Somehow, almost one-quarter of the 2024-25 NBA regular season is complete.

Time sure flies when you're watching hoops—and, unfortunately, keeping track of CVS-receipt-length injury reports.

As we embrace the quarter-pole, it's only right that we revisit some win-loss predictions.

Everything under the sun will be factored into these forecasts: Remaining strengths of schedules, injury outlooks, the potential for trades and fire sales, prospective tanking ambitions and the mysterious shutdowns they can bring and, of course, everything we have observed so far.

Current win-loss paces will be mentioned in passing, for posterity, but they are not be-alls. Better health moving forward for a few squads, in particular, stands to upend the present-day standings. (Yes, we are looking at you, New Orleans and Philadelphia.)

Don't worry about us doling out too many wins or losses. A full season's schedule ends with 1,230 of each. (The final rounds of the play-in tournament do not count.) These final record projections ensure the #mathchecksout.

Atlanta Hawks (34-48)

Is there another roster in the NBA that screams "34 wins, baby!" louder than that of these Atlanta Hawks?

There will be ways to improve upon this fate. Trae Young should get healthier and swish more of his threes. Bogdan Bogdanović is available again. Atlanta could make a move for another playmaker or another wing or look to consolidate its (solid) big-man rotation into a singular upgrade. It has the incentive to pursue wins, after all, with this year's pick headed to San Antonio.

Yet, while outbound draft obligations likely ensure the Hawks won't go the teardown route, they aren't nearly good enough to meaningfully buy. Their offense has underachieved even relative to imperfect personnel, and they have zero business coughing up anymore draft equity or acquiring players who eat into the court time of Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher.

Atlanta is destined to continue existing inside the in-between: That gray area in which it'll punch a play-in ticket but remain well outside the meat and potatoes of the actual postseason picture.

Boston Celtics (64-18)

About the Boston Celtics falling off from last year's 64-win outpouring of dominance in service of preserving themselves for a repeat-title push: LOL.

Clumsiness across the Eastern Conference stands to buoy the champs' record. Feign concern about defensive ebbs and flows if you must. Boston ranks in the top 10 of points allowed per possession anyway. And, oh, Kristaps Porziņģis is already back—much earlier than anyone expected.

Maybe the Celtics take their foot off the throttle at some point. But unless that decline is the result of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White all being abducted by aliens and Boston getting relocated to the Western Conference, any reasonable outcome likely features this group flirting with, if not matching or outstripping, last year's win total.

Brooklyn Nets (25-57)

Somebody in Brooklyn must be stopped.

Whether it's head coach Jordi Fernandez, career-year Dennis Schröder, contract-year Cam Thomas, human fireball Cam Johnson or Dorian "Really Picked This Year To Go Wild From Deep" Finney-Smith, the Brooklyn Nets offense is too damn competent. This team apparently has the personnel to both rain threes and break down set defenses. Who knew?

A win over the Golden State Warriors on Nov. 25 puts the Nets on track to win more than 35 games. That will not stand. General manager Sean Marks won't let it. He did not reacquire control of Brooklyn's next two first-rounders just so he could try mining a cornerstone out of the No. 12 pick.

Trades are coming. Plural. You also better believe the Nets will reach a point in the season at which they'll sign dudes off the street and close games with them over better options, citing the importance of development rather than a much-too-rosy crunch-time record.

Hell, Brooklyn might even feel like 25 wins is one or 17 too many. But it needn't worry. In our world, this is (not-)good enough to bag top-four lottery odds.

Charlotte Hornets (31-51)

Visions of the Charlotte Hornets dramatically exceeding expectations and contending for more than back-end play-in candidacy are quickly disappearing.

Pretty much every frontcourt player on the roster is injured. Grant Williams, one of Charlotte's more important spacers and defenders, is the latest to go down. And he's out for the rest of the season after suffering "tears to the ACL, meniscus and associated ligaments in his right knee."

Meanwhile, Mark Williams (foot) has not played since December 2023. Both Nick Richards (ribs) and Miles Bridges (knee) remain on the shelf. Even reserve guard Tre Mann has missed multiple games with a back issue.

Charlotte is, to some degree, already being thrust further into developmental mode. Moussa Diabaté and rookie Tidjane Salaun are more integral to the pre-February rotation than anyone could have imagined.

This outlook isn't dreary enough to predict the Hornets become fire-sale formalities. Floating around 30 wins keeps you in the East's play-in discussion. But the status quo is unformed (and unhealthy) enough to disincentivize Charlotte from seeking out the material upgrades it'll take to do more than win one-third or so of its overall games.

Chicago Bulls (29-53)

Another, more forward-thinking organization in the Chicago Bulls' situation would be more proactive about avoiding 30ish-win purgatory.

Everyone from Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević to Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu would be aggressively shopped. Lonzo Ball's expiring contract would be viewed as a vehicle through which the team could take on longer-term money in exchange for draft or prospect equity. Josh Giddey would be playing 40 minutes per game. Mata Buzelis would have cleared 25 minutes in a single game before late November.

The list goes on and on.

But these are still the Bulls. They can't even be as bad as everyone expected properly. They might end up jettisoning a couple of the most talked-about trade candidates.

Because they are the Bulls, though, we know they will do so nearly early enough or in enough volume to jeopardize their shot at almost-but-not-quite making the play-in.

Cleveland Cavaliers (65-17)

Remember when the discussion entering this season focused on whether the Cleveland Cavaliers could get back up above 50 victories?

Good times.

Cleveland will (presumably) cool off at some point. It has a pristine crunch-time record, would currently own the third-most efficient season from beyond the arc in NBA history, has yet to lose at home and has not dealt with as many critical injuries as many of its contemporaries.

That is different from saying the Cavs are a mirage. They are not. They have the third best net rating in the league when adjusting for strength of schedule, according to Dunks & Threes. And while they aren't being gutted by injuries, their rotation has navigated various absences, including a season-long one (so far) from Max Strus, who was widely considered to be their fifth-most important player entering this year.

Very little about this Cleveland squad implies it's playing beyond its limits. Perhaps Ty Jerome and Caris LeVert regress. But the performances the Cavs are getting from Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen—both when they're together and staggered—are well within the boundaries of their own sustainability.

Relative to the state of the East at large, it would almost be a surprise if Boston and Cleveland don't clear 60 victories apiece.

Dallas Mavericks (50-32)

Barely hovering above .500 almost 20 games into the season could be cause for the Dallas Mavericks to undergo internal recalibration.

Emphasis on could.

Dallas' start is not ideal. That's also part of the point. The Mavs have a bottom-five record in crunch time. Luka Dončić is injured and hasn't looked right or played well in the clutch himself. The Mavs, as a team, are shooting a preposterously low clip on wide-open threes. Head coach Jason Kidd is still (kind of) figuring out the right secondary rotation.

In actuality, this situation could be much worse. Instead, Dallas owns a top-10 offense and defense, putting it in the company of Boston, Cleveland, Memphis and Oklahoma City, giving it the profile of a title contender.

Save any and all (long-term) concern for teams that actually need it.

Denver Nuggets (50-32)

Slotting the Denver Nuggets into the 50-win club is a nod to many factors. More than anything, it's a hat-tip to the brilliance and genius of the one-man-system-unto-himself that is Nikola Jokić.

Few players are equipped to ferry a supporting cast featuring zero co-stars and instead a cabal of youth and wild cards to title contention. Jokić has the inside track on winning his fourth MVP award because he ranks among the only exceptions.

Denver's current record has them tumbling a few wins south of 50. That cakes in three missed games from Jokić and the ongoing absence of Aaron Gordon. It also incorporates less-ideal versions of Michael Porter Jr. and Peyton Watson. Both look much better in recent weeks to go along with a Most Improved Player push from Christian Braun.

Choppiness remains part and parcel of the larger Nuggets package. One game, they will make the Los Angeles Lakers look like a Division III team constructed almost entirely around walk-ons; the next game, they will come out with Wendesday-before-Thanksgiving-energy-even-though-it's-Monday against the New York Knicks.

Stark duality is unbecoming of a title hopeful. Denver, in so many ways, is the aggregate embodiment of Jamal Murray: Far more unpredictable night-to-night than it should be.

However, core lineups continue to get the job done. More specifically, Jokić-led lineups get the job done, outscoring opponents by more than 13 points per 100 possessions.

Detroit Pistons (33-49)

When doing these exercises, the Detroit Pistons are usually the team from which you liberally pull victories.

Not anymore.

Yours truly struggled this time around not to push the Pistons' win total higher. They have plenty of indicators that intimate a loftier ceiling.

Detroit's defense remains above league average. A healthy Cade Cunningham looks like an All-Star. Offseason additions are (largely) having their intended impact on the floor balance. Jaden Ivey is more plug-and-play than ever.

Head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has added more coherence. The Pistons are 13th in points scored per possession out of a timeout, with the league's fourth-highest effective field-goal percentage, per PBP Stats. Last year, they ranked 22nd and 20th, respectively, in those categories.

Earmarking Detroit for under 35 wins, again, is a hedge against variance. The front office could trade guys making an impact. And only the Sacramento Kings have logged more clutch minutes—something that speaks to an increase in overall play quality but also illustrates the thin margins on which the Pistons are working.

Golden State Warriors (50-32)

The Golden State Warriors are currently closer to a 60-win pace than a 50-win trajectory. Rolling with 50 wins on the button for them can be considered patented party-pooping.

It's really just an attempt to be reasonable.

Golden State has done a bang-up job surrounding Stephen Curry and Draymond Green with a high-IQ supporting cast heavy on spacing optionality and frantic defensive motors. And Andrew Wiggins is again doing that thing where he makes you believe. But the offense has proved vulnerable amid the absence of a concrete No. 2 option.

Minutes without Curry see the team's offensive rating plunge into the 10th percentile. Golden State has also slipped to 20th overall in points scored per possession over its past 10 games.

None of this is meant to entirely dismiss the Warriors. They are clearly friskier, deeper and just generally more capable than last season. But their offensive fragility is food for thought when cobbling together a Western Conference hierarchy—and when considering what, if anything, they should do at the trade deadline.

Houston Rockets (49-33)

Hellacious stopping power is fueling the Houston Rockets' ascent up the NBA pecking order. Only the Oklahoma City Thunder allow fewer points per possession—and no defense fares better versus top-10 offenses.

Attempts to peddle this as untenable fall flat when considering the personnel, including head coach Ime Udoka.

Dillon Brooks, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson are endless, relentless wells of versatility and ferocity. Alperen Şengün is doing his best Robert Williams III-circa-Boston impression. Fred VanVleet remains scrappy.

This is all to say: The Rockets are for real.

Falling off their currently torrid pace invariably comes back to the offense. Houston continues to drift around the top 10 of points scored per possession, but its structure is uncomfortably fluid and light on spacing. The team ranks in the bottom five of both three-point-attempt rate and accuracy.

Though the Rockets have the assets to balance out the offense if they please, they retain an obligation to the bigger picture. This is not a squad itching to consolidate youngsters into a marquee name. They seem more inclined to stay the present course and reorient over the offseason—if necessary.

Indiana Pacers (38-44)

Keeping the Indiana Pacers below .500 may sit on the more pessimistic end of the spectrum even though they're on pace for fewer than 38 wins.

Glimmers of hope can be found in the play of Pascal Siakam and Bennedict Mathurin, the volume and efficiency from Myles Turner on threes, a top-four half-court offense and a dead-even record versus opponents .500 or better.

To what extent this matters if Tyrese Haliburton does not resume playing like a superstar is debatable. Defenses have traveled great lengths to disarm and disrupt him, but he is unsettlingly unsteady even relative to those efforts.

Attention gravitates toward Haliburton's sub-33-percent clip from deep. And yeah, that's not great. His underlying passivity may be worse. Almost 44 percent of his drives last year ended in a shot attempt or foul. That number has dipped to 36.4 percent this season.

Bake in persisting defensive concerns and the likelihood Indiana will aggressively target upgrades while billowing in the win-loss wind, and the road back to .500 is obstructed by more than just early-schedule noise.

Los Angeles Clippers (45-37)

Who needs Kawhi Leonard when you're on track for 45-plus wins without him?

Well, the Los Angeles Clippers do. Or rather, they need the idea of Kawhi: another primary offensive option to open up space and shots for everyone else while lightening James Harden's workload in the half-court.

In the meantime, annihilatory defense coupled with enviable lineup versatility is a recipe for regular-season Ws. And worry as you might about Norman Powell, Derrick Jones Jr. or someone else cooling off, just know that Harden himself has room to make more shots.

Remember, too, that Los Angeles has zero incentive to do anything other than play its butt off all season. Control of its 2025 first-round pick belongs to Oklahoma City (swap rights).

The real question is whether the Clippers are willing to prowl the trade market for offensive infusions who might cost future draft equity—regardless of when (or if) Kawhi returns. Because if they do, this might be a 50-win candidate hiding in plain sight.

Los Angeles Lakers (46-36)

Buying into the Los Angeles Lakers as a viable Western Conference threat requires accepting that Anthony Davis will remain an MVP candidate; LeBron James' offense will never age; Dalton Knecht is a Rookie of the Year contender; Austin Reaves' three-point volume will hold; D'Angelo Russell can be trusted to perform at a high level off the bench all season; a lack of depth won't come back to bite them; the defense is better than it has shown, particularly in transition; LeBron and AD remain near-perfectly healthy; and general manager Rob Pelinka will make any sort of midseason upgrades.

Varying degrees of confidence can be applied to this laundry list of factors. And to be honest, the Lakers' outlook comes across as glowing right up until you enter the DLo, depth, defense and midseason transactions of it all.

There is an inherent fragility to this group. And it's not the kind that can be offset from within. At minimum, it feels like the Lakers need an actual two-way wing and another big for their quarter-ish season start to translate into 50-win eligibility.

Memphis Grizzlies (51-31)

Just one team this season currently ranks inside the top five of both points allowed and points scored per possession. Given the breadth of injuries the Memphis Grizzlies have incurred and continue to navigate, it definitely shouldn't be them.

Except, it is them.

Little about this team makes sense. Its offense wants for spacing in the half-court. Its rotation features more wild cards than established quantities—and multiple rookies. Nobody is averaging even 29 minutes per game. Head coach Taylor Jenkins often stretches his rotation 89 players deep. (Don't bother double-checking; this is totally accurate.)

There will be questions about how the Grizzlies' murderous regular-season model holds up in the playoffs. And they could be due some regression when looking at their record against winning teams.

But, uh, they could also get healthier. And therefore deeper. That's enough to get them back up over the 50-win plateau.

Miami Heat (38-44)

This flies in the face of everything we know about the Miami Heat: They have just enough to figure out how to win enough to finish a handful of games over .500 and defend their title as the "Team Nobody Wants to Face in the Playoffs."

It also flies in the face of a defense that has clawed its way back to the top 10 of points allowed per possession. And it definitely flies in the face of what Jimmy Butler has done since returning from a right ankle injury: chew up and spit out the shorthanded Dallas Mavericks and Philadelphia 76ers.

Something about this team just doesn't seem right. Is it the dearth of an identity? It's tough to say. Especially when the defense is climbing. Ditto for Bam Adebayo's individual offense. Terry Rozier's performance is alarming. It can also be (somewhat) written off when Tyler Herro continues to ball.

More than anything, Miami comes off as a team in need of at least one major piece it does not have the assets to acquire. This interpretation of its roster changes if Butler's switch stays flipped. But tethering your relevance to a 35-year-old who always seems banged up and committed (necessarily) to selective detonations is a slippery slope down which to travel.

Milwaukee Bucks (45-37)

Hope is starting to spread within the Deer District.

Since moving Gary Trent Jr. out of the starting lineup and increasing the roles for Andre Jackson Jr. and AJ Green, the Milwaukee Bucks have won 70 percent of their games while placing inside the top 10 of points allowed per possession. Many of their transition warts remain, but the ball containment and pressure in the half-court is noticeably better.

This is a huge development for Milwaukee if the defensive returns are closer to normal than not. The offense still has some cracks, but many of them should be remedied when Khris Middleton makes his season debut and Damian Lillard starts hitting shots again.

It would not be shocking if the Bucks end up scraping past the 45-win touchstone. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains dominant across multiple solar systems, and the East is the East is the East.

The margin for error (and setbacks) is nevertheless slim. Milwaukee needs to win almost 60 percent of its remaining games just to hit that mark—doable, but far from a guarantee.

Minnesota Timberwolves (44-38)

Giving the Minnesota Timberwolves 44 wins would have been an insult a little over one month ago. It may not be a tad ambitious. ESPN's Basketball Power Index has them landing between 41 and 42 victories.

That jibes with what we're seeing right now. Their on-court product is an acid trip. So many of their biggest flaws vary from night to night, and the overarching result is a team that's not really elite at anything.

Minnesota's defense can seem hopeless on any given possession, but its offense is likely the bigger question mark. Surrendering Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo only to commit more turnovers than last year and still rank outside the top 10 in points scored per possession is an issue.

For the most part, I default towards the Timberwolves having the personnel in-house to figure it out. DiVincenzo shouldn't shoot so poorly forever, and while needing Anthony Edwards to live by the three at the expense of rim attempts and trips to the free-throw line isn't ideal, it's the lone option when defenses remain inclined to disregard Jaden McDaniels.

Reconciling the playmaker ranks is tougher. Mike Conley is injured and could be on the decline. DiVincenzo and Randle look overtaxed going downhill, and the team's general chemistry is just off.

Is more of Rob Dillingham the answer? Sunday's near-comeback in Boston suggests it might be. But turning to a rookie to polish off a supposed contender is risky business. The top-end talent here remains enough to float belief. For how much longer this stays true is debatable.

New Orleans Pelicans (29-53)

Landing in sub-30-win territory but well north of 20 victories suggests the New Orleans Pelicans will steer into the skid prompted by injuries after failing to try salvaging what's left of their season.

And...this feels about right.

Talent abounds up and down the roster. More of it will be available in the coming weeks. But Zion Williamson is not expected to be among the imminent returns, and the Pelicans don't have enough top-end or inherently complementary talent to jockey for position without Peak Zanos in a Western Conference that has exactly one team currently uninterested in winning basketball games.

Take more of an optimist's stance if you are so inclined. But there are only so many rose-tinted views you can provide for a Pelicans squad that's relying on Elfrid Payton, and that counts Brandon Boston Jr., Javonte Green, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Yves "Might Make An All-Rookie Team" Missi among four of its five most-used players nearly one-quarter of the way into the season.

New York Knicks (49-33)

Ridiculous offensive returns may be enough to grant the New York Knicks entry into the 50-win club. They now lead the league in points scored per possession and rank sixth in net rating. Dismantling the Denver Nuggets on Nov. 25 inflates both marks, but that bump is counteracted by the opening-night meltdown against the Boston Celtics.

Hashing out the ceiling for these Knicks is headache-inducing. Their offense is already good enough to outstrip shaky defense—and that's without Mikal Bridges consistently living up to expectations.

We can't just ignore the other end, though, where Bridges is also not as advertised (but he's getting better), and where New York ranks 29th in half-court efficiency.

Counting on improvement from within gets dicey. Precious Achiuwa and Mitchell Robinson will presumably be available at some point, but deploying them will come at the cost of the spacing that's currently enabling brain-bending contributions from Towns and OG Anunoby. New York is not out of trade chips to play, but how much can any acquisition matter when they won't crack the core lineup?

Adding any depth at all, internally or otherwise, is likely worth whatever offensive concessions it may entail. Some think harping on head coach Tom Thibodeau's minutes distribution is lazy, but the Knicks ran out of healthy bodies last year.

Expanding the rotation to lighten the starting five's workload—Anunoby, Bridges and Hart all average over 36 minutes per game—would go a long way. Whether New York has (or will get) the personnel to do so is a different story. For now, this team profiles as near-elite.

Oklahoma City Thunder (63-19)

Losing Chet Holmgren for an extended period of time with a right hip injury could torpedo the Oklahoma City Thunder's shot at eclipsing 60 victories.

Or not.

Spending big-time money on Isaiah Hartenstein now looks like a stroke of genius. Just a couple of games into his tenure, which was delayed by a fractured left hand, he's already making his impact felt, particularly as a screener.

Lengthier samples without Holmgren could undermine Oklahoma City's best-in-the-West stock. But it's sporting a plus-10.9 net rating, with a still-elite defense, during his time off the floor. And, you know, this isn't forever. He's supposed to return at some point.

Concern is fairer game if his absence leaks into the playoffs. The regular season? That's a borderline non-issue.

Without Holmgren, the Thunder still have an MVP candidate (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), a potential first-time All-Star (Jalen Williams) and an obscene amount of depth that, at worst, will terrorize opposing offenses until the end of time.

Orlando Magic (49-33)

Kudos to the Orlando Magic for remaining on a 50-win trajectory despite losing Paolo Banchero to an oblique injury on Oct. 30.

Initially, it appeared as if the offense would implode in his absence. And, well, it has not been pretty. Orlando is 25th in points scored per possession since he went down. But the Magic are scoring closer to league average during Franz Wagner's solo time. And the defense has not skipped a beat.

Perfection at home is serving them well—and won't last forever. The schedule also hasn't been daunting. At the same time, who cares? Orlando is down its offensive engine as well as Wendell Carter Jr., and Jalen Suggs is now dealing with a hamstring injury. Oh, and virtually none of the non-stars are holding up their end of the bargain from downtown.

Plus, while the Magic's schedule has skewed cupcake, it's not projected to get harder. They have the easiest remaining slate the rest of the way, according to Tankathon.

Unless you think Banchero's inevitable return will somehow disrupt things, 49 wins may undershoot this squad's ceiling. If you can guarantee they'll acquire another initiator by the trade deadline, I can be swayed to go higher. Much higher.

Philadelphia 76ers (41-41)

Anything at or above .500 will look ambitious for what would be a league-worst Philadelphia 76ers squad if the Washington Wizards didn't exist. ESPN's Basketball Power Index has them nabbing somewhere between 36 and 37 wins.

Doomsday scenarios are absolutely in play. But the Sixers have the luxury of playing in the Eastern Conference. Hovering 10 games below .500 just means you are four losses out of sixth place.

Sure, Philadelphia must be healthy enough to win some actual games. That is not a guarantee. Paul George's multiple left knee hyperextensions are nothing if not ominous, and Joel Embiid has not exactly set the world on fire.

Paint me semi-transparent shades of unconcerned. George always misses time but usually manages to play enough to make an impact. And everyone likes to act as if the sky is falling whenever Embiid returns from an extended absence, as if he doesn't have a well-established track record of needing numerous games to ramp up.

Let's also not pretend like president of basketball operations Daryl Morey isn't about to swing trades. He has four movable first-round picks and an incredibly urgent timeline on which to work.

The Sixers are going to make upgrades, and in conjunction with getting at least slightly healthier, they'll figure out a way to win more than 19 percent of the time.

Phoenix Suns (48-34)

You can make the case that the Phoenix Suns deserve a 50-win nod.

Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant have both missed time. Devin Booker and Grayson Allen aren't yet the best version of themselves. And you just know the center rotation won't remain so tightly tethered to the whims of Jusuf Nurkić and Mason Plumlee.

Conversely, you can also argue that the Suns will finish lower on the win-loss ladder. Seven of their first nine wins have required crunch time. The Booker-and-Beal minutes without Durant have been disastrous so far. And they rank outside the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Banking on midseason upgrades is also a rickety proposition regardless of how much team governor Mat Ishbia is willing to spend or give up. Offering a 2031 first-rounder is attractive, but the Suns can neither aggregate salaries nor take back more money than they send out.

Phoenix's best salary-matchers, meanwhile, are Allen and Nurkić. Neither has a ton of standalone value right now. Sponging up the balance of their contracts will be factored into the opportunity cost on the other side of any deals. The Suns can use Josh Okogie's made-for-trade contract for less fuss, but his $8.3 million salary isn't conducive to closing-lineup acquisitions.

To be certain, the Suns aren't wandering through the wilderness. Their ceiling remains exceptionally high. But the lack of certainty outside their top players—and a heavy dependence on age-35 Durant—should prove somewhat limiting.

Portland Trail Blazers (27-55)

Sustaining a league-average or better defense can keep the Portland Trail Blazers on the path to a mid-30s wins total.

So, general manager Joe Cronin better act accordingly.

Portland has no business winning enough to get, like, the ninth overall pick. Sure, it has plenty of dudes. But it does not, beyond a shadow of a doubt, have the #TheDude—the player around whom the franchise can map out its entire future.

Draft positioning must be the priority until the Blazers have that guy. Fortunately for them, the offense is bad enough that they might descend further down the win-loss ladder and keep pace with the East's surfeit of doldrums-dwellers. But Portland may need an extra, contrived nudge.

Shipping out multiple players who don't factor into the bigger picture feels inevitable. And if that's not enough, Portland will likely start finding creative ways later on to get rest for Shaedon Sharpe, Donovan Clingan and Toumani Camara—the youngsters who, when left to their own developmental devices, are most likely to drive (too much) winning.

Sacramento Kings (42-40)

This is the spot in which we must politely note the Sacramento Kings are below .500 despite playing one of the five easiest schedules, according to Dunks & Threes. It is also the spot in which we have to acknowledge they have the hardest remaining slate, per Tankathon.

Expressing concern, at this stage, is perfectly reasonable. But as The Kings Herald's Greg Wissinger noted, strength-of-schedule rankings aren't everything this time of year:

"The median win percentage in the NBA right now is Minnesota and Miami, both at .500. The Spurs are just above, at .529, and the Bucks are next below at .471. So the win percentages of the four teams smack dab in the middle of the league represent the full variability of the current SOS rankings. We're talking about a difference of 5.3 percent between the hardest and the easiest remaining schedule in the league. The difference between the Spurs and Bucks is 5.8 percent. A 5 percent difference over the course of the season works out to four games. Right now [it] is a difference of one game."

Injuries factor into Sacramento's lackluster start as well. DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk have each missed multiple games. The Kings have also racked up more clutch minutes than anyone—and are 4-7 in those instances despite housing, ahem, Kings of Crunch Time in DeRozan and De'Aaron Fox.

All of these caveats are in many ways good, especially when Sacramento has crushed opponents with DeRozan, Fox and Domantas Sabonis playing together. But the well-actually of it all doesn't entirely negate concern.

The Kings' shot profile could come back to bite them if Keegan Murray and Kevin Huerter don't start drilling threes, and the defense has failed to hold up versus top-10 offenses in ways that, believe it or not, signing Jae Crowder won't fix.

San Antonio Spurs (42-40)

Plenty of people will struggle to see the San Antonio Spurs remaining above .500 by season's end. That's fair. And it would be the correct stance if all we had to rest on were our "all things are possible through Victor Wembanyama" laurels.

San Antonio is more than that. Its most-used lineup is trucking opponents by nearly 30 points per 100 possessions, and combinations featuring the trio of Wemby, Stephon Castle and Chris Paul rank in the 88th percentile or better on both offensive or defensive efficiency.

The Spurs may only get better from here now Devin Vassell is back in the fold. They might also have to ask some tough questions about where Jeremy Sochan fits once he returns from left thumb surgery.

Regression could come in the form of a deliberate pull-back. San Antonio has made it clear the bigger picture takes priority, but you don't sign a 39-year-old CP3 if you're thinking about punting on an entire half or so of the schedule.

On the contrary, the Spurs seem more likely to prowl the market for modest-not-blockbuster floor-spacing upgrades that, when paired with their defense, insert them into discussions this 42-win projection doesn't reflect.

Toronto Raptors (24-58)

"Oh, this feels much too low," I say to myself, for the 28th time of this exercise.

The Toronto Raptors have the talent to pile up north of 25 wins. (Damning with faint praise, much?) They are getting a handful of individual leaps, their offense has shown flashes of dynamism, and there will be real depth to the rotation if everyone's ever healthy at once.

Most notably: Bruce Brown Jr. and Kelly Olynyk haven't played a single game while Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick and Jakob Poeltl have yet to be available for the same game.

Still, this defense has virtually no path to league-average competence over an extended stretch—not even with Davion Mitchell and Jamal Shead wearing opponents for a second skin.

More to the point, Raptors president Masai Ujiri has not constructed this team in the image of now. Toronto is frisky, but the bigger picture is its endgame.

And with only two, maaaybe three, total teams in the Eastern Conference sharing that view pre-trade deadline, the Raptors seem fated to comfortably miss the 30-win threshold.

Utah Jazz (15-67)

Ticketing a team coached by Will Hardy so far below the 20-win benchmark feels a little silly. The Utah Jazz are forever a threat to rip off victories they have no business collecting.

Then again, team CEO Danny Ainge and general manager Justin Zanik have clearly done their homework. Not even Hardy can coax too many wins out of a roster basically completely bereft of wings and floor generals.

Even if he can, we have seen Utah pull the midseason ripcord during each of the past two years. It probably doesn't need to do so again, but if the front office is truly worried about a late-season pick-me-up, it should be able to easily reroute Collin Sexton by the trade deadline and accidentally leave Lauri Markkanen at home for a couple of road trips.

Failing that, if the Jazz's veterans are helping too much, expect to see injuries to made-up body parts dominate their pregame reports.

Washington Wizards (14-68)

Penciling in the Washington Wizards for this "many" wins would give them the worst record in the league.

It also might be ambitious.

Washington for the most part is doing its best wins-are-lame impression, its recent attempt to showcase a healthy Malcolm Brogdon notwithstanding. Trades are inevitable. Granted, this could make the Wizards better. Some of their brightest spots remain the kids—Bilal Coulibaly, Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George, specifically.

Really, though, it doesn't matter.

The Wizards are built to lose en masse as currently constructed. And they do not look prepared to disappoint. They have the league's worst defense by over a mile, and they've got a real shot to Charlotte Bobcat (i.e. finish 30th in points per possession at both ends of the floor) if the Portland Trail Blazers start making any shots whatsoever.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.

Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass.