Bleacher Report

College Football Playoff 2024: Full Bowl Predictions amid Latest Bracket Scenarios

Jake Rill

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff is nearly here. The first-round matchups featuring the Nos. 5-12 seeds that will be held on the campuses of the higher-ranked teams are set to take place over a two-day span on Dec. 20-21.

But first, it's time for conference championship week.

Conference champions will be crowned this weekend, and some of the title games will help finalize the CFP bracket. There are still playoff berths up for grabs, and some teams could go up or down the rankings based on what happens.

Let's break down the College Football Playoff landscape heading into the big weekend.

Who Are the Locks to Make the CFP?

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No. 1 Oregon (12-0, 9-0 in Big Ten)
If the Ducks win the Big Ten championship on Saturday, they should secure the No. 1 seed in the CFP field. But even a loss to Penn State is unlikely to knock Oregon out of the playoff, although it would then have to play a first-round game, likely as the host.

No. 2 Texas (11-1, 7-1 in SEC)
The Longhorns have an opportunity to avenge their lone loss of the season in Saturday's SEC Championship Game when they face Georgia. If Texas has two losses (both to the Bulldogs), it will still make it into the CFP.

No. 3 Penn State (11-1, 8-1 in Big Ten)
The Nittany Lions have an opportunity to make a huge statement in Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game. But a two-loss Penn State team (with those defeats coming against Ohio State and Oregon) still gets into the playoff.

No. 4 Notre Dame (11-1)
The Fighting Irish are an independent program, so they have no more games to play. Their resume is strong enough to get them into the CFP, though, as they rebounded from an early-season loss to Northern Illinois to string together 10 straight wins.

No. 5 Georgia (10-2, 6-2 in SEC)
It would help the Bulldogs to again beat Texas in Saturday's SEC Championship Game. But a three-loss Georgia team would likely still make the CFP over three-loss Alabama because of its earlier win against the Longhorns (who would be the SEC champions in this scenario).

No. 6 Ohio State (10-2, 7-2 in Big Ten)
The Buckeyes' home loss to Michigan in the regular-season finale knocked them out of the Big Ten Championship Game. But it didn't change the fact that Ohio State is still headed to the CFP, thanks to its quality victories over Penn State and Indiana and its one-point loss to Oregon.

No. 7 Tennessee (10-2, 6-2 in SEC)
The Vols didn't make it to the SEC Championship Game, but their two-loss resume (with defeats against Arkansas and Georgia) will be enough to get them into the CFP. It helps that Tennessee owns a head-to-head win over Alabama.

No. 9 Indiana (11-1, 8-1 in Big Ten)
Although the Hoosiers didn't have the toughest strength of schedule, they still racked up 11 wins while playing a Big Ten slate, with their only loss coming at Ohio State. Indiana has done enough to reach the CFP.

Which Teams Projected to Make It Could Still Miss Out?

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No. 8 SMU (11-1, 8-0 in ACC)
The Mustangs can punch their ticket to the CFP by beating Clemson in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday. But will SMU still make it with two losses (one of which came vs. BYU in the regular season)? That will be up to the selection committee to decide. There's a chance the Mustangs could fall out, so they won't want to leave it up to that.

No. 10 Boise State (11-1, 7-0 in Mountain West)
It seems unlikely the CFP selection committee would put two Group of Five schools in the 12-team field. So the Broncos need to take care of business on Friday when they face UNLV in the Mountain West Championship Game. A win should secure them a top-four seed with a first-round bye.

No. 11 Alabama (9-3, 5-3 in SEC)
Alabama is currently projected to reach the CFP just ahead of Miami, and neither team made it to a conference championship game. It's still possible the Crimson Tide fall out, though, if Clemson wins the ACC title and the selection committee ranks SMU ahead of Alabama.

No. 15 Arizona State (10-2, 7-2 in Big 12)
The Big 12 champion will be the final team to make it into the CFP field. That could be Arizona State if it defeats Iowa State in Saturday's conference championship game. The Sun Devils had a surprisingly successful season in their first year in the Big 12.

Which Teams on the Outside Could Still Play Their Way In?

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No. 16 Iowa State (10-2, 7-2 in Big 12)
The only way Iowa State will make the CFP is if it beats Arizona State in Saturday's Big 12 Championship Game. The Cyclones bounced back from consecutive losses to Texas Tech and Kansas to win their final three games of the regular season.

No. 17 Clemson (9-3, 7-1 in ACC)
Clemson lost its regular-season finale vs. South Carolina. However, Miami lost at Syracuse, which allowed the Tigers to make it to the ACC Championship Game. If Clemson defeats SMU, then it will be headed to the CFP for the seventh time.

No. 20 UNLV (10-2, 6-1 in Mountain West)
It's widely believed Boise State will win Friday's Mountain West Championship Game. But if UNLV scores an upset, it will be heading to the CFP instead. The Rebels lost 29-24 to the Broncos on Oct. 25, then reeled off four straight wins to close out the regular season.

   

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