Just over a quarter of the way through the 2024-25 NBA season, it's time to take stock of the rookie class and forecast which first-year players will wind up populating the All-Rookie teams.

This'll be a "good news, bad news" exercise, as several of the top overall picks won't make the cut while a number of late-lottery options will. In fact, we've even got a second-rounder in the mix.

We'll make predictions based mostly on what these rookies have done so far, but we'll also try to guess at which ones could make their cases stronger as circumstances around them change. That'll result in a combination of undeniable early producers like Jared McCain and Dalton Knecht alongside speculative cases like Chicago Bulls highlight machine Matas Buzelis.

First Team: Jared McCain, Philadelphia 76ers

The only consistent bright spot in a gloomy season for the Philadelphia 76ers, Jared McCain burst onto the scene in early November and strung together seven straight games with at least 20 points over a 12-day stretch.

Despite starting the season on the fringes of Philly's rotation, McCain is the leader among rookies in total points scored and is the only first-year player with at least 45 made threes and 45 assists. Strong shooting and efficiency stats were the expectation, as McCain was among the most bankable marksmen in the 2024 class. The on-ball verve he's shown rates as more of a surprise, and it's been integral to his case as the front-runner for Rookie of the Year.

When Paul George is available, head coach Nick Nurse is sending McCain to the bench. Philadelphia is also wary of pairing him with fellow undersized, defensively iffy guard Tyrese Maxey. Those issues could cut into the rookie's productivity, but assuming good health for anyone on the Sixers roster has been a mistake this season. And it's also possible McCain could find it even easier to get his numbers against backups if he comes off the bench more often.

First Team: Dalton Knecht, Los Angeles Lakers

Say what you want about the limited upside of a 23-year-old rookie, but don't let that distract from the fact that Dalton Knecht is a useful NBA rotation player right now.

That's more than almost every other rookie in this class can say, and Knecht's carrying skill, three-point shooting, remains a prized commodity. Capable of canning treys on the move and deadly from a standstill, Knecht already bends defenses whether he has the ball or not.

An added benefit of so much collegiate experience: Knecht has tremendous offensive feel, which shows up in timely cuts, smart connective passing and a general level of poise you don't often get in first-year players.

Maybe Knecht has limited room for improvement. Good thing he's already a 40.0 percent three-point shooter with good size and savvy.

First Team: Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs

Though he lacks the overall efficiency numbers of McCain and Knecht, San Antonio Spurs rookie Stephon Castle might have both of them beat in the "flashes of brilliance" department.

A tremendous run-and-jump athlete who has already shown advanced floor-reading chops, Castle has a chance to be truly special if he can get the ball to go in the basket a little more often. Though he's been more efficient from the field and from deep since earning a starting job, the UConn product has the lowest true shooting percentage in the league among players who've attempted at least 200 shots.

It's particularly hard to understand how a player with his 6'6" size and electrifying downhill burst is only shooting 45.8 percent on two-pointers.

Defensively, Castle is already a force that the Spurs trust on top assignments. Devin Booker, Stephen Curry and De'Aaron Fox are all atop his list of most frequent matchups this season.

Castle is in the top five in minutes, points, assists and steals among rookies, and his mix of physical tools and well-developed basketball IQ gives him a great shot of snatching Rookie of the Year from McCain or Knecht.

First Team: Jaylen Wells, Memphis Grizzlies

Easily the biggest surprise among top-end rookies to this point in the season, Jaylen Wells leads the class in Estimated Plus/Minus and has started more games than everyone but Zaccharie Rissacher and Alex Sarr, the top two selections in the draft.

Not bad for the No. 38 pick.

Wells may not be a star, but he's already an established two-way starter on a Memphis Grizzlies team that means business in the West. A capable wing defender who's spent time guarding everyone from Tyrese Haliburton to LeBron James, Wells is also shooting 38.3 percent from deep on the third-highest long-range volume of any rookie. That's a three-and-D makeup most teams would have happily taken with their lottery picks, but Memphis got him a third of the way into the second round.

Any improvements as an on-ball weapon would be icing on the cake, and Wells has shown some signs he can do more than spot up. He's shooting 50.0 percent on the few pull-up triples he's attempted and has five games with at least three assists in the early going.

First Team: Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks

Averages of 11.6 points and 3.5 rebounds on a 41.4/29.1/68.3 shooting split don't exactly paint Zaccharie Risacher as a first-teamer, but the eye test validates his status in spite of those rough numbers.

The Atlanta Hawks wing has great size for the position at 6'9" and has already shown a knack for being in the right spots defensively. Atlanta's defensive rating is 3.4 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor.

Risacher tends to make the right reads as a passer, can put the ball on the deck and is craftier than most rookies when it comes to getting to the line. He draws shooting fouls on 10.3 percent of his field-goal attempts, which ranks in the top third at his position.

With accuracy rates as low as Risacher's have been this season, efficiency is clearly a concern. But he shoots an easy ball, and there's nothing concerning about his form. Odds are Risacher's three-point conversion rate will climb. And even with his shooting struggles, he still leads all rookies with 15 double-digit scoring games.

Second Team: Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies

Zach Edey could earn a spot on the first team if volume weren't a consideration, but injuries have limited him to about half the total playing time of healthier rookies like Risacher and Wells so far.

When healthy, the 7'4" center is elite on the boards and excels in generating second-chance points. His 15.1 percent offensive rebound rate is in the 97th percentile among big men. Edey is also in the top quartile in both block and steal rate, has shown great touch all the way out to the three-point line and has survived in space on defense. That last part was a real concern for him coming out of college.

Prior to going down with the ankle injury that shelved him on Nov. 17, Edey was averaging 20.0 points, 12.4 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per 36 minutes.

Second Team: Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers

Donovan Clingan's per-minute production was in many ways more impressive than Edey's, but his injury is also more severe. A sprained MCL put the Portland Trail Blazers shot-swatting center on ice in late November, ending a streak of increasingly intriguing performances.

Clingan blocked eight shots in 31 minutes against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Nov. 13, rejected at least two per game in each of the next four contests and grabbed 19 rebounds in 26 minutes against the Houston Rockets, the game in which he suffered the knee injury.

His 6.2 blocks per 100 possessions leads the entire NBA.

Plenty of questions remain about Clingan's offensive role and ability to extend his amazing rate stats over longer stretches of playing time (not to mention the impact his knee may have on mobility), but he's clearly one of the 10 best rookies this season. As long as he makes it back before too long, his relatively low minute total shouldn't keep him off the second team.

Second Team: Yves Missi, New Orleans Pelicans

A regular starter since late October, Yves Missi has been one of the lone positives in a brutal opening stretch for the New Orleans Pelicans. Though he came with nothing close to the hype or pedigree of Edey, Clingan and No. 2 pick Alex Sarr, the Baylor center has outperformed all of his big-man counterparts to date.

That's not to say Missi has the same upside as anyone on that list, but there's something to be said for immediate production.

Missi is on pace to grab nearly 200 more rebounds than anyone else in this rookie class, and he's already in the top five in total blocks, free throws and minutes played. Though not called upon as a major scorer, his 57.7 true shooting percentage is still fourth among rookies who've attempted at least 140 shots. Only McCain, Knecht and Wells have been more efficient on higher volume.

Second Team: Bub Carrington, Washington Wizards

We need the eye test to justify Bub Carrington's All-Rookie prediction, because the numbers are bleak. Not as bleak as his teammate Alex Sarr's, who's been the most statistically damaging high-minute first-year player in the league, but still pretty rough.

Carrington owns a minus-4.6 EPM, which puts him in the third percentile league-wide. Most of that owes to low usage and a 51.3 true shooting percentage that clocks in well below the league average.

To Carrington's credit, he's shown the ability to get to spots on the floor, has good size for a primary ball-handler and rates in the 81st percentile in assist-to-usage rate, another way to say he tends to make the most of his passes.

He projects to have good feel on both ends and joins Castle, who's a year older, as the only rookies with at least 80 assists and 20 steals on the season. There's a capable two-way guard in there somewhere. Maybe he'll emerge more clearly as the season progresses.

Second Team: Matas Buzelis, Chicago Bulls

Tristan da Silva should get even more opportunities to produce with Franz Wagner joining Paolo Banchero on the injury report, but Chicago Bulls wing Matas Buzelis has shown just enough flashes in limited playing time to snag the last spot.

Buzelis has yet to start and has only logged 20 minutes three times, but his athleticism, confidence and "make things happen" game will be hard to keep on the bench much longer, especially with the Bulls being so likely to ship out veterans and open up more minutes.

Buzelis put up a career-high 20 points in 21 minutes against the Brooklyn Nets on Dec. 2, grabbed seven boards in 18 minutes on Dec. 5 and swatted two shots versus the Pacers the next night. He's a difference-making athlete who plays extremely hard, runs the floor and operates strictly in attack mode.

Predicting he'll make an All-Rookie team, despite such limited exposure to date, is all about making sure we're on the right side of history.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Dec. 8. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.