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5 Early Predictions for 2024-25 NBA Trade Season

Grant Hughes

There's already been plenty of trade chatter surrounding Brandon Ingram, Zach LaVine and various Brooklyn Nets, but the approach of Dec. 15 will add a whole slew of new names to the market. That's the date when players who signed deals over the offseason are eligible to be moved, and it usually marks an uptick in rumors and actual trade discussions.

We still have several months until the actual deadline, when most of the serious action happens. But this is still a good time to survey the NBA landscape and make some predictions about the potential transactions ahead.

It'll Be Quiet

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The New York Knicks' blockbuster moves at the end of the offseason—trading a half-decade's worth of first rounders for Mikal Bridges and swapping Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle for Karl-Anthony Towns—were not proof that massive deals would still be commonplace in the new collective bargaining agreement.

They were more like a last gasp.

Plenty of win-now teams need to make moves, but almost all of them are hamstrung by the various caps and restrictions of the new CBA. ESPN's Brian Windhorst offered an illustration of the constraints, citing an executive who said: "We were looking at a trade concept the other day and there were three reasons the other team wouldn't be allowed to do it—one of the rules I didn't even know about."

As it stands now, the Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, LA Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards are all hard-capped at the $178 million first apron. The Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns are even more limited by second-apron restrictions that prevent them from aggregating salaries in trades or taking back more money than they send out.

That amounts to nearly two-thirds of the league trying to transact with (at least) one hand tied behind its back. Even if most or all of those clubs want to swing meaningful deals, it's going to be very difficult for them to find a way.

Portland Will Trade at Least One Center

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The Portland Trail Blazers needed to alleviate the logjam at center before the season started. But rookie big man Donovan Clingan's increasingly frequent flashes of defensive dominance (before he went down with an MCL sprain) should intensify the urgency to deal Robert Williams III and/or Deandre Ayton.

Per Marc Stein, Portland would prefer to move Ayton over RWIII, which...of course it would. The former No. 1 overall pick makes nearly three times as much as Williams this year and has another $35.6 million coming to him in 2025-26. Of the two, Williams is the vastly superior defensive player whose overall statistical production exceeds Ayton's, particularly if you view them on a per-minute basis.

Williams, currently out with a concussion, comes with more injury risk but is averaging 18.4 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.6 blocks per 36 minutes while shooting 71.1 percent from the field. Ayton is at 17.3 points, 12.1 rebounds and just 0.8 blocks(!) per-36 on 55.0 percent shooting.

Clingan has blocked a shot in every game this season, swatted a career-high eight on Nov. 13 and hoarded 19 boards in only 26 minutes when the Blazers beat the Rockets on Nov. 23. Once healthy, he needs to play, and the Blazers will clear the runway for him by offloading at least one of their veteran bigs in a trade.

The Bulls Will Try (Unsuccessfully) to Trade Patrick Williams

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There's no point in the Chicago Bulls throwing good money after bad, which is why they'll try hard to move off of Patrick Williams' recently inked $90 million deal.

On a B/R livestream, NBA insider Jake Fischer noted the Bulls were "more willing than ever to discuss [Williams] in a trade", which makes sense given Williams' stagnant development and continued injury issues. He's dealing with a foot injury now and has played fewer than 50 games in two of the last three seasons.

It might seem safer to predict the Chicago Bulls will trade one or both of Zach LaVine or Nikola Vučević, but their history of holding onto vets too long and then getting little in return for them (DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso, et al.) makes that riskier than you might think.

Chicago should be looking to clear playing time for rookie Matas Buzelis while also cleaning up its books. Williams could appeal to teams who believe they can coax real growth out of the No. 4 pick in the 2020 draft, but his contract will ultimately make a deal highly unlikely.

The Wolves Will Aggressively Shop Julius Randle

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Anthony Edwards didn't name names, but as Phil Ervin of The Associated Press reported, "he could be seen communicating demonstratively in the huddle with Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert and others" during the loss to the Sacramento Kings that preceded Ant's screed against his "soft", agenda-driven team.

Everyone on Minnesota's roster is culpable for the team's disappointing start, but Randle's difficulty fitting into his new role and inexcusably poor defense make him an obvious trade candidate. If you also believe the Wolves simply wanted the financial flexibility his contract provides (Randle can become a free agent via player option this summer), his dispensability is even clearer.

The Wolves' defensive decline has been a focal point this season, but their work on that end is just fine as long as Randle is off the floor. They allow 115.7 points per 100 possessions with him in the game and 104.2 when he's on the bench.

His ball-dominant game and struggle to contribute in ways beyond scoring make him a tricky fit everywhere, but the Wolves will try to find a taker when the trade market heats up.

The Lakers Will Trade D'Angelo Russell to the Nets

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How's that for a specific prediction?

We won't go so far as to say which of the Brooklyn Nets' many available vets will come back to the Los Angeles Lakers, but there are plenty of intriguing options between Dorian Finney-Smith, Cam Johnson, Nic Claxton* and even old friend Dennis Schroder.

Johnson would add intriguing stretch from the forward spot, while Claxton, likely the costliest add of the bunch, would give the Lakers the defense-first big man they always seem to be seeking as a complement to Anthony Davis.

Los Angeles' defense has been wildly underwhelming, even with AD still reputed as one of the league's most impactful players on that end of the floor. Claxton's athleticism and switchability could add new dimensions to a defense that clearly needs a boost, and his mobility might even help the Lakers ditch their status as perennial laggards in transition D.

Russell has already lost his starting job and has an expiring $19 million salary that makes him an ideal trade chip.

*Can't be dealt until Dec. 15.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Dec. 1. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.

   

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