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College Football Playoff: Final 2024 CFB Playoff and Bowl Game Projections

David Kenyon

INDIANAPOLIS — And now, the wait begins.

Between Friday and Saturday's action, 10 programs celebrated a conference championship. That achievement should not be lost in the impending drama of Sunday's last College Football Playoff rankings.

But there's no question that Selection Day—and the CFP committee's pick between—is the main storyline.

Who will round out the Playoff field?

These bowl projections are a mix of officially announced/reported games and typical predictions. Finalized matchups are denoted with an asterisk.

Group of 5 Games

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*Salute to Veterans Bowl (Dec. 14): Western Michigan vs. South Alabama
*Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18): Western Kentucky vs. James Madison
*New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 19): Sam Houston vs. Georgia Southern
*Cure Bowl (Dec. 20): Jacksonville State vs. Ohio
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
*Hawai'i Bowl (Dec. 24): South Florida vs. San Jose State
GameAbove Sports Bowl (Dec. 26): Toledo vs. Marshall
68Ventures (Dec. 26): Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 28): North Texas vs. Louisiana
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 28): Miami (Ohio) vs. Colorado State
Independence Bowl (Dec. 28): Army vs. Texas State
*Bahamas Bowl (Jan. 4): Liberty vs. Buffalo

Clash of Champions: Cure Bowl

Talk about emphatic wins, my word. Jacksonville State obliterated Western Kentucky in impressive fashion, racking up 562 yards while surrendering only 229 in a 52-12 blowout to win Conference USA. Ohio followed suit in the MAC title, posting a 467-189 yardage edge in a 31-3 triumph over in-state foe Miami. They'll square off in the Cure Bowl.

G5 vs. P4 Matchups

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*Frisco Bowl (Dec. 17): Memphis vs. West Virginia
LA Bowl (Dec. 18): UNLV vs. Cal
Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20): Tulane vs. Vanderbilt
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 23): Coastal Carolina vs. North Carolina
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 27): Navy vs. Texas Tech
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28): Connecticut vs. Virginia Tech
Military Bowl (Dec. 28): East Carolina vs. Boston College
First Responder (Jan. 3): UTSA vs. Arkansas

Interim Game: Frisco Bowl

After the regular season ended, West Virginia moved on from Neal Brown following his 37-35 record in six years. The interim boss is offensive coordinator Chad Scott. The challenge for Scott, considering his coaching strength, will be overseeing preparation for the opposite side of the ball. WVU's reeling defense must contain a Memphis offense that is top-20 nationally in points per game.

Power 4 Bowls, Part 1

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Rate Bowl (Dec. 26): Rutgers vs. TCU
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27): North Carolina State vs. Oklahoma
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 27): Kansas State vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27): Georgia Tech vs. Washington State
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27): USC vs. Texas A&M
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28): Pitt vs. Nebraska
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28): Miami vs. Iowa State
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28): BYU vs. Colorado

First-Time Matchups: Rate and Pop-Tarts Bowls

Before we drift too far, these are unofficial games. If these predictions happen, however, it would be the first time for two contests: Rutgers vs. TCU and Miami vs. Iowa State. Although the CFP tends to dominate our postseason conversations, these unique games are part of why bowl season is still fun.

Realignment Special: Alamo Bowl

Congratulations on quality seasons, BYU and Colorado! Thanks to realignment, your reward is a conference game. The bright side is the regular season didn't include a clash between the programs—which is certainly a reason for this potential game—so it's not like a rematch is coming. But as former Pac-12 teams fill their previous league's bowl tie-ins, this kind of contest is possible in 2024 and 2025.

Power 4 Bowls, Part 2

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Music City Bowl (Dec. 30): Michigan vs. Ole Miss
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Iowa vs. Florida
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31): Louisville vs. Washington
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Illinois vs. Alabama
Texas Bowl (Dec. 31): Baylor vs. LSU
Gator Bowl (Jan. 2): Syracuse vs. South Carolina
Mayo Bowl (Jan. 3): Duke vs. Minnesota

The Consolation Game: Citrus Bowl

Where will the CFP selection committee place SMU? Will the ACC runner-up finish ahead of Alabama or behind the Crimson Tide? That answer will determine if SMU or Bama heads to the Playoff. I'm projecting 11-2 SMU to finish in front of the 9-3 Tide, who would presumably play in the Citrus Bowl as the SEC's highest-ranked non-CFP team.

Old Friend Alert: Texas Bowl

Prior to becoming the head coach at Baylor in 2020, Dave Aranda spent four years as LSU's defensive coordinator. In his last season, he oversaw a unit that complemented the Joe Burrow-led offensive juggernaut that led LSU to a national title in 2019. This would be the first game between the programs since the 1985 Liberty Bowl.

College Football Playoff

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First-Round Byes

The five highest-ranked conference champions (*) will automatically earn a CFP berth, and the four highest-ranked of that group will be placed in the quarterfinals. While this quartet is assumed to be from the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC), that's not guaranteed.

No. 1: Oregon*, Big Ten champion in Rose Bowl
No. 2 Georgia*, SEC champion in Sugar Bowl
No. 3: Boise State* MWC champion in Fiesta Bowl
No. 4: Arizona State*, Big 12 champion in Peach Bowl

First-Round Games

No. 12 SMU at No. 5 Texas (winner to Peach Bowl)
No. 11 Clemson* (ACC champion) at No. 6 Penn State (winner to Fiesta Bowl)
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame (winner to Sugar Bowl)
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State (winner to Rose Bowl)

Bubble Team: SMU Mustangs

When the Mustangs fell behind 14-0 in five minutes, they officially entered the danger zone. The consensus thought was SMU, in a competitive loss, should be a Playoff team. But if that result was a blowout, it would give the CFP selection committee a path to a controversial pick. I believe SMU should be in. Are we really going to start penalizing teams for making a conference title game? But I'm certainly not ruling out the possibility Bama jumps SMU.

   

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