georgia might be ranked behind the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the final rankings, but Notre Dame can only be as high as the No. 5 seed because it is not affiliated with the conferences who get first-round byes.

Seeding for First Round Hosts Will Be Challenging

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Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Ohio State are expected to be seeded from No. 5-No. 8 in some order.

Notre Dame has a strong case to be the No. 5 seed as the best at-large team because it was ranked fourth by the committee on Tuesday and did not lose, like Texas and Penn State ahead of it.

Notre Dame only has one loss, while Texas, Penn State and Ohio State all have two defeats.

The committee has to debate whether a conference championship participation means something in the seeding discussion.

If the committee goes by record, Notre Dame would be the No. 5 seed, Texas would likely fall to the No. 6 seed and then Ohio State would be placed ahead of Penn State because of its head-to-head win in Big Ten play.

Saturday's shakeup means we will likely see at least one all-Big Ten matchup in the first round with Indiana expected to be the No. 10 seed.

The Tennessee Volunteers do not have a path to a home playoff game unless the committee drops Penn State beneath them.

   

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