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The Perfect Fit for Biggest Names of 2024-25 MLB Free-Agent Class

Tim Kelly

On Nov. 11, we released predictions on where the top 25 free agents would sign and for how much.

Thus far, only one of the top 10 has come off the board, with Blake Snell signing a five-year, $182 million deal with the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. The pact with the two-time Cy Young Award winner includes $65 million in deferrals, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

So, where will the nine remaining free agents from the original top 10 land? Here's a look at the best fit for each of them.

Juan Soto: New York Yankees

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Ultimately, the best fit for Juan Soto is going to be whichever team gives him the largest contract.

The guess here is it will be one of the two New York teams, and it's entirely possible Mets owner Steve Cohen will make a statement and outbid Hal Steinbrenner.

Soto, though, has already proved to be a perfect fit in pinstripes. He finished third in AL MVP voting as a Yankee in 2024, hitting 41 home runs with 109 RBI, 129 walks and a .989 OPS. He hit a home run that sent the team to the World Series.

Yankees fans might be tired of hearing it, but there's some legitimacy to the "George wouldn't have allowed this if he was still here." He particularly wouldn't have allowed Soto to leave for the Mets, who have long been perceived to be the little brothers of the Yankees.

The B/R prediction for Soto was a 14-year, $658 million deal with the chance for him to opt out after the 2030 season.

Almost regardless of the price, it would be unthinkable for the Yankees—the team most associated with money in North American sports—to allow a 26-year-old future Hall of Famer to depart in free agency.

Corbin Burnes: New York Mets

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Corbin Burnes isn't striking out batters at the clip he once did—he posted an 8.4 SO/9 in 2024, as opposed to 12.6 in 2021—but he's remained one of the better starting pitchers in baseball.

If going 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA over 194.1 innings pitched and finishing fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting is the baseline, that speaks pretty well to how the 30-year-old will age.

Burnes doesn't need to be among the league leaders in strikeouts to be an effective arm. And who knows, it's possible he'll see an uptick in strikeouts in 2025 in the short term.

Even if the Baltimore Orioles are willing to spend more money under new owner David Rubenstein, we're a little skeptical they will be willing to meet the seven-year, $224 million price we projected for the four-time All-Star.

However, there are no questions about the Mets' willingness to spend. If they get Soto, perhaps they won't also be in on Burnes. But both Sean Manaea and Luis Severino are free agents, and president of baseball operations David Stearns was with Burnes in Milwaukee. He would look good anchoring the rotation for the Mets for the better part of the next decade.

Max Fried: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles might not ultimately spend quite enough to retain Burnes, but they still need a top-of-the-rotation arm as they try to win a World Series during the Gunnar Henderson-Adley Rutschman Era.

Max Fried would give the Baltimore Orioles an ace, adding to a rotation that includes Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin.

He did have Tommy John surgery as a prospect in 2014, but he has avoided any major injuries since then. And over the last five seasons, he's won three Gold Gloves, made two All-Star Game appearances and posted two top-five finishes in NL Cy Young Award voting as a member of the Braves.

The six-year, $168 million deal we've projected would be less than what it will take to sign Burnes, but it's still a major commitment the O's can spin as a sign they've moved beyond the frugalness of the Angelos Era.

Pete Alonso: New York Mets

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There may be a hesitancy from teams to commit to power-hitting first basemen into their 30s, but because of that, you're no longer seeing the contractual lengths players such as Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Adrián González once got at the position.

It's kind of like the running back debate in the NFL. Do they age well? Not typically. But the market has swung so far in the other direction that players such as Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry became bargains.

Pete Alonso has hit 40-plus home runs on three occasions. Last season was seen as a down year, and he still hit 34 home runs with 88 RBI and a .788 OPS. He's entering his age-30 season, and we've projected a five-year, $135 million deal. Is that really that much of a risk for one of the elite power hitters in the sport?

The four-time All-Star returning to the Mets might be depedent upon whether they sign Soto. But if he signs elsewhere, Alonso would be one hell of a fallback option.

Willy Adames: San Francisco Giants

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Coming off of a season in which he hit 32 home runs and drove in 112 runs, Willy Adames is likely to price his way out of a range where the Milwaukee Brewers are willing to spend to keep him.

The B/R projection for the 29-year-old is seven years and $180 million.

No problem, the San Francisco Giants would be a good fit for everyone involved. New president of baseball operations Buster Posey has said he wants to figure out the shortstop position, and they have been in need of more thump since Barry Bonds departed after the 2007 season.

Adames had minus-16 defensive runs saved and zero outs above average at shortstop this past year, a surprising decline. Between 2022 and 2023, he had 17 defensive runs saved and 26 outs above average, making him one of the best defenders at shortstop.

So, while he's apparently signaled a willingness to move off of shortstop in the right situation, he may well be able to bounce back defensively and continue playing his natural position for at least a few more years.

The Giants might be willing to pay a bit of a premium—both in terms of dollars and allowing Adames to stay at shortstop—to land him.

Alex Bregman: Houston Astros

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Alex Bregman could make sense for a variety of teams, including the Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers and Yankees.

None, though, are a better fit than the Houston Astros, where the 30-year-old has spent the first nine years of his career. He just added his first Gold Glove to a resume that already included a pair of All-Star Game nods, a Silver Slugger and two World Series titles.

Bregman is a franchise icon, and Houston general manager Dana Brown sounded optimistic late in the season on the team's chances of retaining him.

"I think it'll work out," Brown told Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. "When you get down to it, I think he wants to stay here. I think we want him to stay here. And it's just a matter of coming up with some type of an agreement."

Anthony Santander: Detroit Tigers

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For as fun as the Detroit Tigers' run to the postseason and beyond the Astros was to watch, Riley Greene was the only player on their roster to hit more than 20 home runs a year ago.

Granted, that's partly because Kerry Carpenter was limited to 87 games. Nonetheless, Detroit needs to add more thump this offseason.

Anthony Santander clubbed 44 home runs and drove in 102 runs this past season for the Orioles, and he would be a great solution in right field for manager A.J. Hinch's squad. Not only would he improve them in right field, but he would also allow super-utility man Matt Vierling to be the primary third baseman.

Santander, 30, is projected to get a five-year, $101 million deal in free agency. Signing him would not only improve their lineup, but it would also indicate the Tigers are committed to returning to contention on a consistent basis.

Teoscar Hernández: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Teoscar Hernández signed a one-year pillow contract with the Dodgers last offseason and found the perfect landing spot.

The 32-year-old homered 33 times, drove in 99 runs and posted an .840 OPS en route to making an All-Star Game appearance and winning a Silver Slugger.

Of course, Hernández also drove in 12 runs during a postseason run that culminated in the Dodgers winning a World Series. If he is one-and-done in Los Angeles, it was a magical year.

With that said, the Dodgers extended a qualifying offer to Hernández, which he declined. That means any team other than L.A. that signs him will have to surrender draft pick compensation.

For as loaded as the Dodgers are, they still have question marks in the outfield, particularly if Mookie Betts is moving back to the infield. A return to the Dodgers on a three-year deal would make the most sense for everyone.

Jack Flaherty: Atlanta Braves

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Jack Flaherty is one of the more interesting free agents this offseason.

He revitalized his career in 2024, posting a 3.17 ERA across 162 innings pitched. He's still only 29 years old, and because he was traded from the Tigers to the Dodgers midseason, he wasn't eligible to receive a qualifying offer this offseason.

There's definitely injury risk with Flaherty, who pitched a total of 299 innings between 2020 and 2023 after a breakout 2019 season. That's why our projection for him is a three-year, $60 million deal. Any longer than that would be too much of a gamble with his health history.

However, the deal gives him the chance to opt out after 2026 and return to free agency if he chooses. And whatever team signs him could extend the qualifying offer to him if he does opt out.

As far as where Flaherty could land, the Braves—who could lose Fried and Charlie Morton in free agency and aren't sure when Spencer Strider will be ready to return to the mound—make sense as they try to keep pace with the Phillies and Mets in a crowded NL East.

If everyone is healthy, a rotation with Flaherty, Strider, Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach could be pretty special.

   

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