Things did not go as expected for Blake Snell in free agency a year ago.
Coming off 2023 NL Cy Young honors, he was expected to command a lucrative long-term contract as one of the top starting pitchers on the market, but the Scott Boras client saw his free agency drag into March before he finally agreed to a two-year, $62 million deal with the San Francisco Giants.
The abnormal offseason and limited spring training showed in his early performance, and he made just six starts over the first three months of the season, battling injury and struggling to a 9.51 ERA in 23.2 innings.
Snell turned a corner at the beginning of July, and in 14 starts over the final three months, he went 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 114 strikeouts in 80.1 innings while limiting opposing hitters to a minuscule .123 batting average.
That strong second half was enough for him to decline his player option for the 2025 season in favor of another run at free agency, and he is again among the top starting pitchers available this winter.
Where will he sign?
Ahead, we've highlighted his 10 most likely landing spots, but first let's take a closer look at how much it's going to cost.
What Is Snell's Value in Free Agency?
Blake Snell checked in at No. 4 on Bleacher Report's list of the Top 100 MLB free agents of the 2024-25 offseason, behind only Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames.
Aside from Burnes and Snell, Max Fried (5), Jack Flaherty (10) and Sean Manaea (11) represent the remaining members of the top tier of this year's starting pitching class, and those five pitchers all figure to land lucrative long-term deals, unless they prefer to aim for a higher AAV on a shorter contract.
The Los Angeles Angels just signed Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million deal, and that represents the first major data point on free-agent pitching values this winter. For reference, Kikuchi was No. 22 on the Top 100 list.
Snell left a $30 million salary for the 2025 season on the table when he opted out of his deal with the Giants, and it's well within reason to think he could match or top that on a new multi-year pact.
The two-time Cy Young winner turns 32 years old next month, making him roughly two years older than Carlos Rodón was when he signed his six-year, $162 million deal with the New York Yankees.
Rodón is a relevant comparison since he also had an up-and-down career prior to peaking right before free agency, and he profiles similarly as a swing-and-miss lefty capable of pitching like a frontline starter.
Snell might not be able to convince a team to give him six years, but he should be able to top the $27 million AAV of Rodón's deal, and a four-year, $120 million deal would match the salary he turned down while adding more future money to the equation.
The shorter the deal gets, the higher his AAV ask will likely climb, but expect Snell to prioritize getting a deal done before the start of spring training this time around so he can have a normal preseason.
10-6: Rangers, Braves, Yankees, Padres and Orioles
10. Texas Rangers
Projected 2025 Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle, Cody Bradford, Kumar Rocker
The Rangers lost Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen from last year's rotation, and while a full season of Jacob deGrom could provide a massive in-house boost, they still need to make at least a couple outside additions. According to Jon Heyman of The New York Post, they showed interest in Snell at the trade deadline, so the interest here is more than just speculative.
9. Atlanta Braves
Projected 2025 Rotation: Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes, Ian Anderson
With Spencer Strider still recovering from Tommy John surgery and both Max Fried and Charlie Morton departing in free agency, the Braves have some work to do shoring up the starting rotation. Morton and Fried made a combined $35 million in 2023, so there is some money to spend if they want to splurge on a rotation addition, but a second-tier arm still looks like their most likely target.
8. New York Yankees
Projected 2025 Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Marcus Stroman, Luis Gil
The Yankees can't be ruled out as a potential landing spot, but they have more pressing needs this winter. The top priority will be re-signing Juan Soto, and if they fail to do that, their attention will immediately shift to alternative options to add an impact bat to the lineup. They also have a hole to plug at either second base or third base, depending on where Jazz Chisholm Jr. plays, and will likely also be in the market for some high-leverage relief help.
7. San Diego Padres
Projected 2025 Rotation: Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, Michael King, Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron
The Padres will be looking for rotation help with Joe Musgrove recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Snell was awfully good last time he was wearing a Padres uniform and wrapping up 2023 NL Cy Young honors. There were a lot of moving parts last offseason when he ultimately walked in free agency, but things are a bit more straightforward for the Padres this winter, and Snell would fill a major hole.
6. Baltimore Orioles
Projected 2025 Rotation: Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez, Trevor Rogers
If the Orioles are unable to re-sign ace Corbin Burnes, they will need to move quickly to find a suitable replacement. A full season of Zach Eflin and a healthy campaign from Grayson Rodriguez will help, but if this young team on the rise is going to take the next step, it needs a true ace it can lean on. That said, the younger Max Fried (30) looks like a better target for a long-term deal, while the trade market is also a potential avenue to explore given the O's wealth of young talent.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Projected 2025 Rotation
1. RHP Kevin Gausman
2. RHP José Berríos
3. RHP Bowden Francis
4. RHP Chris Bassitt
5. RHP Yariel Rodríguez
The Toronto Blue Jays made a serious push to sign Shohei Ohtani last offseason, and while it came up short, it showed their willingness to spend with the big dogs.
They still have the veteran trio of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt coming back atop the starting rotation, but 2024 breakout starter Bowden Francis is a potential regression candidate (4.36 FIP backing his 3.30 ERA) and Yariel Rodríguez rarely pitched deep into games as a serviceable No. 5 starter.
A busy offseason might help convince Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to stick around on a long-term deal as he enters a contract year, and Snell would move the needle and potentially make this one of the best rotations in baseball.
4. San Francisco Giants
Projected 2025 Rotation
1. RHP Logan Webb
2. LHP Robbie Ray
3. RHP Jordan Hicks
4. LHP Kyle Harrison
5. RHP Landen Roupp
Just because Snell opted out of a $30 million salary with the Giants for the upcoming season, that doesn't mean a reunion in San Francisco is out of the question.
In fact, it sounds like it is very much on the table.
"[Snell] loved San Francisco and he thrived in San Francisco, and if you love San Francisco, there's a good chance you end up in San Francisco," MLB insider Jon Heyman said in a Bleacher Report live stream.
Workhorse ace Logan Webb and a healthy Robbie Ray are a potentially strong one-two punch for the Giants, but they need at least one more effective starter to make a push in the NL West.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected 2025 Rotation
1. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2. RHP Tyler Glasnow
3. RHP Shohei Ohtani
4. RHP Tony Gonsolin
5. RHP Bobby Miller
The Dodgers rotation has been loaded with left-handed pitchers in recent years, but as things stand, it is poised to be an exclusively right-handed staff.
That could change if Clayton Kershaw decides to return for another season, and there is a case to be made that the Dodgers don't need to even make a major outside addition to the staff if that's the case, with Shohei Ohtani returning to the mound and Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May all back healthy.
Still, it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see the Dodgers make a splash atop the rotation, and Snell fits the type of pitcher they have built their staff around in the past.
2. New York Mets
Projected 2025 Rotation
1. RHP Kodai Senga
2. LHP David Peterson
3. RHP Paul Blackburn
4. RHP Tylor Megill
5. RHP José Buttó
Juan Soto seems to be the top priority for the New York Mets, but regardless of what happens with his free agency, they will also be in the market for multiple starting pitchers after Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and José Quintana all walked in free agency.
To that point, they might be the most likely landing spot for Corbin Burnes on a long-term deal, but even if they reel in both Soto and Burnes, that doesn't mean they're going to stop spending.
Until those spots in the rotation are filled, the Mets have to be considered a potential suitor for all of the market's top starting pitchers, and that includes Snell who would immediately become the ace of the staff in its current form.
1. Boston Red Sox
Projected 2025 Rotation
1. RHP Tanner Houck
2. RHP Brayan Bello
3. RHP Kutter Crawford
4. RHP Richard Fitts
5. RHP Cooper Criswell
From a logic standpoint, the Boston Red Sox might be the best fit for Snell.
Even with the emergence of Tanner Houck and the eventual return of Lucas Giolito, this team is in serious need of front end rotation help, and they have the financial flexibility to make a short-term, high AAV pitch or a long-term offer.
Snell also has a good record at Fenway Park from his time with the Tampa Bay Rays, with a 3.10 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 32 strikeouts in 29 career innings in Boston. That past success, coupled with his swing-and-miss stuff, makes him a strong fit at what is traditionally a hitter's park.
Landing one of the market's top starters should be the No. 1 priority for the Red Sox this offseason.
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