Over the past five seasons of Major League Baseball, 20 different pitchers have received at least one Cy Young vote in multiple years.

Only one of those pitchers received Cy Young votes in all five years, though, and now Corbin Burnes is a free agent for the first time in his career.

His once upper-echelon, closer-like strikeout rate has declined a bit in each of the past four seasons, yet Burnes remains undeniably one of the best in the business, punctuated by an eight-inning, one-run gem in the wild-card round against the Kansas City Royals.

Was it Burnes' final appearance in a Baltimore Orioles uniform?

Or are the O's about to make an uncommonly gigantic splash to bring him back to Camden Yards?

Spotrac puts Burnes' market value at six years, $180.8M. MLB Trade Rumors projected seven years, $200M. Those might be low estimates for the four-time All-Star and 2021 NL Cy Young winner, particularly on the heels of Blake Snell getting 5/$182M from the Dodgers.

But whether it's $180M or more like $280M, Burnes won't come cheap, and the list of realistic suitors is, at most, a dozen teams.

Let's rank all 30 options, though, shall we?

Absolutely, Unequivocally, No Chance (Tier 1 of 2)

30. Milwaukee Brewers

Even if Milwaukee had the money to make it happen, Burnes presumably wouldn't dream of going back to the team that dragged him through the mud in an arbitration battle before trading him away the following year. But Milwaukee doesn't have the money anyway.

29. Tampa Bay Rays

They traded away Tyler Glasnow to save $25M and did basically the same thing with Zach Eflin a few months later. They've never spent more than $40M on a free agent. Just, no. There's a reasonably good chance Burnes stays in the AL East, but not with Tampa Bay.

28. Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland definitely does need a starting pitcher or three. Like Tampa Bay, though, there's just no world in which the Guardians are going to commit more than $200M to a single free agent. They didn't even spend $20M in free agency in six of the past seven winters.

27. Colorado Rockies

At least Colorado theoretically could be willing to spend as much for Burnes as Milwaukee, Tampa Bay and Cleveland combined. But how far above the next-best offer would the Rockies need to go in order to land a top-tier pitcher? If the Mets or Red Sox are willing to go 7/$245M for Burnes, Colorado might need to go 8/$320M to offset the Coors Field tax.

26. Chicago White Sox

It speaks volumes to the chances of the bottom four teams on the list that the White Sox—fresh off setting a modern-day record for losses in a season and after openly saying they won't be 'working heavy' in free agency—aren't dead last. But there's really no difference between Nos. 26 and 30 on this list. Fans of all five of these franchises are already fed up with hearing anything about free agency this winter because it never involves them in any good way.

Absolutely, Unequivocally, No Chance (Tier 2 of 2)

25. Seattle Mariners

The M's might be willing to spend big for one of the top free agents on the market—but it would be for a hitter, not a pitcher, as all six pitchers who made multiple starts for Seattle in 2024 are under team control through at least 2027.

24. Miami Marlins

Miami has occasionally surprised us with a major signing/extension, but trading away their current ace (Sandy Alcantara) is exponentially more likely than signing a new one to a Giancarlo Stanton-like contract.

23. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have said they want to cut costs and build toward the future. While you could argue that a long-term deal with Burnes would technically be building for the future, it would seem to fly in the face of their stated plans.

22. Pittsburgh Pirates

Got to put the Buccos a few notches ahead of the fellow penny-pinching likes of Milwaukee, Tampa Bay and Cleveland, as they've been more willing to spend lately and do presumably feel a need to build a more legitimate winner around Paul Skenes. Even in that context, though, if they have a couple hundred million to spend on a pitcher, they might as well lock up Skenes on darn near a lifetime deal.

21. (Location Redacted) Athletics

USA Today's Bob Nightengale suggested last week that the A's are feeling external pressure from owners and the MLBPA to actually spend for a change and could be looking to increase their payroll almost fourfold to nine figures. And, well, signing Burnes to a $35ish million salary would be a gigantic step toward that goal. We'll believe the A's are spending when we actually see it, though, and Burnes probably isn't eager to enter into a situation where he's the only starting pitcher worth mentioning.

If You Squint Hard Enough, You Might See a Chance (That Isn't Really There)

20. Minnesota Twins

If Burnes is still on the market by the time the Twins get sold to a Steve Cohen-like aggressive owner who wants to make an immediate splash, maybe Minnesota makes the leap to a top candidate to sign the 2021 NL Cy Young winner. However, there has been nothing new on the sale front in the nearly two months since the Pohlad family announced its intent to explore selling the team, so that hardly feels imminent.

19. Kansas City Royals

Similar to Seattle, while Kansas City might mess around and spend big to land a top-10 hitter, it doesn't make much sense for the Royals to go all-in on a pitcher when they've already got Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.

18. Cincinnati Reds

Burnes does have impressive career numbers at Great American Ball Park (1.45 ERA in 31.0 IP), but the Cincinnati tax when trying to sign free-agent pitchers is probably second only to Colorado. Maybe the Reds are willing to pay it, after bringing Terry Francona out of retirement to lead the team. It's likely their tier of realistic targets is a good deal lower than Burnes, though.

17. Houston Astros

Did you know Houston has never signed a free agent for more than $100M? And if that is going to change, wouldn't you expect it to be to re-sign Alex Bregman or maybe land Pete Alonso as opposed to breaking the bank to upgrade a position where they already have a bit of a surplus (once healthy)?

16. Arizona Diamondbacks

If the Diamondbacks manage to trade away Jordan Montgomery and convince someone to take on his entire $22.5M salary for 2025, they would quickly become a more legitimate player in the Burnes sweepstakes. If they're willing to spend big on a starting pitcher, though, got to think they'll instead focus those efforts on getting Zac Gallen on a long-term deal before he hits free agency next winter.

Willing to Spend, But Might Have a Hard Time Justifying $200M+ for Burnes

15. Los Angeles Dodgers

This one goes out to everyone sick of us putting the Dodgers in the top five for just about every free agent over the past few years. Not even top 10! We can't completely rule them out because they're still the Dodgers, but it does seem quite unlikely that they'll be in play for Burnes when they already have an estimated tax payroll well north of $300M after the massive signing of Blake Snell.

14. Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia's payroll isn't nearly as high as the Dodgers' is, but with Zack Wheeler's $42M salary leading an octet of Phillies making at least $18M in 2025, finding room in the budget for Burnes doesn't seem all that plausible. What room they do have for spending will probably go toward upgrading their third-base situation.

13. Atlanta Braves

Cleared some room in the payroll by trading away Jorge Soler and declining a couple of club options, but they're still top five in projected payroll and have never been the "throw heaps of cash at free agents" type, maxing out at a $75.25M signing of B.J. Upton over a decade ago. They'll be active, per usual, but probably not in one fell swoop like this.

12. Los Angeles Angels

The Halos have been surprisingly active this offseason, already committing to more than $80M in free agency, plus another $26M in the Soler trade. With so much money still tied up in Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, though, making another $200M+ acquisition at this point in time is a stretch. Maybe they'll pounce on Tarik Skubal in two years when Rendon's albatross of a contract is no longer on their ledger.

Getting More Realistic, But Arguably Not a Top-5 Candidate

11. New York Yankees

Like the Dodgers, you can't ever rule out the Yankees. But after agreeing to bring back Gerrit Cole for $144M while trying to bring back Juan Soto for 4x or 5x that amount, signing Burnes probably isn't in the cards. Now, that changes in a hurry if they lose the Soto sweepstakes, but would their effort to jump into the bidding war for Burnes be too little, too late at that point?

10. San Diego Padres

After drastically shedding payroll last winter, the Padres might be back to spending big, hoping to make the most of a "World Series contender" window that is already starting to slam shut. And with Joe Musgrove out for the year while both Michael King and Dylan Cease are about to enter their final season before free agency, investing in an ace is certainly the way to go if they are re-opening the checkbook.

9. Toronto Blue Jays

Ah, yes. Top 10 but nowhere near a top-two candidate for one of the top free agents available. Though they've signed four multi-year free agents to salaries in the $20M-$25M range in the past half-decade, this "needs to be mentioned, but isn't expected to win the bidding war" range is where the Blue Jays have taken up seemingly permanent residence for the best players available in recent years. Maybe this is where they make their big move, but re-signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has to be a bigger priority than signing Burnes.

8. Washington Nationals

The wild card in all of this, Washington has plenty of money to spend and would instantly become a more legitimate contender by bringing in one Corbin to replace its previous one (Patrick Corbin). Are they ready to make their move, or will they wait until next offseason? Derek Law is literally the only player on the roster slated for free agency in either 2025 or 2026, so they might not be in any rush to jump into another Stephen Strasburg-sized contract for a pitcher.

7. Texas Rangers

Maybe the toughest team to slot in these rankings, the Rangers lost all of Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Max Scherzer, but still have a top-10 payroll and an impressively long list of candidates for their starting rotation. How much they're willing to offer Burnes hinges largely on how much they believe in Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle and Kumar Rocker to make more than three starts each in 2025.

6. Detroit Tigers

Needs to add at least one starting pitcher this offseason, and undeniably has the room in the budget to make this happen, with just three players presently slated for at least $4M in 2025. But between how poorly the $140M Javier Báez signing has gone and how well their budget approach to last season worked out, the Tigers probably won't be as aggressive in their pursuit of Burnes as others will be.

5. San Francisco Giants

Projected Rotation: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, Hayden Birdsong/Landen Roupp

Current Payroll (including arbitration estimates): $143.4M

Average 2022-24 Opening Day Payroll: $184.5M

After not only losing Blake Snell to free agency but also watching him sign with their loathed rival, do we think the Giants have a heightened desire to go sign an ace like Burnes?

They do have plenty of room in the budget to make it happen. Between Snell and Michael Conforto coming off the books this winter and trading away Jorge Soler's contract over the summer, they've trimmed quite a lot from their 2024 payroll—even with Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, Logan Webb and Jordan Hicks costing them a combined $25M more than last year.

Burnes has always pitched quite well against the Giants, too. We're talking a 2.21 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 11.9 K/9 in 53 career innings pitched, and a 1.61 ERA in 22.1 IP at Oracle Park.

Snell having damn near identical numbers in that pitcher-friendly venue heading into the 2024 campaign (1.59 ERA in 22.2 IP) is a big part of why we kept suggesting he'd be a good fit with the Giants, which he very much was after the initial woes. Maybe they go back to that well and sign a Cy Young winner against whom they've always struggled.

Is this where they decide to go all-in on a pitcher again, though?

The Barry Zito deal from nearly two decades ago infamously aged disastrously. And though the first season of the six-year, $130M contract with Johnny Cueto went quite well, he had a 4.38 ERA during an often-unavailable final half-decade in San Francisco. The five-year deal they signed with Jeff Samardzija that same winter didn't go any better than Cueto's. And since then, San Francisco has become a big fan of the "one year plus a player option" contract route.

That isn't going to cut it for Burnes, who is very likely looking at / destined to receive a few $200M offers. Maybe the Giants go that high here, but color us slightly skeptical.

4. Baltimore Orioles

Projected Rotation: Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Cade Povich, Albert Suárez/Trevor Rogers

Current Payroll (including arbitration estimates): $94.3M

Average 2022-24 Opening Day Payroll: $65.9M

Don't worry too much about that seemingly 'negative budget' gap of nearly $30M between Baltimore's prior spending habits and its current payroll. This is their first offseason fully under their new ownership that is much more willing to spend, and their OD payroll this past season was already $93M.

That isn't to say we expect frivolous spending for the sake of spending. New ownership doesn't change the fact that Baltimore is one of the league's smaller markets, and there are plenty of fantastic "lock them up on a long-term extension while it's still somewhat affordable" candidates on the roster if money is burning a hole in their pockets.

But for the benefit of bringing Burnes back for the foreseeable future, increasing payroll to north of $130M for next season shouldn't be a hindrance in the slightest.

At any rate, Baltimore had an Opening Day payroll of greater than $145M in each year from 2016-18—and that was two stingy owners and a whole lot of inflation ago. That was a top-10 payroll back then, and you'd need hit $200M to be a top 10 spender these days.

Though we do already have evidence that it's a good fit, though Baltimore surely has a desire to bring him back and though the O's are presumably willing to pay quite a bit to make it happen, it's hard to put them at the top of the list for Burnes, if only because they're out of practice at this song and dance.

Aside from trading for Zach Eflin and now owing him $18M for next season, it's been seven years since Baltimore last gave anyone a contract worth more than $16M, and it might take 16 times $16M (AKA $256M) to get this one done.

Unless he feels some sort of loyalty to Baltimore for getting him out of Milwaukee and gives the O's the opportunity to match whatever his best offer ends up being, there's a good chance they'll get outbid here.

3. Chicago Cubs

Projected Rotation: Shōta Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Matt Boyd, Javier Assad

Current Payroll (including arbitration estimates): $184.3M

Average 2022-24 Opening Day Payroll: $180.7M

Let's first note that the Cubs' payroll has been on the rise. The three-year average is barely $180M, but it went from $143.4M in 2021 to $214.4M this past season.

In other words, the gap between their current payroll estimate and what they had on the books at the start of this past season is approximately $30M—enough room to add Burnes, assuming a slight increase is acceptable.

It must also be noted that they might be working on making even more room in the budget, with conflicting reports in the past week on whether or not they're actually shopping Cody Bellinger and his $27.5M salary for next season.

They don't need to move Belly to bring in Burnes, though. Whether that trade happens probably says more about their willingness to invest in Pete Alonso than it does their willingness to spend big on an ace.

How about one more big note? If Detroit is considered one of the top landing spots for Alex Bregman in part because of his previous time with their current manager, don't the Cubs need to be considered a strong contender for Burnes, who spent the first six seasons of his MLB career with their current manager, Craig Counsell?

Most of the guesses at where Burnes will land haven't even mentioned the Cubs among their 7-10 candidates, but it's a great fit, no?

Because of the caliber of the top three pitchers already in their rotation, maybe their level of desperation to sign Burnes won't come anywhere close to matching that of the other teams in our top five. They absolutely could win this bidding war, though.

2. New York Mets

Projected Rotation: Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Frankie Montas, Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn

Current Payroll (including arbitration estimates): $171M

Average 2022-24 Opening Day Payroll: $308M

Unless you have #LGM in a social media bio somewhere, chances are you're sick and tired of seeing the Mets as a top landing spot for just about every top free agent this offseason.

Nevertheless, the Mets are to this offseason what the Dodgers were to last winter: A deep-pocketed team with a lot of room in its budget and a rather dire need for starting pitching.

We know the Mets are very much interested in signing Juan Soto, but there's no good reason to assume this is an 'either Soto or Burnes' situation—just like there was no good reason to think LAD wouldn't sign both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto a year ago.

The total cost to land both could be around $900M, but it would only increase their 2025 payroll from $171M to around $247M.

Incredibly, that means they could sign Soto and Burnes and still sneak in right around the $241M competitive balance tax threshold. [And they've given zero you-know-whats about exceeding that CBT threshold in recent years.]

So, yeah, there's a reason we keep suggesting the Mets are in on just about every free agent worth mentioning.

The big question is whether they would rather have Burnes or Max Fried, the latter of whom has logged more than 100 career innings against the Mets with a 2.48 ERA, including going seven no-hit innings in his only start against them this past season.

Burnes, conversely, has a 4.35 ERA in six games pitched against New York, roughed up for 11 earned runs over his last 10 innings.

Maybe that's enough of a factor to push them in the slightly more budgetary direction of giving Fried around a $30M salary instead of $35M annually on a longer deal with Burnes.

1. Boston Red Sox

Projected Rotation: Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, Cooper Criswell/Richard Fitts

Current Payroll (including arbitration estimates): $131.9M

Average 2022-24 Opening Day Payroll: $186.3M

Unlike the Cubs and the Orioles, Boston's payroll has been on the decline in recent years, ranking 12th in the majors on Opening Day in each of 2023 and 2024 after ranking top six in every single year from 2000-2020.

But even if we assume that for some inexplicable reason they are only willing to go as high as their $171.2M mark from the beginning of this past season, that still leaves them almost $40M to go get an ace like Burnes.

Let's just say they need it.

Since the beginning of 2019, Red Sox starting pitchers have a cumulative ERA of 4.53, logging a combined total of 4,285.2 IP—good for 20th-best and 25th-best in the majors. They've also ranked dead last in the AL East in total runs allowed in each of the past three seasons, unable to cobble together a winning record in spite of a pretty potent offense.

Let's also just say they can afford to go well north of $171.2M.

The Score recently put out a "Scrooge Index," comparing each team's 2023 revenue (per Sportico) to its 2024 payroll (per Spotrac), noting that the Red Sox were the fifth-cheapest team based on the 40 percent ratio between those two figures. One could easily argue they were the 'Scroogiest' of them all, too, with a literal one-third of a billion dollars gap in between what they made in 2023 and what they spent on payroll in 2024.

At least there have been rumblings of that changing in a big way.

Boston is one of the few teams still allegedly in the mix for Juan Soto. And before Blake Snell went off the board to the Dodgers, there was talk of the Red Sox wanting to bring in not just one but two of the big three of Burnes, Snell and Max Fried.

It's unlikely they'll get Soto, but it does feel likely they'll get Burnes or Fried. And if the Mets prioritize Fried—or simply don't bid as much for Burnes as the Red Sox do—he could be relocating to Fenway Park.