The 2024 NFL season is barreling towards a close, and many teams will soon find themselves locked in a tight battle for the handful of playoff spots up for grabs.
With the last set of byes set to occur in Week 14 and the postseason picture starting to materialize, it's a perfect time to take a look at what is likely to be a packed wild-card race.
While only three teams—the New England Patriots, New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders—have been mathematically eliminated from contention, there will be several more early next week with nothing left to look forward to but the upcoming offseason.
Although squads such as the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars are technically still in the hunt, they can't be considered serious contenders and would need a miracle to even sniff the 14-team postseason field.
There are at least seven teams realistically on the wild-card bubble that would be on the outside looking in if the playoffs began today. Each of these still has at least a somewhat realistic shot to reverse its fortunes and punch a postseason ticket this year.
With that in mind, let's overview the bubble squads with work left to do and highlight the biggest concerns that could cause them to miss the playoffs.
Playoff probability percentages courtesy of NFL.com.
Arizona Cardinals: Discipline
Record: 6-6
Playoff Probability: 38 Percent
The Arizona Cardinals have been finding new ways to lose this season.
These issues began to appear immediately when Arizona blew its season opener to the Buffalo Bills. Despite building an 81.3 percent win probability near the end of the second quarter, it collapsed in the second half of an eventual 34-28 defeat.
The Cardinals then had a four-game winning streak snapped by a tepid performance against the Seattle Seahawks two weeks ago, a game in which they scored a meager six points and lost by 10 despite outgaining their rival offensively and committing just one turnover.
Things hit a concerning low on Sunday when they squandered a 92.5 percent win probability with less than five minutes remaining. The Minnesota Vikings showed their resilience in a 23-22 victory that saw them battle back from 13 down in the back half of the contest, a comeback spurred in no small part by a pair of fourth-quarter interceptions from Kyler Murray.
Arizona is still in contention with a .500 record despite making a litany of mistakes that have cost several wins in 2024, but the Cardinals must become more disciplined, avoid beating themselves and finish games they are supposed to win if they are going to be a factor come late-January.
Cincinnati Bengals: Defense
Record: 4-8
Playoff Probability: 4 Percent
Despite boasting a quarterback who leads the league in passing yardage, a receiver who paces the NFL in receiving yardage and a scoring offense that ranks in the top five, the Cincinnati Bengals are sitting at 4-8 and staring down a lost season.
After starting the year with three straight losses, they appeared to be on the cusp of turning things around by winning three of the next four. They were still well in the hunt heading into Week 10 with a 4-5 record, but a three-game tailspin has all but ended their postseason dreams.
Defense has been their Achilles' heel in 2024 and will likely cause Cincinnati to miss the playoffs for the second consecutive year, a disappointing outcome for a group that has so much potential with the explosive battery of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase leading the offense.
The Bengals' defensive efforts have been downright putrid this season, with opponents racking up an average of 369.2 yards and 28.3 points per game. The latter stat is particularly concerning, as it ties Cincinnati for the second-worst scoring defense in football—only the lowly Carolina Panthers concede more per game.
The team has scored a whopping 99 points over the past three games but still lost these contests by a combined 14 points. The defense simply couldn't make key stands late in close games, blowing win probabilities that were as high as 87.6 percent, 71.7 percent and 68.8 percent at various points in those matchups.
A disheartening 44-38 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers—a team that scored its season high in Week 13 and hadn't put up more than 28 points since Week 7—coming out of the bye showed this issue simply isn't fixable during the campaign.
If the Bengals couldn't capitalize on a much-needed rest and chance to tune up for a playoff push, it seems the upcoming offseason will realistically be their next opportunity to get back on track.
Indianapolis Colts: Quarterback
Record: 6-7
Playoff Probability: 30 Percent
Although it seemed Anthony Richardson would be benched for the remainder of the 2024 campaign following his unsightly showing in Week 8—which included a controversial point in which he asked to be subbed out—the Indianapolis Colts are still in the mix with their sophomore signal-caller back under center.
They went 0-2 during backup Joe Flacco's pair of starts and opted to turn back to Richardson with their season effectively on the line against the New York Jets in Week 11.
The young signal-caller looked rejuvenated by the benching and helped guide the team to a much-needed win. While Indy was blown out the following week by the Detroit Lions, it got back on track Sunday and inched closer to .500 with a narrow victory over the New England Patriots.
Despite the slight surge, the Colts cannot feel comfortable with how Richardson has fared in 2024.
While the 22-year-old completed a season-high 66.7 percent of his throws against Gang Green, he has connected on 50 percent or fewer of his passes in the two following starts.
Even in a 25-24 win over the Pats, Richardson's inaccurate arm was effectively a hindrance to Indy's offensive attack. The 2023 No. 4 overall pick completed just 12 passes for 109 yards, and while he did ring up two touchdowns, he also threw two costly interceptions against a defense that had recorded just four picks across 12 prior contests.
Richardson's unique athleticism and rushing abilities—he has 383 yards and four scores on 70 totes this year—has helped the Colts at times, he needs to dial in his accuracy and keep defenses honest if this organization is going to defy the odds and reach the playoffs.
Los Angeles Rams: Running Game
Record: 6-6
Playoff Probability: 19 Percent
The Los Angeles Rams entered the season looking to build on 2023's promising rushing performance, a year in which they averaged a shade over 120 yards per game and scored 18 touchdowns on the ground.
Kyren Williams led the way and earned a Pro Bowl nod even after missing five games with injury, but the team is struggling to find the same success in 2024.
While Williams has been healthy for the first time in his career, his production has noticeably declined. Through 12 games this year—the same amount he played in 2023—the starting running back has 218 fewer rushing yards. His efficiency dropped from 5.0 yards per carry last season to 4.2 yards per carry in 2024. While his scoring marks are still impressive, his 10 touchdowns are a slight dip from 12 last season.
The 24-year-old has also regressed as a pass-catcher. After tallying 32 receptions on 48 targets for 206 yards and three scores last season, he has only been targeted 32 times in 2024 and has converted them into a more pedestrian 145 yards and two touchdowns. The Rams have effectively phased him out of the passing attack in recent weeks, evidenced by the back generating just a single look over the last three games. '
With the Rams now ranking No. 26 in rushing offense—dropping 15 spots from last year's finish—and consistently sputtering out against foes with strong defensive fronts, the team needs to make an adjustment.
It appears only a matter of time before backup Blake Corum, who was drafted in the third round following a stellar run at Michigan, takes on a larger role within the offense. He's coming off his best showing of 2024—an eight-carry, 42-yard performance against the New Orleans Saints—and could provide a spark as early as Week 14 when the Rams clash with a tough Buffalo Bills defense.
If Los Angeles continues to stick with Williams and he continues to falter when the team needs him most, it will likely spell the end of the team's already slim playoff chances.
Miami Dolphins: Cold Weather
Record: 5-7
Playoff Probability: 11 Percent
The Miami Dolphins have been on another roller-coaster ride of a season.
Things began to take a downward turn when Tua Tagovailoa missed four games between Weeks 3 and 7 with a concussion—a stretch in which they went just 1-3—before losing two more in a row upon his Week 8 return.
While Miami started to turn things around with a three-game winning streak against lesser opponents such as the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots, the team failed its first real test since a 30-27 defeat to the Buffalo Bills in Week 9.
With a chance to get back to .500 on the line, the Dolphins couldn't get the job done at a freezing Lambeau Field and suffered a 30-17 defeat to the Green Bay Packers.
As has been the case for many of Miami's late-season losses in recent years, this Thanksgiving Day disappointment coincided with low temperatures on the road.
According to Steve Megargee of the Associated Press, the Dolphins are now 0-12 over their last 12 regular or playoff games with a kickoff time temperature of 40 degrees or lower. They haven't won a cold-weather contest since Christmas Eve 2016.
The dismal showing against the Packers shows Miami hasn't found a way to fix this issue despite it popping up against the Kansas City Chiefs in last year's playoffs. It was blown out by a 26-7 margin in a below-zero temperature battle at Arrowhead Stadium.
While the Dolphins will return to favorable South Beach climates for a meeting with the New York Jets in Week 14, a glance at the schedule ahead reveals a pair of road meetings against the Cleveland Browns and Gang Green to close out the 2024 season.
If the Dolphins can't figure out how to win a cold-weather game against two of the league's worst teams, they'll have almost no chance to reach the playoffs, let alone win a wild-card matchup that could well be contested in chilly conditions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Pass Defense
Record: 6-6
Playoff Probability: 58 Percent
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have battled their way back into contention despite suffering through four straight losses and going without some of their top talents to injury.
With Chris Godwin out for the season, the already short-handed squad struggled to generate offense while fellow star wideout Mike Evans spent three games on the shelf with an injury of his own.
Evans' return has coincided with the team's current two-game winning streak. The running back position looks to be in its best shape of the campaign thanks to the emergence of rookie Bucky Irving, who has joined forces with Rachaad White to form one of the league's best backfield platoons.
Baker Mayfield has been a fantastic fit with the organization and has stabilized the quarterback position following a brief period of uncertainty in wake of Tom Brady's retirement two years ago.
As strong as Tampa's offense has been—it ranks No. 6 in both yardage generated and scoring—there are still defensive concerns that could hamstring this squad's hopes of pushing its playoff streak to a half-decade straight.
The Bucs have given up a concerning 258.3 yards per game through the air, the third-worst mark in the league. Their sieve-like secondary has consistently struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks, an issue that was most apparent during Tampa's four-game losing streak between Weeks 7 and 10. During that span, the team gave up 1,127 passing yards and a concerning 14 passing touchdowns to opposing signal-callers while failing to record even a single interception.
While the Bucs did clamp down against a hapless Tommy DeVito-led New York Giants offense in Week 12, Bryce Young just had the top passing performance of his career (298 yards) while nearly leading the Carolina Panthers to an upset victory on Sunday.
If the Buccaneers can't find a way to stop the quarterbacks they are set to face over the final stretch of 2024—a slate that includes the Las Vegas Raiders, Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints and a rematch with the Panthers in four of the next five weeks—they are bound to drop some of these winnable contests and could miss out on a wild-card slot.
San Francisco 49ers: Health
Record: 5-7
Playoff Probability: 9 Percent
The San Francisco 49ers' aspirations of avenging their overtime loss in last year's Super Bowl are in grave jeopardy.
The team is two games below .500 with five left to play and can hardly afford to lose down the stretch, something far easier said than done for the injury-ravaged squad at this juncture.
The Niners saw their playoff probability slip below 10 percent following their latest defeat, a 35-10 thrashing at the hands of the Buffalo Bills in a snowy Sunday Night Football affair.
While the NFC West is technically still wide open, the result dropped San Francisco two games back behind the Seattle Seahawks—winners of three straight, including a key 20-17 victory over the 49ers in Week 11—and likely means the team needs to win out to even secure a wild-card berth.
As successful as the Niners have been under Kyle Shanahan, the long seasons are now catching up to this unit. Since breaking through and reaching the Super Bowl in 2019—Shanahan's third season at the helm—San Francisco has only missed the postseason once and has reached the NFC Championship in all four of those playoff runs.
A myriad of key contributors have missed time this year. Top wideout Brandon Aiyuk went down for the year in Week 7, and it seems star running back Christian McCaffrey will soon join him on the shelf after suffering a non-contact PCL injury in Week 13.
With other critical pieces such as quarterback Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa and Trent Williams also nursing injuries that have cost them playing time, it's impressive the Niners are still technically even in the hunt.
That will likely change in the near future with tough matchups against the Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals slated to close out the year.
For now, though, San Francisco still has a glimmer of hope to hang on to as the squad licks its wounds and tries to recover in time to clinch an improbable postseason berth.
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