Sean Manaea clearly values his left arm more than $13.5 million or even $21.05 million.

These are the salaries he could have made in 2025 if he had exercised a player option or accepted a qualifying offer from the New York Mets. He said no to both, choosing instead to venture onto the free-agent market.

It will likely prove to be a wise choice. But how much is the 32-year-old really worth? For that matter, where does he fit best?

Questions like these call for the B/R Landing Spots treatment, so let's get to it by first assessing what kind of deal should be out there for Manaea.

What Is Manaea's Value in Free Agency?

Even before 2024, Manaea was having a low-key remarkable career.

He was a first-round pick in 2013. He had twice been traded with a dude named Aaron, including for Ben Zobrist in 2015. He no-hit the eventual World Series champs in 2018. He had shoulder surgery that same year, and didn't really bounce back until 2021.

That '21 season had been Manaea's best, culminating in a 3.91 ERA over 179.1 innings. This season changed the script, as he outdid himself with a 3.47 ERA over 181.2 innings.

As told by Tim Britton of The Athletic, the turning point of Manaea's '24 season happened on July 25, when he watched eventual NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale at Citi Field. Evidently inspired, he promptly made a sort of mini-Sale of himself.

Manaea shifted his pitch mix to more of a movement-based attack, with more sinkers and fewer four-seamers. He also dramatically altered his throwing motion, dropping his release point and throwing more across his body.

Manaea always figured to ride this high to a lucrative deal in free agency. And thanks to fellow lefty Yusei Kikuchi's three-year, $63 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels, he now has a clear price point to beat.

However, Manaea did attach himself to penalties by rejecting the qualifying offer. Any team that signs him will have to forfeit at least one draft pick. Some also stand to lose as much as $1 million from their international bonus pools for the upcoming signing period.

Even still, at least 10 teams are good fits for Manaea. Let's rank them according to how much sense they make.

Note: All 2025 starting rotation projections are courtesy of RosterResource at FanGraphs.

10-6: Padres, Giants, Nationals, Tigers, Rangers

10. San Diego Padres

2024 Record: 93-69, 2nd in NL West

Projected 2025 Rotation: Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish, Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron

It's the Padres. It feels like they're always in on everyone, and they certainly need a starter with Joe Musgrove slated to miss all of 2025 after having Tommy John surgery in October.

But by all accounts, Roki Sasaki is the guy the Padres really want. Even if they also wanted Manaea, signing him would mean $500,000 less to offer Sasaki when the next international signing period begins on January 15, 2025.

9. San Francisco Giants

2024 Record: 80-82, 4th in NL West

Projected 2025 Rotation: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, Landen Roupp

Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey labeled Blake Snell as a "a priority for us to take a hard look at" when the offseason began. That ship has since sailed, and to the rival Los Angeles Dodgers, no less.

Yet as a luxury tax payor, the Giants would face losing their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft and $1 million in international bonus money if they pivoted to Manaea. Besides, they reportedly want to cut payroll.

8. Washington Nationals

2024 Record: 71-91, 4th in NL East

Projected 2025 Rotation: MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz, Cade Cavalli

The Nationals need to start loading up for contention. And as a revenue-sharing recipient, signing Manaea would only cost them their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft.

But you know what the Nats need more than arms? Bats. Lots of bats. Especially of the power variety, as only the Chicago White Sox produced fewer home runs in 2024.

7. Detroit Tigers

2024 Record: 86-76, T-2nd in AL Central

Projected 2025 Rotation: Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe

The Tigers are another revenue-sharing recipient that should start loading up. And if they were to go after Manaea, the goal would be to further solidify a rotation that already looks good underneath Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner.

Like the Nats, though, this team needs bats first. Despite hitting 27 more homers, Detroit's OPS was exactly .001 points higher than Washington's in 2024.

6. Texas Rangers

2024 Record: 78-84, 3rd in AL West

Projected 2025 Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle, Cody Bradford, Kumar Rocker

As Rangers GM Chris Young said in September, it "always starts with starting pitching." And sans Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney, the team is short in this department.

The Rangers are a luxury tax payor and would reportedly like to avoid being one again. They could sign Manaea and still achieve the latter goal, but it would nonetheless cost them draft picks and international bonus money.

5. New York Yankees

2024 Record: 94-68, 1st in AL East

Projected 2025 Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Marcus Stroman, Luis Gil

There's no need for speculation here. The Yankees are interested in Manaea.

This is according to a November 6 report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post, who also connected the American League champs to Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

The general implication is that the Yankees are willing to go big-game hunting to improve their rotation. Starting pitching was one of their major strengths in 2024, but Cole is 34 years old and Rodón, Stroman and Gil come with varying degrees of volatility.

For his part, Manaea is a relatively safe option. He's had his ups, downs and injuries, but his arm is healthy and his pitching style isn't based on overpowering hitters.

The catch, of course, is that Manaea is not Juan Soto.

Re-signing Soto is the Yankees' top priority, and it figures to cost as much as $40 million per year to do so in a long-term deal. That would send them soaring past the $241 million luxury tax threshold for 2025, which is already less than $3 million above their current projection.

As such, let's hold off on wondering how Manaea would look in pinstripes until Soto makes his decision.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

2024 Record: 74-88, 5th in AL East

Projected 2025 Rotation: Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Bowden Francis, Chris Bassitt, Yariel Rodríguez

The Blue Jays are also interested in signing Soto.

So much so, in fact, that SNY's Andy Martino isn't the only one hearing that Toronto will be the highest bidder for Soto. Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio is pushing that line as well:

Still, the notion of Soto ending up north of the border strains belief. More so than the Yankees, it's easy to imagine the Blue Jays having to pivot to Plan B.

Among the possibilities is Max Fried, who was mentioned in conjunction to Toronto by Heyman. This is strictly speculation, but Manaea would be a sensible fallback if Toronto misses on Fried.

As it would be another case of the team doubling down on run prevention, Blue Jays fans would perhaps be frustrated if the team signed Manaea. Then again, putting him alongside Gausman, Berríos, Francis and Bassitt would give the team an enviable starting five.

The question is whether the Blue Jays will be a luxury tax payor for 2024. They might not be, but they're basically in limbo for now. Should they end up being a payor, signing Manaea would cost precious draft picks and bonus money.

3. Boston Red Sox

2024 Record: 81-81, 3rd in AL East

Projected 2025 Rotation: Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell

The Red Sox are another player in the Soto sweepstakes. But with them, there's a twist!

According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, the Red Sox want to add a frontline starter even if they land Soto first. And it could happen.

Boston is about $60 million in average annual value short of the luxury tax threshold for 2025. That is potentially enough space for Soto and Manaea, and teams can go $20 million above the first threshold before further penalties kick in.

Further, Boston is not a luxury tax payor for 2024.

Therefore, even signing two QO-linked players would only cost the team its second- and third-highest picks in the 2025 draft, plus $500,000 in international bonus money. It's not nothing, but it is lighter than what luxury tax payors must give up for QO-linked free agents.

However, there may be a good reason why Manaea has not been linked to the Red Sox: Their attention seems to be on bigger fish.

They were in on Snell before he signed with the Dodgers. They have otherwise been linked to Burnes and Fried, and are also seen as a contender to trade for Chicago White Sox ace Garrett Crochet.

2. Baltimore Orioles

2024 Record: 91-71, 2nd in AL East

Projected 2025 Rotation: Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez, Trevor Rogers

Elsewhere in the AL East, the Orioles have a Burnes-sized hole in their rotation.

To this end, Heyman reported on November 7 that the Orioles have "been fans" of Manaea. As well they should be, as he suits them from both team-building and payroll perspectives.

Manaea's upside doesn't go as high as Burnes', but the two pitchers' 2024 performances stack up better than you'd think. Notably, Manaea bested the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner with 184 strikeouts and a 24.9 strikeout percentage.

How high the Orioles' payroll will go in 2025 remains a topic of intrigue, but the thinking is that it will indeed go up under new owner David Rubenstein.

"I would be pretty confident that we're going to keep investing in the major league payroll, given what we've got here and the upward slope that we hope to get back on," Orioles GM Mike Elias said in October.

As a revenue-sharing recipient, the Orioles would lose their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft if they signed Manaea. It's the lightest possible penalty, and one they can suffer given how much they're already built on young, homegrown players.

There is one team, though, that could easily outbid the Orioles for Manaea.

1. New York Mets

2024 Record: 89-73, T-2nd in NL East

Projected 2025 Rotation: Kodai Senga, Frankie Montas, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill

The Mets are the boring pick for the No. 1 spot on this list. Yet it was undeniably a good partnership that the two sides had in 2024, and the interest in keeping it going is mutual.

"I love my time here," Manaea said after he and the Mets were eliminated from the National League Championship Series in October. "I love New York. I love the organization. I love all the people here."

For their part, Heyman reported that the Mets were talking with Manaea as of early November.

This was before the Mets signed Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million deal. And like the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox, the Mets also have Soto firmly on their radar.

But with the Mets and various free agents, it's not "either/or" but rather "yes, and."

There is a $157 million gap between what they spent in 2024 and what they project to spend in 2025. After greenlighting back-to-back payrolls of roughly $330 million, there's little reason to think that owner Steve Cohen will leave that gap unfilled.

Besides, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns wants to add multiple starters this winter. There's at least one box still to check even after the Montas deal.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.