The Los Angeles Lakers are two games over .500 during a season in which parity is likely to be a story throughout. Through Wednesday's slate of games, nine teams (almost a third of the league) are within three games of .500 (in either direction).
So, why does it feel like the sky is falling on this 12-10 L.A. squad? Why were so many Lakers fans on social media doing their best Chicken Littles?
In short, they've seen this story before. The only difference might be the sad ending is being foreshadowed a little earlier than usual.
Yes, L.A. is still over .500 and in the West's play-in picture, but after Wednesday's 134-93 drubbing at the hands of the Miami Heat, the Lakers are being outscored by 3.9 points per 100 possessions on the season.
Only eight teams, five of which entered 2023-24 as fairly obvious tanking candidates, have worse net ratings. And through 22 games, the 2024-25 Lakers have one fewer win than last season's squad did at the same point.
Why is this happening? And is there any way for L.A. to reverse course on this crisis?
Scroll below to find out.
LeBron Is Finally Showing Signs of Age
It took over 20 years, but LeBron James is finally showing signs that he's a basketball mortal.
Of course, even that statement is relative with him. He turns 40 this month and is still averaging 22.3 points, 9.0 assists and 7.9 rebounds. Those basic numbers are absurd for a player his age.
But prior to going 1-of-4 from deep in Wednesday's loss, LeBron had missed 20 straight triples over a span of five games. He's also averaged a whopping 5.2 turnovers over his last 12 games. And for the entire season, his steal rate of 0.9 per 100 possessions is on track to be the lowest, by a pretty significant margin, of his entire career.
In other words, he is giving opponents a lot more possessions than he used to in the form of missed jumpers and good old-fashioned giveaways. And he's not taking many back with steals.
Combine that kind of play from your lead playmaker with some stunningly bad effort on defense, and you have a recipe for losing.
Again, what LeBron is doing, relative to others who made it to this age in the NBA, is remarkable. But he and the franchise he plays for are judged on titles and whether they win them.
A quarter into this season, he simply doesn't look good enough to lead the Lakers all the way. And the rigors of a full NBA campaign could make this even worse.
Right now might be as good a time as any to see if some rest might do LeBron good.
After a blowout loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves earlier in the week, Lakers head coach JJ Redick acknowledged it might not be in the "best interest" of the franchise for LeBron to play all 82 games.
And this season, they're actually dramatically worse when he plays.
It might be time for a few "injury management" absences to help him and the team reset physically and mentally.
They Can't Stop Anyone
Regardless of how LeBron is performing offensively, though, L.A. simply isn't good enough on the other end of the floor to be considered a serious contender.
After Wednesday's beatdown, its defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) swelled to a ghastly 118.0. Only the Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans and Washington Wizards are worse.
And what may be most concerning is the fact that the Lakers actually give up more when Anthony Davis is on the floor. Just this week, he popped up in the news for griping (again) about not having a Defensive Player of the Year among his career accolades.
Of course, it's not fair to place all the blame for this lackluster defense on him. He's often on the floor with a near-40-year-old wing who's not afraid to conserve some energy on that end. Austin Reaves and rookie Dalton Knecht aren't exactly guaranteed lockdowns on the perimeter. D'Angelo Russell's defense has long been the target of mockery.
The problem, as is the case with just about any bad defense at any level, is a team one. Scenes like the one above aren't rare. Rotations are often missed. And the effort is often embarrassing.
You really have to care about defense to be good at it. And right now, at the very least, L.A. doesn't look like it cares.
The Shooting Conundrum
Part of that, again, is just based on the fact that the Lakers don't have a lot of good perimeter defenders.
Cam Reddish and Gabe Vincent may be a little better equipped to guard than Reaves and Knecht, but both are woefully inefficient shooters.
Even with Reaves and Knecht in the rotation, L.A. is 27th in the league in threes per game and tied for 19th in three-point percentage. If the roles of either or both are reduced, those already-dubious numbers would get even scarier.
And with LeBron understandably leaning a bit harder into his playmaking than his scoring this season, you want to surround him with as much shooting as possible.
Given what he's shown on defense, it'd be nice to surround him with mobile, active defenders, too.
The Lakers' problem, at least on this front, is they don't really have anyone who thoroughly checks both boxes. Their shooters struggle to defend. Their defenders struggle to shoot.
Not having the right players is tough to overcome.
This Isn't a Title-Contending Roster
Basketball Reference defines roster continuity "as the [percentage] of a team's regular season minutes that were filled by players from the previous season's roster," and there are only five 2024-25 teams that top L.A. in that category.
The Lakers brought, more or less, the same team back. And that team just got bounced in the first round.
Its leader in total minutes played turns 40 this month. It used a roster spot and a draft pick on his son, who showed long before the draft that he's not NBA-ready.
Rui Hachimura, Vincent, Max Christie and Reddish are all in the team's top nine in total minutes played, and all four have below-replacement-level box plus/minuses for their careers.
In other words, statistically, they've performed like "end-of-bench players" for the bulk of their time in the NBA.
And again, other fixtures in the rotation have glaring weaknesses.
Reaves and Russell are constantly targeted as defenders. Russell compounds his weakness by often being a loose cannon on the other end. And after showing some promise early in the season, AD's three-point shot has fallen off in recent weeks.
In short, this roster probably wouldn't be good enough to compete for a title with 35-year-old LeBron. It's almost certainly not good enough with the soon-to-be-40-year-old version.
Rob Pelinka Has to Shake Things Up
LeBron and vice president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka deserve credit for winning a title together in 2020, but the front office has made countless missteps since then.
From dismantling the jumbo frontcourt that helped win the championship, to trading for Russell Westbrook, to perhaps holding on to Russell for too long to drafting Bronny James, the list of questionable calls from Pelinka and company is long (and growing longer).
And at this point, the only way to really save face is to make a significant trade.
This roster isn't good enough to win four playoff rounds. It might not even be good enough to escape the play-in.
But the Lakers do have plenty of salary-filler with Russell (making $18.6 million this season), Hachimura ($17.0 million) and Vincent ($11.0 million). They have control of their own first-round picks in 2026, 2028, 2029, 2030 and 2031. Between picks and pick swaps, they can offer a lot of draft capital.
And while that package may not be good enough to land the biggest names in this year's trade market, it should be able to get a difference-maker. And that alone could be worth it.
Or, and this may be the dirty little secret of this L.A. season, Pelinka might just know (or at least feel) the window has finally closed on contention with LeBron. If that's true, unloading a bunch of future assets for a player who might move you from ninth or 10th to seventh or eighth isn't worth it.
And instead of blowing up his team's future near the end of LeBron's tenure there (as teams at some of his previous stops have), Pelinka may simply be resigned to riding this crisis out.
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