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8 MLB Winter Meetings 2024 Storylines to Watch After Juan Soto's Mets Contract

Tim Kelly

Juan Soto is a New York Met. He agreed to a record-shattering 15-year, $765 million deal to head to Flushing Sunday evening.

The biggest chip is off the board, but 18 of B/R's top 25 free agents from the outset of the offseason are still free agents. Many are likely to find homes during this week's MLB Winter Meetings.

Here's a look at eight non-Soto storylines to watch this week in Dallas.

Will Alex Bregman Leave the Astros?

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At the outset of the offseason, we predicted Alex Bregman would return to the Astros on a five-year, $130 million deal that included a $26 million club option for a sixth year.

Admittedly, that projection now feels short. But it makes the offer the Astros reportedly have put to Bregman—six years and $156 million, per MLB.com's Brian McTaggart—seem a reasonable starting point for the two sides.

McTaggart went on to note that if Bregman, a Scott Boras client, pushes for a contract closer to $200 million, the Astros will likely pivot to another option.

The strategy from the Astros appears to be clear and probably sound—they want to retain their franchise icon, but only on their terms.

Bregman is a very good player, who has posted a .798 OPS over the last three seasons. But he's never matched the Hall of Fame-level production the Astros received from him between 2018 and 2019, when he posted a .970 OPS.

He's also entering his age-31 season. Wanting to limit things to six years is probably a good strategy from owner Jim Crane and general manager Dana Brown.

While it would be strange to see Bregman leave Houston after nine incredible seasons, if it doesn't spend the money on him this offseason, some of it might be able to be reallocated to keeping Kyle Tucker and/or Framber Valdez next winter.

You can argue either of those two would be sounder investments.

Who Will Trade For Garrett Crochet?

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Coming off of a 121-loss season, the White Sox appear intent on cashing in Garrett Crochet, who had a breakout campaign and has two more years remaining before free agency.

General manager Chris Getz has been open about the desire for a package led by position players. Given how far away the White Sox are from contention, it's fair to wonder if the return shouldn't be entirely prospects, as opposed to including a controllable MLB piece that could help them in 2025.

There won't be a shortage of teams at the table for Crochet, who struck out a staggering 209 batters across 146 innings pitched for the White Sox a year ago. At various points, the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, San Diego Padres and Baltimore Orioles have all been reported to have interest in the 25-year-old lefty.

We'll get to more on the Orioles in a bit, but if the White Sox are hoping to land a bundle of young position players for Crochet, they could be the best trade partner.

Their farm system is loaded with position players—3B/1B Coby Mayo, C/1B Samuel Basallo, OF Vance Honeycutt, OF Dylan Beavers and OF Enrique Bradfield Jr.—that could be expendable considering the incredible job that general manager Mike Elias has done at developing talent.

Boston is another team that appears to have a pretty strong MLB lineup and could probably spare a few position-playing prospects, particularly in the outfield. Its top five prospects are all position players—OF Roman Anthony, SS Marcelo Mayer, IF/OF Kristian Campbell, C Kyle Teel and OF Braden Montgomery.

B/R's Joel Reuter has the Red Sox farm system ranked as the third-best in baseball, so they could put together a compelling package as well.

What Will the Blue Jays Pivot Be?

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Props to the Toronto Blue Jays for making a serious push for Soto, but they never made a ton of sense as a landing spot for him given they finished last in a crowded AL East in 2024 and both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette can become free agents after the 2025 season.

As the Blue Jays try to rebound from a 74-win season, there are immediate needs, such as another big bat that can drive in runs and multiple impact relievers.

Still, it's hard to escape the feeling none of it really matters until Toronto figures out the futures of Guerrero and/or Bichette.

Guerrero has made four consecutive All-Star Game appearances, and he just finished sixth in AL MVP voting after hitting .323 with 30 home runs, 103 RBI and a .940 OPS. The Blue Jays should take a large portion of the money they offered to Soto and see if they can get Guerrero to bypass free agency next offseason and remain in the 6.

Bichette is a bit more complicated. Injuries limited him to just 81 games this past season, and he struggled when he was on the field, with FanGraphs noting he posted just a 0.3 WAR.

It's also fair to wonder whether his long-term future will be at shortstop consider he has minus-7 defensive runs saved and minus-18 DRS in his career.

There's something to be said for letting Bichette's contract year play out. Maybe he rebounds and you want to back the truck up for him next offseason. Maybe he rebounds and is the most coveted trade chip at the trade deadline. It's also possible he doesn't have a good enough season to warrant a megadeal, and the Blue Jays let him walk next winter after he declines the qualifying offer.

Taking that approach with Bichette would be a lot easier if Guerrero is locked up.

If the Blue Jays can't get one of the two signed long-term this offseason, there's a fair argument to be made they should seriously consider trade offers.

In Guerrero's case, especially, teams will be willing to give more now when they would be getting a full season of his services and then get the right to extend a qualifying offer to him next offseason. If he is traded during the season, his new employer wouldn't be able to give him a QO.

You do get the sense, though, that the Blue Jays will carry both Guerrero and Bichette into their contract years. That would be a bold strategy for general manager Ross Atkins. Let's see if it pays off.

Should Jeff Hoffman Follow Clay Holmes?

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Clay Holmes was an All-Star in two of the last three seasons out of the bullpen for the Yankees. But despite an incredible repertoire, he sometimes struggles with command, which cost him the closer's job late in the 2024 season.

It didn't hurt him on the free-agent market, though.

The Mets inked the 31-year-old to a three-year, $38 million deal last Friday, a pact that includes the chance to opt out after the second season. Interestingly, they have looked at his arsenal and decided to use him as a starter.

That makes things even more interesting for Jeff Hoffman, with ESPN's Kiley McDaniel the first to report earlier this offseason there was some interest from teams in the 2014 first-round pick returning to starting after two tremendous years as a high-leverage reliever for the Phillies.

Hoffman—ranked as the second-best free-agent reliever this offseason on our B/R countdown—doesn't seem to have closed the door on starting again.

He told McDaniel:

"I think I would be a great starter if given that opportunity again. It was cool seeing what [Reynaldo Lopez and Jordan Hicks] did last year and, for me with how healthy I am and what I've done the last few years with my arsenal, it's an interesting thought. ... It makes sense that guys with deeper arsenals than most relievers have found success."

"Until it got brought back up [by interested teams], I assumed that ship had sailed. ... It would be totally different than the first go round. I feel like I'm 24 years old again. ... I'm moving the way I'm supposed to now. I view [starting] as a great challenge. I'm as healthy as I've ever been. I would welcome the opportunity. ... I love pitching out of the bullpen and late in games, too."

With a wipeout slider, Hoffman revived his career with the Phillies, posting a 2.28 ERA over 122 relief appearances the past two seasons. He was an All-Star in 2024. Things didn't go well for him in the postseason, but he seemed to fit well in that role.

"All things being equal, I want to get the last out," he added.

Having covered Hoffman the last two seasons, he fit well with the Phillies. Having previously pitched for the Colorado Rockies and Cincinnati Reds, he valued playing in a winning organization. He's also from New York state, so Philadelphia is a relatively good location for him and his family.

The guess here is that if the Phillies make a competitive offer, he'll return as the team's top high-leverage reliever.

But if there's more money in starting, Hoffman might be wise to take it. Although in that case, he'll have a new employer in 2025.

How Will The First Base Market Play Out?

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It's a pretty good offseason to be looking for a first baseman.

Of B/R's top 25 free agents, two—Pete Alonso and Christian Walker—are first basemen.

Alonso homered 34 times and drove in 88 runs in what was considered a down season for him. Does power always age well? No. Could he end up DH-ing in the back-half of a deal? Maybe. But it feels like slugging first basemen have become like running backs in that there was an overcorrection to some bad contracts.

Alonso is entering his age-30 season and the B/R contract projection for him is five years and $135 million. If you want a slugger to hit cleanup for you, that would be a pretty good investment.

While Alonso is the No. 5 overall free agent on our list, Walker is 13th and offers another All-Star level option at first base.

The one downside with Walker is he'll turn 34 next March, but he has 30 home run power and has won three consecutive Gold Glove Awards. For him, we've projected a three-year, $60 million deal.

Neither Paul Goldschmidt nor Carlos Santana made our top 25 list, but both are accomplished veterans still capable of having productive stretches that will land one-year deals to be the starting first baseman for someone.

Another option for teams looking for a first baseman is trading for Josh Naylor, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reporting the Cleveland Guardians are "open to trade offers" for the slugging first baseman.

Naylor was an All-Star in 2024, hitting 31 home runs and driving in 108 runs. He's entering his contract year.

Will the Orioles Spend To Get a Big Arm?

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The Orioles traded for Corbin Burnes prior to his contract year, and he was excellent for them. En route to a fifth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting, he went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA and 3.55 FIP across 194.1 innings pitched.

It would be quite the statement for new owner David Rubenstein to authorize his front office to meet the free-agent asking price of the 30-year-old, who was projected to sign a seven-year, $224 million deal.

What seems more likely is they will make another major investment or two while collecting draft-pick compensation when Burnes—who rejected a qualifying offer—signs elsewhere.

On a prior slide, the O's trading for Crochet was examined. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported they are "in on" Max Fried.

MLB.com's Mark Feinsand has also noted Baltimore has interest in veteran righty Nathan Eovaldi.

The Orioles have done such a tremendous job developing position players, but they haven't built that same type of pipeline in terms of pitching.

As things stand, Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin—two talented pitchers with durability concerns—are the headliners in manager Brandon Hyde's starting rotation.

It feels like the Orioles need to add a pair of impact starters this winter.

How Many Stars Will Dodgers Re-Sign?

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have already inked two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to a five-year, $182 million deal, which includes $65 million in deferrals.

But who will they bring back from the team that just won the World Series?

Obviously, the biggest name to watch is Teoscar Hernández, who has been linked with a few teams but still makes the most sense for the Dodgers.

Because he declined the qualifying offer, any team other than L.A. that signs him would have to surrender draft compensation. The Dodgers wouldn't, and they would be wise to capitalize on that.

Hernández had a major rebound season after signing a pillow contract with the Dodgers last winter. Batting behind some of the game's elite hitters benefitted Hernández, who homered 33 times, drove in 99 runs and posted an .840 OPS. He also brings a positive energy that's hard to quantify in terms of value.

Particularly with the plan being to utilize Mookie Betts in the middle infield next year, getting a sure thing at one of the two corner outfield spots is arguably the biggest priority for the Dodgers. A three-year deal would make sense for both Hernández and L.A.

Beyond Hernández, Jack Flaherty and Kiké Hernández are among the other key free agents from the reigning world champions.

One thing you can be sure of is that there will be deferrals in any major contract the Dodgers give out.

Where Will Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander Continue Their Careers?

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Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are both in the twilight of their careers, and it will be interesting to see how the two future Hall of Famers are valued in free agency.

The 2024 campaign was kind of a lost one for Scherzer, who didn't make his season debut until late June after he had offseason back surgery.

It wasn't all smooth sailing from there, as he had injured-list stints because of right shoulder fatigue and a left hamstring strain. Still, he's been remarkably healthy for the bulk of his career, and he posted a 3.95 ERA across 10 starts for the Rangers, so he can still be effective when healthy.

Verlander, meanwhile, is a free agent again following his second stint with the Astros. He was legitimately bad over 17 starts this past season, posting a 5.48 ERA. He later admitted he rushed back from a neck injury, which contributed to his 9.26 ERA in September and getting left off the ALWCS roster.

There is a reality here that Scherzer is 40 years old and has logged 2,878 innings in his career. Verlander will turn 42 in February and has a staggering 3,415.2 innings logged in his historic career. Father Time might just finally be here for these two.

However, someone is going to sign each arm, hoping they can provide a veteran presence in their rotation in 2025. And as long as Scherzer and Verlander are on the mound, we're going to watch.

   

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