It all comes down to this.

That, of course, is defining "it" as conference races and "all" by which programs will play in league championship games. So, relative to the College Football Playoff, it only partially comes down to Week 14.

You get the point, though. For teams like Miami and Texas A&M, their postseason dreams are at stake. If either one loses, say goodbye to a potential conference title as well as probably (Miami) or definitely (Texas A&M) to the CFP. The stakes are absolutely massive.

Thanksgiving week is loaded with other storylines, too.

More than a dozen programs are on the brink of bowl eligibility, and two matchups feature a pair of 5-6 teams. Plus, there are bragging rights on the line in a bunch of rivalry games.

The stacked slate demands a preview of each Top 25 matchup—based on the latest AP poll, not the CFP selection committee's rankings—with a prediction for every game involving an FBS team.

AP Nos. 25-21

UTSA (6-5) at No. 25 Army (9-1), Noon ET

The showcase game against Notre Dame didn't go well for Army. Unfortunate! Still, the Black Knights have otherwise been a terrific team defensively with a reliable rushing attack. UTSA's offense has excelled in recent weeks, but Army should be able to control the pace at home.

Prediction: Army 28, UTSA 23

Arkansas (6-5) at No. 24 Missouri (8-3), 3:30 p.m. ET

Feels like an ugly matchup, in a good way. Missouri is unbeaten in Columbia, yet Arkansas' defense is ordinarily stingy. As we've seen through a barrage of upsets in recent weeks, home-field advantage tends to matter a lot. Give me the Zou.

Prediction: Missouri 27, Arkansas 24

Oklahoma State (3-8) at No. 23 Colorado (8-3), Friday, Noon ET

Go figure, the moment I finally hop aboard the Colorado bandwagon is right before a loss. My bad, Buffs. The offense stumbled, obviously, in the setback at Kansas, but the greater issue is the defense literally had zero stops. While I don't anticipate an upset because Oklahoma State has yielded 38-plus points in seven straight games, the offense has flashed enough danger that it could be interesting.

Prediction: Colorado 43, Oklahoma State 28

No. 22 Illinois (8-3) at Northwestern (4-7), Noon ET

Northwestern, on the other hand, is averaging 16.9 points this season. It'll probably be a low-scoring affair that leans toward Illinois, which can secure its first nine-win campaign since the memorable 2007 team.

Prediction: Illinois 24, Northwestern 16

Nevada (3-9) at No. 21 UNLV (9-2), 8 p.m. ET

Three weeks ago, Nevada put a scare into Boise State on the road. However, the Wolf Pack haven't put up more than 21 points in five straight games. UNLV hasn't been below that number all season.

Prediction: UNLV 34, Nevada 20

AP Nos. 20-16

No. 20 Texas A&M (8-3) at No. 3 Texas (10-1), 7:30 p.m. ET

For prediction, see No. 3 Texas.

Houston (4-7) at No. 19 BYU (9-2), 10:15 p.m. ET

"Delightfully nonsensical" is a short way to describe Houston, which opened November with a huge upset of Kansas State and proceeded to lose at Arizona and home to Baylor. Do you know what to expect? Let's find out together! BYU needs a win to stick in the Big 12 championship race, so there will be plenty of motivation for the hosts.

Prediction: BYU 27, Houston 19

Memphis (9-2) at No. 18 Tulane (9-2), Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET

During the preseason, this seemed like a pivotal AAC game—and maybe a precursor to a rematch in the league championship. Instead, it's mostly a chance for Tulane to bolster its resume in hopes of catching either the Big 12 or Mountain West champion in the CFP rankings. Memphis is a strong team, but Tulane's defense has been suffocating with 12.3 points allowed per game in conference.

Prediction: Tulane 34, Memphis 20

Kansas State (8-3) at No. 17 Iowa State (9-2), 7:30 p.m. ET

For good reason, I am heavy on home-field advantage. Look at where the upsets have happened lately. I'm fighting the current on this one, however, since Iowa State's efficiency has noticeably dropped in November. Besides, the visitor has three straight wins in Farmageddon; make it four.

Prediction: Kansas State 30, Iowa State 24

No. 16 South Carolina (8-3) at No. 12 Clemson (9-2), Noon ET

For prediction, see No. 12 Clemson.

AP Nos. 15-11

Mississippi State (2-9) at No. 15 Ole Miss (8-3), Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET

This rivalry is a test of Ole Miss' mental space. Short of another chaos-filled weekend, losing to Florida ended the Rebels' hopes of making the College Football Playoff. Can they bounce back quickly to prioritize the Egg Bowl? It should be a blowout.

Prediction: Ole Miss 41, Mississippi State 24

No. 14 Arizona State (9-2) at Arizona (4-7), 3:30 p.m. ET

All year, subpar defense has plagued Arizona. The unit has surrendered 30.2 points per game, the Big 12's third-worst mark. Rivalries can get weird, but ASU is clearly the better team.

Prediction: Arizona State 34, Arizona 23

Auburn (5-6) at No. 13 Alabama (8-3), 3:30 p.m. ET

Thanks for making me look smart last week, Auburn. Conversely, what was that, Alabama? Two weeks removed from obliterating LSU, the Crimson Tide couldn't do anything at Oklahoma. Which version of Bama shows up? I imagine the good one at home, but yikes.

Prediction: Alabama 26, Auburn 21

No. 16 South Carolina (8-3) at No. 12 Clemson (9-2), Noon ET

Flip the location, and I'm taking South Carolina in a heartbeat. Shane Beamer's team is riding a scorching hot streak into the Palmetto Bowl. I think South Carolina's defense wins the day, especially given the inconsistency of Clemson's passing game against good competition.

Prediction: South Carolina 27, Clemson 23

Oregon State (5-6) at No. 11 Boise State (10-1), Friday, Noon ET

Oregon State unexpectedly snapped a five-game slide to upset Washington State and earn the Pac-2 title last weekend. The biggest test arrives this Friday, when the Beavers head to Boise State. Will the nation's 123rd-ranked run defense slow Ashton Jeanty? I'll vote no.

Prediction: Boise State 34, Oregon State 20

AP Nos. 10-6

Purdue (1-10) at No. 10 Indiana (10-1), 7 p.m. ET

If the Hoosiers win, they should be headed to the College Football Playoff. In a season full of three-loss programs, there's no legitimate reason to exclude an 11-1 power-conference team. That's the long setup to a short prediction. You see those records, right? Indiana wins.

Prediction: Indiana 38, Purdue 14

Cal (6-5) at No. 9 SMU (10-1), 3:30 p.m. ET

Same story, Part 2. Already locked into the ACC Championship Game, SMU should be safely in the CFP field with a victory over Cal. While it's a bit much to suggest SMU has a turnover problem, the Mustangs have lost the margin in three of their last five games. Cal, meanwhile, is eighth nationally with 22 takeaways. Even if unlikely, the simplest path to a nerve-wracking finish is a distinct possibility here.

Prediction: SMU 37, Cal 27

No. 8 Miami (10-1) at Syracuse (8-3), 3:30 p.m. ET

And same story, Part 3. Miami again played with fire in a closer-than-the-score-indicated win over Wake Forest, but—really for the first time—its defense made the biggest impact. That's an encouraging sign before the 'Canes face a very productive Syracuse offense. Although the upset alarm is blaring in my head, I'll unconfidently take Miami on the road because its defense showed a little life and Syracuse's run defense is very vulnerable.

Prediction: Miami 41, Syracuse 34

No. 7 Tennessee (9-2) at Vanderbilt (6-5), Noon ET

Do the 'Dores have one more scare in store? They've upset Alabama and taken Texas to the wire. The main concern is Vandy's offense has mostly lost the explosiveness it showed in October. Without that, it's hard to envision Vanderbilt being able to sustain a handful of scoring drives against a stout UT defense.

Prediction: Tennessee 28, Vanderbilt 17

Georgia Tech (7-4) at No. 6 Georgia (9-2), Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET

The blueprint for an upset is similar to what Georgia Tech did against Miami: Run the ball, convert third downs and limit possessions. If the Jackets do that successfully, they have a chance. Otherwise, the Georgia offense—flawed as it can be—will be the difference.

Prediction: Georgia 35, Georgia Tech 20

AP Nos. 5-1

No. 5 Notre Dame (10-1) at USC (6-5), 3:30 p.m. ET

Over the last two weeks, USC defeated Nebraska and UCLA to secure bowl eligibility. That's a sigh of relief for the Trojans, who otherwise would have needed to upset Notre Dame for a sixth win. Considering how well ND's defense has played recently—six straight games with no more than 14 points allowed—that would've been a risky proposition.

Prediction: Notre Dame 35, USC 21

Maryland (4-7) at No. 4 Penn State (10-1), 3:30 p.m. ET

Perhaps lost in the mayhem of several SEC upsets is that Penn State clipped Minnesota by a point. Because of that victory, though, the Nittany Lions are basically locked into the CFP picture, too. There won't be any doubt if Penn State topples a reeling Maryland team.

Prediction: Penn State 36, Maryland 17

No. 3 Texas (10-1) at No. 20 Texas A&M (8-3), 7:30 p.m. ET

The trends are screaming for an upset pick, and Texas A&M's defense will probably frustrate the Longhorns throughout the game. But I just cannot bring myself to trust A&M's offense in a matchup with the nation's leader in yards allowed per play.

Prediction: Texas 20, Texas A&M 16

Michigan (6-5) at No. 2 Ohio State (10-1), Noon ET

This should be a lopsided result. Michigan popped off a 50-point game against Northwestern last weekend but hasn't cracked 17 points either on the road or against a ranked opponent. On the other side, Ohio State's defense is among—if not the—best in the country.

Prediction: Ohio State 34, Michigan 14

Washington (6-5) at No. 1 Oregon (11-0), 7:30 p.m. ET

Similarly, the on-paper outlook bends toward a blowout. Washington is winless on the road, and Oregon has limited five straight opponents to 301 yards or less. Should be simple, right? Famous last words.

Prediction: Oregon 38, Washington 17

Friday's Games

Minnesota (6-5) at Wisconsin (5-6), Noon ET
Prediction: Wisconsin 20, Minnesota 17

Navy (7-3) at East Carolina (7-4), Noon ET
Prediction: East Carolina 34, Navy 24

Miami (Ohio) (7-4) at Bowling Green (7-4), Noon ET
Prediction: Miami 28, Bowling Green 23

Ball State (3-8) at Ohio (8-3), Noon ET
Prediction: Ohio 35, Ball State 21

Liberty (8-2) at Sam Houston (8-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Sam Houston 24, Liberty 23

Utah State (4-7) at Colorado State (7-4), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Colorado State 38, Utah State 27

Texas State (6-5) at South Alabama (6-5), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: South Alabama 31, Texas State 26

Stanford (3-8) at San Jose State (6-5), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Stanford 27, SJSU 24

Nebraska (6-5) at Iowa (7-4), 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Iowa 23, Nebraska 19

Utah (4-7) at UCF (4-7), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: UCF 24, Utah 17

Saturday's Games, Part 1

Duke (8-3) at Wake Forest (4-7), Noon ET
Prediction: Duke 32, Wake Forest 29

Louisville (7-4) at Kentucky (4-7), Noon ET
Prediction: Louisville 28, Kentucky 17

Kansas (5-6) at Baylor (7-4), Noon ET
Prediction: Kansas 31, Baylor 27

West Virginia (6-5) at Texas Tech (7-4), Noon ET
Prediction: Texas Tech 36, WVU 28

North Texas (5-6) at Temple (3-8), Noon ET
Prediction: North Texas 38, Temple 24

Louisiana (9-2) at Louisiana-Monroe (5-6), Noon ET
Prediction: Louisiana 34, ULM 20

Connecticut (7-4) at Massachusetts (2-9), Noon ET
Prediction: UConn 31, UMass 23

Eastern Michigan (5-6) at Western Michigan (5-6), 1:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: WMU 27, EMU 24

South Florida (6-5) at Rice (3-8), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: USF 34, Rice 28

Middle Tennessee (3-8) at Florida International (3-8), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: FIU 33, MTSU 26

Coastal Carolina (5-6) at Georgia State (3-8), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 31, Georgia State 24

Southern Miss (1-10) at Troy (3-8), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: Troy 30, Southern Miss 17

Pitt (7-4) at Boston College (6-5), 3 p.m. ET
Prediction: Boston College 28, Pitt 25

Old Dominion (4-7) at Arkansas State (7-4), 3 p.m. ET
Prediction: Arkansas State 33, ODU 27

Saturday's Games, Part 2

North Carolina State (5-6) at North Carolina (6-5), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: NC State 27, UNC 23

Rutgers (6-5) at Michigan State (5-6), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Michigan State 24, Rutgers 20

Fresno State (6-5) at UCLA (4-7), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: UCLA 23, Fresno State 19

UAB (3-8) at Charlotte (4-7), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Charlotte 33, UAB 24

Florida Atlantic (2-9) at Tulsa (3-8), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Tulsa 31, FAU 23

Central Michigan (4-7) at Northern Illinois (6-5), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: NIU 24, CMU 17

Jacksonville State (8-3) at Western Kentucky (7-4), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: WKU 34, Jax State 30

Kennesaw State (2-9) at Louisiana Tech (4-7), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 23, Kennesaw State 16

UTEP (2-9) at New Mexico State (3-8), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: NMSU 27, UTEP 24

TCU (7-4) at Cincinnati (5-6), 6 p.m. ET
Prediction: TCU 35, Cincinnati 27

Appalachian State (5-5) at Georgia Southern (7-4), 6 p.m. ET
Prediction: Georgia Southern 34, App State 28

Wyoming (2-9) at Washington State (8-3), 6:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Washington State 33, Wyoming 20

Florida (6-5) at Florida State (2-9), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Florida 30, Florida State 17

Oklahoma (6-5) at LSU (7-4), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: LSU 24, Oklahoma 21

Virginia (5-6) at Virginia Tech (5-6), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Virginia Tech 26, Virginia 20

Marshall (8-3) at James Madison (8-3), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: JMU 27, Marshall 23

Air Force (4-7) at San Diego State (3-8), 10:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Air Force 24, SDSU 21

New Mexico (5-6) at Hawaii (4-7), p.m. ET
Prediction: New Mexico 35, Hawaii 27