Juan Soto Steph Chambers/Getty Images

Predicting MLB Free Agent Signings and Trades During 2024 Winter Meetings

Kerry Miller

Winter is coming, but Major League Baseball's Winter Meetings are officially here.

Beginning on Sunday and running through Thursday, there will be all sorts of hobnobbing and elbow rubbing in Dallas as team executives and free agents (as well as agents of said free agents) converge for what we are all desperately hoping will be a more productive and entertaining Winter Meetings than last December's snoozefest.

There has been a whole lot of Juan Soto talk since long before the offseason began, and there is a burgeoning expectation that the signing of his possibly $700 million contract is imminent.

Once that happens, game on.

There have already been some major signings in the past few weeks, most notably Blake Snell to the Dodgers. But it has been trickles compared to the deluge that ought to follow once Soto decides where he is going to spend probably the rest of his career.

In hopes of that deluge occurring in the next 100 hours or so, we've put together one final list of predictions of the biggest signings and trades (and one notable non-trade) that will go down this week.

Juan Soto Re-Signs with the Yankees By Wednesday

Elsa/Getty Images

I've been bullish for months now that Juan Soto is going to stay with the Yankees, just like I never wavered on Aaron Judge staying with the Yankees two years ago, nor wavered on Shohei Ohtani landing with the Dodgers last winter.

No matter how many rumblings come out about Mets owner Steve Cohen being willing to spend $50M more than the next-best offer for Soto, the assumption remains that he will re-sign with the Yankees.

Because, really, what kind of negotiation tactic is that anyway?

When trying to buy a new house, you don't make a $600,000 offer with a "but I'm willing to pay $50k more than anyone else because I really, really want it" asterisk attached. Or if you could relay that message to the seller, you don't simultaneously leak it for all of the other prospective home-buyers to know about.

Maybe this all stems from Cohen still being upset about Yoshinobu Yamamoto choosing the Dodgers last winter, despite the fact that Cohen flew to Japan to meet with the star pitcher and reportedly offered the same amount of money that LA ultimately did.

And, who knows, maybe this does end up working out for the Mets.

It just comes across as kind of weak/very desperate, though, and might be their undoing in this bidding war.

If you're willing to go to $750M for Soto, just do it, regardless of whether there's a $700M offer on the table from someone else. Because the more the Mets try to song and dance their way to a win here, the more likely it is that Soto chooses the offer with a short porch in right field and Aaron Judge in the 3 hole, even if it ends up being for seven percent less money.

Seattle Mariners Trade for Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger Michael Reaves/Getty Images

There has been a lot of Cody Bellinger he-said she-said in recent weeks, and it all ends up coming back to an assumption that the Cubs would love to move Bellinger in a trade—albeit with Chicago publicly insisting otherwise in case, you know, it gets stuck with him and the price tag of either one year, $32.5M or two years, $52.5M if he exercises his player option for 2026.

That's a ton of money for a guy who was only particularly productive in one of the past four seasons, especially given the long list of quality first base or corner outfield bats still available in free agency.

The Cubs are probably going to need to include a decent chunk of change or another player (Nico Hoerner?) to grease the trade wheels.

But Seattle is desperate for bats and has plenty of trade assets to offer—both in the form of MLB-level pitching and high-potential, low-level-minors bats.

Notably, the Mariners probably aren't all that interested in signing a free agent hitter to a long-term deal, either. They have a lot of very talented arbitration-eligible players who are going to get more expensive over the next few years, compared to only a handful of players hitting free agency either this season or next. That could make even a three-year deal for Christian Walker difficult for them to pull off or justify, but it could make Bellinger's 1+1 situation appealing.

By no means does that mean they're going to give up one of their six starting pitchers for Bellinger without any money attached to him. The Cubs will still need to make it worth Seattle's while to take on potentially yet another not-great contract to join those of Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver. But they'll find the common ground as Bellinger becomes Plan A at first base for the Mariners in 2025.

Boston Lands One of the Two Remaining Aces

Corbin Burnes Greg Fiume/Getty Images

Whether it's Corbin Burnes or Max Fried remains to be seen.

The when is also up in the air, with Boston unlikely to pull the trigger on a massive deal with a pitcher until after it falls out of the running for Juan Soto.

But with Blake Snell, Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi and even Shane Bieber already off the board, Boston's desperation to sign a top-of-the-rotation starter is surely growing.

The Red Sox had the third-highest scoring offense in the American League last season, but they merely played .500 baseball because of their poor pitching. Similar story in each of 2022 and 2023, except they couldn't even get to .500, going 78-84 in each of those years.

They will be adding Lucas Giolito to the mix after he missed all of last season. That barely makes up for losing Nick Pivetta to free agency, though, and does nothing to address what has been a rough few years without a legitimate ace.

At any rate, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said at last month's GM meetings that they're looking to "raise the ceiling of the rotation" by adding an ace.

Now, could they do that by trading for Garrett Crochet instead of spending $200M on Burnes? Sure they could. But rather than waiting out that trade market, look for Boston to make a big splash for a free agent ace this week.

Houston Astros Trade for Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado Kevin Sousa/Getty Images

Six years, $156 million.

That's what USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported in late November that the Astros were offering Alex Bregman to stay in Houston, as well as what MLB.com's Brian McTaggart reported on Thursday.

We've also been told that Bregman is seeking at least a $200M deal.

Justifiably so, we might add, given the contracts Manny Machado ($350M), Rafael Devers ($313.5M) and other third basemen have signed in recent years. But that is a very large gap, and quite possibly an impassible one if another team (most likely Detroit) is willing to give Bregman the mega deal he's seeking.

If Houston is unable to retain Bregman, there has been talk of pivoting to signing Jorge Polanco to play the hot corner, in hopes that he can bounce back from what was a rough 2024 campaign with Seattle.

Why not Nolan Arenado, though, whose contract with three years and $58M remaining on it the Cardinals are actively shopping?

Ahead of his age-34 season, Arenado is no longer the perennial All-Star and heart-of-the-order slugger that he used to be. He's more valuable than Polanco, though, both at the plate and especially in the field, as Polanco has logged a grand total of 180 innings at third base in his career.

The only excuse Houston would have for not being interested in Arenado is that their last 3/$58(.5)M contract with an aging corner infielder was an absolute disaster, still literally paying the price of that José Abreu deal even after they released him last summer.

The Astros have to do something at either first base or third base, though, and trading for Arenado could be a great move if they're not willing to increase their offer to Bregman.

Phillies Sign Tanner Scott

Tanner Scott Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Over the past three years with the Miami Marlins (prior to the trade to San Diego), Tanner Scott was a persistent thorn in Philadelphia's side. He blew one save on a stunning Garrett Stubbs walk-off home run in June 2022, but he was otherwise just about untouchable against them, making a combined total of 14 other appearances with six saves and a 0.55 ERA.

Now, he's the top reliever on the market, and the Phillies have a rather dire need for back-of-the-bullpen arms with both Carlos Estévez and Jeff Hoffman out of the picture.

Frankly, it's a little surprising this marriage hasn't already happened.

Some of the holdup likely hinges on the frequent reports that the Phillies are looking to trade away Alec Bohm and/or Nick Castellanos. They already have quite a high payroll and perhaps can't justify signing Scott to what figures to be a three-year or four-year deal at $15M a pop unless they shed some salary elsewhere. Or maybe they've just been too busy with those negotiations to focus on their bullpen needs.

If they reach a point where they're reasonably confident they'll be able to make one of those trades happen eventually, though, that might be the moment when they greenlight the plan to sign a closer.

Garrett Crochet Does Not Get Moved This Week

Garrett Crochet Denis Poroy/Getty Images

It remains extremely likely, borderline downright inevitable that Garrett Crochet will be traded before Opening Day.

It probably won't happen this week, though.

That's because Chris Getz and the White Sox figure to wait to strike until when the iron is hottest, which for Crochet's trade market is shortly after the last of the top 10 or so free agent pitchers is off the board.

Suffice it to say, the number of teams looking to upgrade their rotation this offseason is much larger than the number of ace-caliber pitchers available. And while the Mets, Red Sox, Orioles, Giants, Blue Jays, Padres, Yankees and at least half a dozen other teams have dreams of landing a Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi or Sean Manaea, several teams are going to come away empty-handed.

With any luck in Chicago, at least one of those poor unfortunate souls will be a team with several highly touted position-player prospects and a suddenly enhanced longing to acquire Crochet.

We may be treated to a few Crochet rumblings, if only to justify the White Sox making the trip to Dallas when they have virtually no interest in signing free agents. But this is a glorified recon mission for them, laying the groundwork for what they hope will be a blockbuster a couple of weeks or months down the road.

The big catalyst in Crochet's market might be Roki Sasaki, who is expected to be officially posted this week, but who probably won't sign until at least January 15, when teams are able to begin spending from their 2025 international pool of funds. Once that colossal X-factor is off the board, look for a few teams to start badgering the White Sox about Crochet.

Mets Make Plenty of Noise, Too

Pete Alonso Al Bello/Getty Images

Between projecting Soto to the Yankees, at least one of the two aces to the Red Sox and the top reliever to the Phillies, it might seem like we're expecting the Mets to come away from the Winter Meetings with little more than a lot of frustration.

On the contrary, they'll be plenty busy once the Soto-sized floodgates open.

They'll re-sign Pete Alonso to something like a seven-year, $182M deal.

They'll snag whichever of Corbin Burnes and Max Fried the Red Sox don't take. (Signing Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes didn't take the Mets out of that market.)

They may well reel in both halves of Arizona's 2024 DH platoon (Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk) to replace JD Martinez and help with outfield depth.

They'll also add one reliever of note, along the lines of an A.J. Minter, Paul Sewald or a reunion with David Robertson.

Maybe it takes a few hours to go through the five stages of grief after missing out on Soto, but they'll get to acceptance in a relative hurry and pivot to Plan B for building on last year's run to the NLCS.

   

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