During the 2020-21 men's college basketball season, Gonzaga carried an undefeated record all the way to the national championship game before suffering its first loss. That run came six years after the 2014-15 Kentucky team that went 38-0 before losing in the Final Four.

Over the past three years, however, no one has even come close to matching those marks, with the final undefeated teams falling on Jan. 11, Jan. 3 and Jan. 9 in recent seasons.

And a little over five weeks into the current campaign, we are already down to just seven teams still standing with a zero in the loss column. (Would've been eight, but Rhode Island lost in double overtime at Brown on Tuesday.)

Who wins this annual survivor contest?

For each of the remaining undefeateds, we used KenPom win probabilities to calculate the chance that they will be undefeated on each of Jan. 1, Feb. 1 and at the end of the regular season (not including conference tournaments).

Teams are presented in chronological order of their first projected loss.

Please note that this methodology means teams are not listed in order of their overall likelihood to go undefeated. Notably, UC Irvine is more than four times as likely to run the table as the team with the next-best odds, but the Anteaters are expected to lose on Saturday, making them the first team that we'll discuss.

UC Irvine Anteaters

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 21.1 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 4.3 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 0.66 percent

First Projected Loss: Dec. 14 at Oregon State

Here's a fun fact: There's only one game left on the schedule that UC Irvine is supposed to lose.

It just so happens to be the next one on the Anteaters' schedule.

KenPom has that game against the Beavers as a virtual tossup, giving UCI a 47 percent chance of winning what is projected for a 67-66 final.

Should they make it through the weekend unscathed, though, the Anteaters—who are already more than three times as likely to run the table as any other team still standing—would improve to a 1.3 percent chance of an undefeated season. And once it gets above one percent is when it actually starts to feel attainable.

They've been fantastic on defense thus far.

During their clean sweep of Kennesaw State, Kent State and Towson in the Western Slam, the Anteaters allowed a combined total of 158 points in 204 possessions.

Those are respectable foes, too, all ranking top 50 percent in the nation via KenPom. But UCI has held all but one of its opponents below one point per possession.

The Anteaters pretty much always have been better on defense than offense in their 15 years under Russell Turner, but never quite this good.

Even if their quest for a perfect season ends in a few days, this is already looking like a dangerous Cinderella candidate.

Loyola Chicago Ramblers

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 5.7 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.02 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 0.0002 percent

First Projected Loss: Dec. 15 vs. San Francisco (in Milwaukee)

It should be noted from the jump that we're taking some artistic liberties with Loyola Chicago's percentages, in order to account for the latter stages of the upcoming Diamond Head Classic. In theory, the Ramblers would face Oklahoma State in the semifinals and Nebraska in the championship, with roughly 50 and 40 percent chances of winning those games on a neutral court, given the respective KenPom rankings.

Let's see if they even make it to that Dec. 22-25 tournament with a zero still in the loss column, though, as the Ramblers have a tough one against San Francisco before they board that flight to Hawai'i.

Great vibes heading into that game, though, as Loyola Chicago is 8-0 for the first time since the 1962-63 season—when it won the only national championship in program history.

These Ramblers have a long, long way to go before matching that 21-0 start from more than six decades ago, but they do have a little something brewing with Drexel transfer Justin Moore running the offense and racking up better than six assists per game.

Notably, though, Loyola Chicago has yet to face a KenPom Top 100 opponent, nor has it defeated a KenPom Top 200 foe by more than five points. We're all interested to find out what happens when the first real test arrives on Sunday.

Drake Bulldogs

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 31.2 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 1.2 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 0.03 percent

First Projected Loss: Dec. 17 vs. Kansas State (in Kansas City)

Drake winning the Charleston Classic was arguably the biggest surprise development in all of Feast Week.

Each of the other seven teams in that field entered the first day of the tournament rated top-100 on KenPom, with one of VCU (34th), Nevada (38th) or Miami (46th) expected to win. Yet, 124th-ranked Drake not only won it, but also won each of its games against Miami, Florida Atlantic and Vanderbilt by double digits.

And thus began the legend of Bennett Stirtz.

A JUCO transfer from Northwest Missouri State, Stirtz has not come out of a game since getting a brief respite on Nov. 10 against Stephen F. Austin, playing in 99.6 percent of possible minutes against D-I competition—and shouldering a heavy load in the process. He averaged 18.0 points, 7.7 assists and 5.0 rebounds in the Charleston Classic.

In Drake's Missouri Valley opener at Valparaiso last week, it seemed like every possession in the final 10 minutes came down to Stirtz. He finished with 29 of Drake's 66 points, plus five rebounds, four assists and no turnovers.

His fame might not rise quite to the level that Robbie Avila's did last season, but let's just say the Valley has yet another instant sensation on its hands.

Drake has a tough one coming up next Tuesday against Kansas State. The Wildcats have been a disappointment thus far, but they are loaded with talent and will be dangerous if it ever coalesces.

Should Drake survive that one, though, the only games left on the schedule against KenPom Top 100 competition are the two against Bradley—on the road Jan. 8 and at home Feb. 16.

Oklahoma Sooners

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 25.3 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.04 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: if pigs fly

First Projected Loss: Dec. 18 vs. Michigan (in Charlotte)

While maybe not quite as shocking as Drake winning the Charleston Classic, Oklahoma winning the Battle 4 Atlantis was certainly unexpected.

It didn't hurt the Sooners' chances that Gonzaga immediately lost to West Virginia, removing one of the biggest hurdles from this team's path to a title. Still, they had to go through Providence, Arizona and Louisville to get the job done, winning those three games by a combined margin of 12 points.

Oklahoma is menacing on defense, averaging better than 10 steals per game. And in the B4A opener against the Friars, the Sooners scored 23 points off turnovers, needing every last one of those buckets to get the win.

Beyond the steals, though, the jury is still out on whether Oklahoma is a legitimate threat for damage this season. The Sooners pretty much need the steals to make up for mediocre rebounding, and they've allowed three-point attempts at a sky-high rate—opponents just haven't been hitting them yet.

Heck, the jury's still out on whether the Sooners will even make the NCAA tournament, projected by KenPom to go 8-10 in SEC play. Could be a repeat of the 2015-16 season when South Carolina started out 15-0 before crashing and burning in SEC play and settling for a No. 1 seed in the NIT.

It'll largely hinge on Jeremiah Fears.

Like Tahaad Pettiford at Auburn, Fears is the lone freshman in a sea of fourth-year and fifth-year seniors, but is also relentlessly unafraid to take over a game, putting up 26 points in that win over Arizona.

He's not exactly a Blake Griffin or Trae Young level of freshman sensation, but Fears' play will determine this team's ceiling in its first year in the SEC.

Utah State Aggies

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 2.4 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.4 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 0.008 percent

First Projected Loss: Dec. 22 at Saint Mary's

It is truly ridiculous that Utah State just keeps churning out a contender through near-annual coaching changes and complete roster overhauls. Jerrod Calhoun is their fifth unique head coach since 2018, yet with an early NET ranking in the top 20, it's looking likely that the Aggies will be dancing for the fifth time in the midst of that constant flux.

It's not going to be with a zero in the loss column, though.

With just a 2.4 percent chance of making it to New Year's Day without a loss, it's about to get rough in a hurry for the Aggies. Not only do they end nonconference play with a road game against a solid Saint Mary's team, but they open Mountain West play in the most brutal fashion possible with back-to-back road games against San Diego State and Nevada.

That's three games in the span of 10 days, all on the road, against teams that are either in the projected field or just outside it.

Quite the ask from a Utah State team that barely ranks top 50 on KenPom.

But maybe the Aggies can handle it?

They did already win neutral-site games against Iowa, North Texas and St. Bonaventure, leaning on a turnover-forcing defense and one of the best offensive rebounding units in the nation to get those Ws. They've gotten a lot out of sophomore leader Mason Falslev, too, averaging 22.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 2.0 steals in those three wins.

A prediction: Utah State loses two of those three games later this month, but finishes the regular season with six or fewer total losses.

Florida Gators

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 43.3 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 1.7 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 0.002 percent

First Projected Loss: Jan. 4 at Kentucky

While Florida's first projected L isn't until early January, a loss within the next seven days is more likely than not. The Gators have Arizona State—a team that has very much outperformed its predictive metrics thus far—in Atlanta on Saturday, followed by a "neutral" game in Charlotte against North Carolina on Tuesday.

KenPom puts their chances of winning both games at 44 percent, but that feels pretty generous, even if they are legitimately one of the 10 best teams in the nation.

Whether that first loss comes this week or early next month, though, it's almost certainly going to be followed by a few more, as the Gators drew the short straw in the SEC gauntlet. They've been dealt two games against Tennessee as well as road games against each of Auburn, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi State and Arkansas.

And that's how the No. 8 team on KenPom ends up with a 0.002 percent chance of running the table.

Even the near 40-0 Kentucky team from a decade ago might've dropped half a dozen games against this slate.

To be clear, though, the Gators have been mighty impressive early on, particularly making a mockery of the ACC with a 13-point win at Florida State, a 17-point neutral win over Wake Forest and an 18-point home win over Virginia. That game against the 'Noles was Florida's closest of the season, too, boasting an average scoring margin of 20.4 points.

Florida Atlantic transfer Alijah Martin and the frontcourt tandem of Washington State transfer Rueben Chinyelu and Chattanooga transfer Sam Alexis have all been fantastic additions.

[We'll see if Todd Golden is still coaching this team by the end of the year, though.]

Tennessee Volunteers

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 58.5 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 3.0 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 0.15 percent

First Projected Loss: Jan. 25 at Auburn

Much like Florida, Tennessee has been putting a serious hurtin' on the ACC.

The Volunteers won by 22 at Louisville less than a week into the season, smoked Virginia by 22 in the Baha Mar Hoops MTE, destroyed a JJ Starling-less Syracuse by 26 in the ACC-SEC "Challenge" and dispatched Miami by 13 in the Jimmy V Classic.

Tennessee also throttled Baylor the day after pummeling Virginia in paradise, jumping out to a 44-18 lead in that one before ultimately winning by 15.

North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier is stealing all the headlines, averaging 23.6 points in his first five games against power conference foes and averaging just under four made triples per game.

But Lanier's Dalton Knecht impression is merely one piece of the puzzle here.

Tennessee also has probably the best defense in the nation, with Zakai Zeigler, Jordan Gainey and Jahmai Mashack generating a bunch of steals, able to be super aggressive in that department because Igor Milicic, Felix Oxpara and Cade Phillips are anchoring an elite rebounding and rim-protection frontcourt.

For most of Rick Barnes' decade in Knoxville, the Vols have ranked well outside the top 100 in effective field-goal percentage. This year's squad is No. 2 in that department, with Lanier hitting nearly 50 percent of his three-point attempts while every other regular in the rotation shoots at least 60 percent from inside the arc.

Put this team in the ACC or Big East and running the table becomes a real possibility. But in the SEC with two games against Florida, two games against Kentucky, a home game against Alabama and a road game against Auburn—the latter the only one on the schedule that Tennessee is expected to lose—an undefeated season seems just about impossible.

And that's if the Vols even make it to SEC play without first losing at Illinois this Saturday.