The best way to imagine what it's like to shop at the high end of the MLB free-agent market is to think of a box of chocolates with a $1 million price tag.

Dang expensive, and you still don't know what you're going to get.

We're going to take this concept and run with it by looking closely at 10 free agents who are just as likely to go bust as they are to go boom.

Whether it's according to B/R's Tim Kelly or another source, each is likely to sign a multiyear deal that pays out eight figures annually. And while all of them deserve their due riches, each comes with as many questions as exclamation marks.

It's just as noteworthy who's not on this list, including Juan Soto, Willy Adames, Alex Bregman, Max Fried and Blake Snell. They are going to cost a lot of money, but each comes off looking relatively safe by free-agent standards.

In any case, we'll go in ascending order of Tim's contract projections.

RHP Nick Pivetta

Age: 31

2024 Stats: 26 GS, 145.2 IP, 128 H (28 HR), 172 K, 36 BB, 4.14 ERA

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Contract Prediction: N/A

Why He Could Go Boom

Though Tim isn't bullish on Nick Pivetta, FanGraphs and ESPN's Jeff Passan both project that the righty will sign a three-year contract.

Shocking? Not exactly.

Though Pivetta has a below average 92 ERA+ for his career, he's also averaged 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings. And among all pitchers who logged at least 100 innings in 2024, he ranked No. 1 in Stuff+, which measures pitch quality through "physical characteristics."

Though he's a bit older, Pivetta vaguely resembles Zack Wheeler when he hit the market after 2019. He may not have ace-level results to show for it, but the ace-level stuff is there.

Why He Could Go Bust

Throughout MLB history, there have always been pitchers who should be unhittable, yet who are, in fact, very hittable.

This is Pivetta, and that is most apparent in how easy it is to take him on long rides via the long ball. He has never had a season in which he's allowed home runs at a smaller clip than 1.3 per nine innings.

Boston wasn't the best place for him in this regard, but he can't blame this year's bout of homeritis on Fenway Park. Of the 28 homers he allowed, 20 came on the road.

2B Gleyber Torres

Age: 27

2024 Stats: 154 G, 665 PA, 15 HR, 4 SB, .257 AVG, .330 OBP, .378 SLG

Qualifying Offer: No

Contract Prediction: 1 year, $15 million

Why He Could Go Boom

Tim may well be prophetic in projecting a one-year deal for Gleyber Torres, but both MLB Trade Rumors and FanGraphs have him down for a multi-year deal.

A team might be willing to make such a bet based solely on the notion that Torres needs a change of scenery. He's uncommonly young for a free agent, so he may yet recapture the brilliance of his All-Star seasons for the New York Yankees in 2018 and 2019.

Or, teams could see him as the best leadoff man of this winter's free-agent class.

Torres hasn't always been a leadoff man, but he sure took to the job well down the stretch of 2024. After taking over as the Yankees' regular in the No. 1 hole on August 16, he hit .313 with a .840 OPS.

Why He Could Go Bust

The change-of-scenery aspect of Torres' free agency is legit. He's simply too young to have exhausted all his talent.

It is nonetheless fair to question whether the power he showed earlier in his career is gone for good.

That was a juiced ball era, after all, and Torres' fly balls are shorter on average than they were back then. He's also coming off a mere 35.4 hard-hit percentage. It's the lowest mark of his career, and it landed him in the 23rd percentile among all hitters.

LF/RF Tyler O'Neill

Age: 29

2024 Stats: 113 G, 473 PA, 31 HR, 4 SB, .241 AVG, .336 OBP, .511 SLG

Qualifying Offer: No

Contract Prediction: 2 years, $28 million

Why He Could Go Boom

If all a team wants is a guy who can hit the crud out of the ball, it could do worse than Tyler O'Neill.

His 1980s-action-star physique isn't merely for aesthetics. He's always been an effective slugger when he's been healthy, and especially so in 2024. By isolated power, he was the fifth-best power hitter of the year.

O'Neill was in the top two percent of hitters with his 17.3 barrel percentage. That tracks batted balls that have an expected batting average of at least .500 and an expected slugging percentage of 1.500 or better.

And don't worry. The Green Monster didn't actually help the righty-swinging O'Neill all that much. The 31 homers he hit this year were split between 16 at home and 15 on the road.

Why He Could Go Bust

There tend to be long stretches when O'Neill is either absent or invisible.

Time on the injured list is a fact of life for him in any given season, and that isn't likely to change as he gets into his 30s. He's otherwise prone to long-lasting slumps. For example, he hit just .213 with a 37.0 strikeout percentage in May and June of this year.

Strikeouts in general are another fact of life for O'Neill, who's fanned in 30.8 percent of his career plate appearances. And contrary to 2020 and 2021, he isn't a Gold Glove-caliber defender in the outfield anymore.

LF Jurickson Profar

Age: 31

2024 Stats: 158 G, 668 PA, 24 HR, 10 SB, .280 AVG, .380 OBP, .459 SLG

Qualifying Offer: No

Contract Prediction: 2 years, $34 million

Why He Could Go Boom

Whatever he ends up getting, Jurickson Profar deserves a nice raise over the $1 million he signed for last winter.

He didn't luck in a career year, after all. He was the top year-to-year gainer from 2023 to 2024 in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, and the second-biggest for expected weighted on-base average.

Further, this wasn't a case of a hitter riding a few good months to a good season. Profar did cool down in August, but his OPS otherwise stayed above .800 in the other five months of the 2024 season.

Only seven other hitters can claim to have done the same, and among them are Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

Why He Could Go Bust

The word "outlier" comes to mind when assessing Profar's 2024 season.

Even after adding 28 to the ledger, he still has a total of minus-six Batting Runs for his career. And we're talking 11 seasons, so the sheer 2006 Gary Matthews Jr. energy surrounding this situation is strong indeed.

Profar isn't as fast or as effective on defense as you'd expect for a guy with such a slender build. Come the end of 2024, he was in the red for Outs Above Average and in the 26th percentile for sprint speed.

RHP Luis Severino

Age: 30

2024 Stats: 31 GS, 182.0 IP, 166 H (23 HR), 161 K, 60 BB, 3.91 ERA

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Contract Prediction: 2 years, $38.5 million

Why He Could Go Boom

Regarding Torres as a potential change of scenery candidate, there is perhaps no better proof of concept than Luis Severino.

He got away from the Yankees and, voilà, became a whole new pitcher through a few simple changes. Notably, by throwing fewer four-seamers and more sinkers and by introducing a nasty new sweeper.

Severino is not the swing-and-miss merchant that he was in his heyday, but he manages contact better these days. For 2024, he was in the 72nd percentile for ground-ball rate and the 88th percentile for exit velocity.

Between the regular season and the playoffs, he also pitched 198.2 innings. That basically makes him superhuman by modern standards.

Why He Could Go Bust

What are the chances that Severino can handle that kind of workload even once more?

He is sturdily built at 6'2", 218 pounds, but this is a guy who managed a total of 230 innings across 2019 and 2023 because of injuries. And as of February 20, he's officially on the wrong side of 30.

Severino also continued to have issues with left-handed batters in 2024. Their OPS against him was much lower (.774) than it had been in 2023 (1.005), but still well above the sub-.700 figures he had posted in the late 2010s.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Age: 34

2024 Stats: 29 GS, 170.2 IP, 147 H (23 HR), 166 K, 42 BB, 3.80 ERA

Qualifying Offer: No

Contract Prediction: 2 years, $39 million

Why He Could Go Boom

It's Nathan Eovaldi. How much more do you really need to know?

He's been around since 2011, but it's really in the last seven seasons that he's blossomed into a consistent top-of-the-rotation type. These seasons house 63 percent of his career rWAR.

Though he's in his mid-30s, Eovaldi is still averaging 95.4 mph on his fastball and throwing strikes with aplomb. He walked only 6.0 percent of the batters he faced this season.

With Eovaldi, you're also getting an impressive playoff track record. He has a 3.05 ERA in the postseason, and only he and Stephen Strasburg have ever gone 5-0 within a single playoff run.

Why He Could Go Bust

How much would you be willing to bet on a two-time Tommy John surgery survivor who turns 35 on February 13?

That is a scary combination of words, alright, and Eovaldi's radar gun readings frankly mask how his stuff is declining. Per Stuff+, his pitches were below average in 2024.

The righty has also had a difficult time avoiding hard contact in recent years. For the last three, specifically, his hard-hit percentage has hovered in the low-to-mid 40s. The league average for 2024 was 38.9 percent.

RHP Jack Flaherty

Age: 29

2024 Stats: 28 GS, 162.0 IP, 135 H (24 HR), 194 K, 38 BB, 3.17 ERA

Qualifying Offer: No

Contract Prediction: 3 years, $60 million

Why He Could Go Boom

Tim's projection is on the low end for Jack Flaherty's earning power. Predictions for his deal go up to nine figures, including $115 million for MLB Trade Rumors.

Youth is part of his appeal. He's only coming off his age-28 season, and he's indeed done a lot for a young pitcher. He's received votes for Rookie of the Year, MVP and the Cy Young Award, and he's a World Series champion as of a few weeks ago.

This season was otherwise a long-awaited return to form for Flaherty. He ranked in the top 10 for strikeout-to-walk ratio, as well as in the top 10 percent with his strikeout and whiff rates.

A bet on Flaherty, then, is a bet on getting a top-of-the-rotation pitcher for the duration of the contract.

Why He Could Go Bust

As good as Flaherty was in 2024, there's still no escaping the sense that his rise as a true No. 1 back in 2019 isn't going to happen again.

His average fastball is 1.0 mph slower than it was back then, and its value as a pitch was basically exhausted by the time July was over. That was about when concerns about his back were part of the news cycle.

This is not to imply Flaherty is doomed to go back to the pitcher he was between 2020 and 2023, when he had a 4.42 ERA. But it can't be ruled out either.

RF Anthony Santander

Age: 30

2024 Stats: 155 G, 665 PA, 44 HR, 2 SB, .235 AVG, .308 OBP, .506 SLG

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Contract Prediction: 5 years, $101 million

Why He Could Go Boom

Looking for power? Because Anthony Santander has lots of it.

He averaged 33 home runs per 162 games between 2019 and 2023, and he obviously stepped it up a notch this season. This was even despite a slow start, as 35 of his homers came in the last four months of 2024.

Santander is also more of a complete hitter than his OBP lets on. He drew a solid 8.7 walk percentage this year, with an even more solid whiff rate that landed in the 77th percentile.

As switch-hitters go, Santander really is balanced. For his career, he has a .772 OPS against righties and a .786 OPS against lefties.

Why He Could Go Bust

Though Santander went deep 44 times this season, Statcast estimates that it should have been more like 37. No other hitter had as wide of a gap in this regard.

As such, there is the risk of paying for a 40-homer hitter and only getting the 30-homer hitter that Santander was earlier in his career. Which would be suboptimal, as he doesn't have much to offer outside the batter's box.

He's a poor outfielder, as seen in his minus-13 Outs Above Average for his career. He likewise has modest arm strength relative to other right fielders.

1B Pete Alonso

Age: 29

2024 Stats: 162 G, 695 PA, 34 HR, 3 SB, .240 AVG, .329 OBP, .459 SLG

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Contract Prediction: 5 years, $135 million

Why He Could Go Boom

Pete Alonso has been in the league for six years. And in this time, only Aaron Judge has more home runs than Alonso's 226.

Perhaps it doesn't need to be more complicated than that, but there's also an underrated aspect of Alonso's mastery of hitting dingers. He's hit 115 homers with men on since 2019, which is 19 more than Judge has.

In addition to elite home run power, Alonso is going to give you a walk rate near or over 10 percent. To this point, these two qualities alone have sustained him as an above-average hitter.

The other thing about Alonso is that he posts. Since his debut on March 28, 2019, he's played in 97 percent of all possible games.

Why He Could Go Bust

How big of a deal is it that Alonso is coming off his worst season?

It was his worst according to his .788 OPS, anyway, and there are real issues underneath that number. A career-high rate of ground balls is one. He also didn't pull as many fly balls as he usually does.

More generally, the aging curve for right-handed-hitting, right-handed-throwing first basemen is rough. Even Albert Pujols didn't last long as a star after turning 30, and Alonso will arrive at that point on December 7.

RHP Corbin Burnes

Age: 30

2024 Stats: 32 GS, 194.1 IP, 165 H (22 HR), 181 K, 48 BB, 2.92 ERA

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Contract Prediction: 7 years, $224 million

Why He Could Go Boom

Max Fried and Blake Snell are also aces looking for work in free agency, but Corbin Burnes is likely to best their contracts by tens of millions of dollars.

Go back to when he moved into the Milwaukee Brewers' starting rotation in 2020, and he has a 2.87 ERA over his last 133 starts. Those come with 4.4 times as many strikeouts as walks.

The knock against the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner concerns how his strikeout rate dipped into the 51st percentile this season. But there was a method at play there, as Burnes signaled in May that he was content to get weak contact in lieu of chasing Ks.

To this end, it's hard to argue with either a 48.8 ground-ball percentage (81st percentile) or a 31.6 hard-hit percentage (95th percentile).

Why He Could Go Bust

Even though he's ostensibly the best pitcher to hit the market since Gerrit Cole back in 2019, it's hard to see Burnes in a similar light.

When Cole was a free agent, he was coming off a career year that still stands as the best full-season strikeout fest of all time. Burnes can't say the same, and there's reason to suspect that his diminished strikeout rate wasn't entirely a stylistic choice.

Whereas it was once in the 98th percentile in 2021, his whiff rate was in the 69th percentile in 2023 and only improved to the 74th percentile this year. Per Stuff+, the quality of his pitches is also declining.

To be sure, Burnes should still have a few more good years in him. But any team that signs him hoping the 2021 version still exists in some form will likely be disappointed.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.