The first few weeks of Major League Baseball's offseason are always pretty uneventful, mostly dedicated to the proverbial crossing of t's and dotting of i's.

There are usually a few surprising decisions in terms of options, qualifying offers and non-tenders, but nothing too massive as far as trades and free agents are concerned. And save for the Los Angeles Angels pouncing on a few veterans, that was no different for this year's Halloween-Thanksgiving window on the calendar.

However, Blake Snell signing with the Dodgers out of seemingly nowhere on Tuesday night was the ceremonially lighting of the hot stove.

Maybe the rest of the big dominoes won't start falling until the winter meetings (Dec. 8-12), but option/QO/non-tender season has come and gone, leaving us with a new, more official baseline of who needs what this offseason.

And the swirling of rumors is already intensifying.

What's for real, though, and what's a heaping pile of malarkey?

For each of the recent rumors listed within, we'll assign a BS Meter grade on a scale from 1-100, in which the higher the score, the more it smells like a bunch of manure that won't come true.

Winter Meetings Will Actually Be Productive This Year

The Rumor (per USA Today's Bob Nightengale on Monday): "'It's not going to be like a year ago when the winter meetings were an embarrassment,' one prominent agent said. 'Nothing happened... This year is different. Everyone is much more aggressive, or at least they're acting like it.'"

Juan Soto getting traded from the Padres to the Yankees was one heck of a huge development during last year's winter meetings.

However, aside from that swap and Eduardo Rodriguez signing his four-year deal with the Diamondbacks, it was a whole lot of sitting around and waiting for anything interesting to happen—an ominous precursor to the "Boras Four" not signing their disappointing short-term contracts with player options until months later.

The expectation for this year, though, is that the wheeling and dealing will be much more feverish at the winter meetings—if not during the less than two weeks remaining before they begin.

Whether that rings true, though, depends almost entirely upon Soto's timeline, doesn't it?

Similar to Shohei Ohtani last offseason and Aaron Judge the year before, Soto's impending contract is the one that figures to break the dam, as the teams optimistic about signing the superstar outfielder presumably won't be extending actual offers to the players on their "Plan B" list until they know for certain Plan B is necessary.

So, if Soto doesn't sign until Dec. 13 or later, there could be a lot of big-name free agents still on the board after the winter meetings.

The good news on the "potential for spending" front is that there has at least been some resolution on the Regional Sports Networks fiasco in recent weeks, with Diamond Sports Group emerging from bankruptcy and making new/revised deals with the Angels, Braves, Cardinals, Marlins, Rays and Tigers.

That uncertainty was a major problem for nearly half of the league last offseason, but it shouldn't be a problem—or at least as big of a problem—this winter.

BS Meter: 12 out of 100. Feeling reasonably confident that the winter meetings will, in fact, have a fair amount of fireworks.

New York Mets Seen as Favorite in Juan Soto Sweepstakes

The Rumor (per USA Today's Bob Nightengale on Monday): The four teams "seriously in play for" Juan Soto are Toronto, Boston and the two New York teams, with some executives saying the Mets are the "clear-cut favorite."

If it's solely a question of which owner is willing to spend the most money to acquire Juan Soto, then yes, the New York Mets should be viewed as the prohibitive favorite.

Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay said last week he "heard from somebody in baseball" that Mets owner Steve Cohen is willing to go $50 million above whatever the next-best offer is for the 26-year-old.

That came out right around the same time as the unsubstantiated rumors that the Mets had already extended Soto a 15-year, $660 million contract. (It was later reported that no offers had yet officially been made to the player by any team.)

Do we seriously now believe he's leaving the Yankees, though?

That the second-most valuable sports franchise in the United States (behind only the Dallas Cowboys) is going to just sit back and let its little brother from across town pry away one half of what was one of the greatest single-season dynamic duos of all time?

Over a measly $50 million over the course of a possible 15-year deal?

BS Meter: 84 out of 100. For months, the Yankees were the clear favorite to re-sign Soto, even opening the offseason as the betting favorite on DraftKings, listed at -225 to the Mets' +380. And it feels like the MLB machine has speculated itself into a frenzy here, on par with when the Blue Jays suddenly emerged as a favorite to sign Shohei Ohtani because of a plane he was never on.

Until we get actual evidence that the Yankees aren't the favorite—beyond the long-existing knowledge Cohen isn't afraid to spend money—they remain the favorite.

Nolan Arenado on the Move (x2?)

The Rumor (per The Athletic's Katie Woo on Tuesday): Nolan Arenado might be leaving both St. Louis and the hot corner, open to a position change and being dangled by the Cardinals in trade talks.

Let's apply the meter to all four parts of this one.

1. St. Louis is willing to trade Arenado.

BS Meter: None detected. The Cardinals have outright stated they are trying to shed payroll and focus on the future, and getting rid of a veteran player who is still owed $52 million over the next three seasons—not to mention $44 million in deferred money to be paid out through 2041, which they're pretty well stuck with even if they manage to trade him—makes a lot of sense. (Wouldn't be surprising if they trade Sonny Gray, too, though that seems less likely.)

2. Arenado is willing to leave St. Louis.

BS Meter: Again, none detected. Arenado has a full no-trade clause, but surely he would love to play out the remainder of his contract with a team that is trying to win now as opposed to trying to build for the long haul. He has experienced one postseason victory in his entire career—which is at least one more than Mike Trout—and he'd presumably love to partake in an actual October run for once.

3. Arenado will be with a new team in 2025.

BS Meter: 35 out of 100. While it's a contract St. Louis would rather not be paying, a $17.3 million AAV for three years of Arenado is solid value. He hasn't been as good over the past two seasons as he was from 2015-22, but he certainly isn't "washed up." He'll turn 34 in April and should be of use to a contender through 2027. We'll see if they can work out the specifics to get a deal done, but it feels more likely than not.

4. Arenado will shift to first base.

BS Meter: 99 out of 100. Maybe he'll occasionally make an appearance at first base after playing all 14,000-plus innings of his career at third base, but there's just no way he'll predominantly move across the diamond, right? The man has 10 Gold Gloves and six Platinum Gloves, with a lot of his career value added coming on defense. Trading for his bat in its current state and just throwing away his glove would be ridiculous.

White Sox Have High Asking Price for Luis Robert Jr.

The Rumor (per USA Today's Bob Nightengale on Monday): "'[Luis Robert Jr.] is certainly intriguing,' one GM said, 'but they've got a really high price tag on him. You've got to hope he finally stays healthy and can be the player everyone envisioned all along. But the White Sox are acting like he's some big star center fielder and are asking for your top prospects.'"

At this early point in the offseason, it makes sense that the White Sox are requesting a possible king's ransom in exchange for Luis Robert Jr.

He was an All-Star, a Silver Slugger and a 12th-place finisher in the AL MVP vote just one year ago, and they are well within their rights to expect prospective trade partners to view him thusly.

Good luck with that, though, considering Robert slugged .297 with no home runs over his final 34 games last season and hit three home runs over the final 61 games played.

That isn't to say nobody wants him. This year's crop of center fielders available in free agency is painfully bleak, and Robert's contract ($15 million in 2025, $20 million club options for each of 2026 and 2027) is the furthest thing from a deal-breaker.

It does mean, however, that most teams view him as a buy-low candidate, while the White Sox have no interest in selling low.

They might eventually get to that point, because it makes virtually no sense for them to have him on the roster once the season begins. Aside from trading away Robert and Garrett Crochet, though, they don't have much else to worry about this offseason.

Might as well drag it out and hope someone eventually puts together a nice platter of prospects.

BS Meter: 5 out of 100. While it is likely Robert gets traded before Opening Day, there's no reason to assume it's imminent. Chicago might want the world for him today, but it figures to gradually lower its asking price until it finds a willing buyer.

Brewers Keeping Devin Williams

The Rumor (per USA Today's Bob Nightengale on Monday): "The Milwaukee Brewers plan to hang onto closer Devin Williams until at least the All-Star break and will re-evaluate whether to keep him or trade him."

The Milwaukee Brewers declined their $10.5 million club option for Devin Williams, choosing instead to pay the $250,000 buyout and (if they hang onto him) an estimated arbitration salary of $8.4 million. If that's what his salary ends up being, they will have saved themselves $1.85 million.

And while most teams would steer clear of that type of shrewd maneuver for fear of offending a great player one year before he hits free agency, the small-market Brewers were never going to be able to re-sign Williams anyway—and they went to arbitration war with Corbin Burnes over a $740,000 difference just two years ago, so they probably had no qualms whatsoever about saving even more money here.

Many viewed the declined option as yet another sign the Brewers were done with Williams, which they still might be. But it was probably just a necessity type of move for a team that barely has a $100 million budget for Opening Day payroll.

BS Meter: 13 out of 100. Williams may well want out of Milwaukee, and the Brewers might not trust him to take the mound in October. (Surely, the fans have lost hope in him after the latest collapse.) But keeping the status quo with one more season of one of the best closers in baseball makes sense. At any rate, if they were going to trade him, it probably would have happened already.

Four Teams in the Running for Garrett Crochet

The Rumor (per The New York Post's Jon Heyman last Thursday): "White Sox star starting pitcher Garrett Crochet is drawing big interest from the Orioles, Red Sox, Dodgers and Phillies, among others."

The "among others" could be doing some secretive heavy lifting there, but in singling out Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia and the reigning champions, Heyman unofficially crowned them as the co-betting favorites to trade for Garrett Crochet this winter. [This was before the Dodgers signed Snell to a massive contract on Tuesday, but they might still swing big to get Crochet.]

First of all, no need to do a BS Meter on the likelihood of Crochet being traded. You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who doesn't think Chicago's 2024 ace will get dealt at some point in the next four months.

It's mostly a question of when, where and how much?

To that end, these four teams do make a lot of sense. They each have multiple highly touted hitting prospects they could offer the White Sox, they're in a "win now" mode and they're looking to add a star pitcher.

What might feel like BS, though, is the lack of Cleveland, Detroit and the Chicago Cubs on the list of candidates, as they each check all three of those boxes, too.

The fact that the White Sox don't want to help improve any of those three teams shouldn't matter here. There's no realistic chance they'll be competitive again before Crochet exhausts his final two years of arbitration eligibility and reaches free agency, so they shouldn't be ignoring potentially juicy offers from rivals.

San Diego also figures to be in the mix for Crochet in its quest to replace the injured Joe Musgrove, but it would need to really deplete its farm to go back to where it got Dylan Cease and add another ace-caliber arm.

BS Meter: 4 out of 100. BAL, BOS, LAD and PHI do feel like the four teams most motivated to acquire Crochet, arguably with the Red Sox at the top of that heap with the most premier prospects to offer. We'll throw it a few BS points, though, because it's definitely an "among others" situation. More than half of the league may make a serious offer for Crochet this winter.

Alex Bregman Wants $200M; Phillies Want Alex Bregman

The Rumor (per USA Today's Bob Nightengale on Monday): "The Houston Astros would love to have Alex Bregman back on a six-year deal worth about $156 million, but Bregman is seeking a deal worth at least $200 million."

Elsewhere in the same article: "If the Phillies trade [Alec] Bohm, they are expected to make a strong play for Alex Bregman, whose talent and personality would fit in perfectly with the team, or perhaps sign Willy Adames and move him over to third base."

If Alex Bregman thinks he should get $200 million in free agency, it's hard to blame him.

There are five third basemen on deals worth at least $212 million, two of them on deals north of $310 million, and Bregman has been more valuable than any of them over the past eight years. (José Ramírez has been the most valuable third baseman of all during those eight years, but he's only on a $141 million contract with Cleveland.)

Even though he'll turn 31 shortly after the 2025 season begins, wanting a seven-year, $200 million deal isn't greedy.

It's not even market value for an elite third baseman, who keep getting salaries greater than $31 million.

But will that offer really come from the Philadelphia Phillies?

There has been a lot of talk about an Alec Bohm trade to make room for an upgrade at third base, but the Phillies are already looking at a payroll greater than $260 million. Pushing that to the brink of $300 million without even addressing the losses of Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez would certainly be a decision.

If they do it, they might also need to trade away Nick Castellanos' $20 million salary to justify the move. But is Bregman plus TBD budget RF even an upgrade over Bohm and Castellanos?

BS Meter: 3 out of 100 on Bregman expecting $200 million; 79 out of 100 on that deal coming from the Phillies. If he's getting that big of a contract, it's probably coming with either Houston or Detroit. But it's possible the Phillies will really go all-in on what looks like it will be the final year at the peak of their championship window.

A's Will Spend Money Like Never Before

The Rumor (per USA Today's Bob Nightengale on Monday): "The Athletics plan to spend money, increasing their payroll to about $100 million, keeping owners and the players association off their back with the revenue sharing money they receive."

We've referenced Nightengale's column quite a few times here in what has otherwise been a light five-day stretch on the rumors front. And in that entire article, this little nugget about the A's stood out as the biggest eyebrow-raiser.

The artists formerly housed in Oakland ranked dead-last in the majors in spending in each of the past three years, with an average Opening Day payroll of $55.3 million. That Opening Day payroll hasn't ranked higher than 23rd in the majors since 2007, and it has only once crept above $87 million—starting out the 2019 campaign at $92.2 million.

But they're going to finally put together a nine-figure payroll in Sacramento?

Because they're worried in year No. 3 of their tank/rebuild about upsetting the other owners or the MLBPA?

Even if that were true, do you realize how much they would need to spend this winter to sniff a $100 million payroll?

The A's only have four players on their roster who aren't "pre-arbitration," and none of those are expected to get more than $3.5 million in arbitration. If they added nothing and gave everyone other than Brent Rooker, Miguel Andujar, Seth Brown and T.J. McFarland the league minimum of $800,000, their 26-man payroll would be a little north of $28 million.

So, we're supposed to believe they're going to nearly quadruple their payroll just to silence criticisms about their long-established spending patterns?

By the way, the A's have never signed a free agent to a salary north of $11 million, so unless that changes, it would take at least half-a-dozen acquisitions to get the payroll anywhere close to $100 million.

BS Meter: 101 out of 100. The A's might make a few noteworthy offers before pointing to those semi-legitimate efforts and saying they tried to spend money but no one wanted to go there. But actually landing anything other than the types of late-career reclamation projects they've signed in recent years—let alone a bunch of them—is hard to believe. If they even get their payroll above $60 million, it would be a surprise.