We're only a month into the 2024-25 NBA season, and there's already been plenty of surprises in the early standings.

Only four of the 15 teams in the Eastern Conference are above .500. The Cleveland Cavaliers and a 15-1 start to the season has them above the defending champion Boston Celtics. A 10-3 beginning for the Golden State Warriors is a pleasant surprise for fans by the bay, while franchises such as the Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks and New Orleans Pelicans are currently outside of the Play-In Tournament picture.

Based on current records, players missing due to injury and other factors, here's a best guess at how a full 2025 NBA playoff bracket will look.

(4) Orlando Magic vs. (5) Indiana Pacers

Orlando Magic

Current Record/Seed: 9-6, 3rd in East

Orlando has impressed by putting together six-straight wins despite losing All-Star Paolo Banchero to a torn right oblique muscle.

Like last year, this team defends at a high level (103.9 rating, 2nd overall). Also like last year, it has struggled to generate any kind of offense or make a shot from outside the arc (31.0 percent from three, dead-last overall).

Newly-signed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope can only get better (7.3 points, 24.2 percent from three) and Banchero will hopefully return before Christmas. This team should probably look to add another playmaker and/or shooter via trade at some point, although the East is bad enough that Orlando will still secure home-court advantage in the first round.

Indiana Pacers

Current Record/Seed: 6-9, 8th in East

Injuries have hurt Indiana's interior depth and Tyrese Haliburton's offensive struggles (16.1 points, 28.8 percent from three) have slowed the Pacers this season.

On a positive note, third-year wing Bennedict Mathurin has been awesome after missing the entire 2024 postseason with a shoulder injury and Pascal Siakam is shooting a career-high 46.0 percent from three.

This is far from the elite Pacers offense we saw a year ago. Unless Haliburton plays like an All-Star again, Indiana won't climb higher than fifth in the East.

(3) New York Knicks vs. (6) Miami Heat

New York Knicks

Current Record/Seed: 8-6, 4th in East

We expected a new-look Knicks team to hit some bumps to begin the season, but there's enough talent on this roster for us to believe New York will eventually begin to separate itself as an elite team in the East.

Karl-Anthony Towns has been awesome in a full-time return to center (26.2 points, 12.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 51.5 percent from three), helping to fuel a Knicks offense that ranks No. 3 overall to begin the year (121.1 rating).

However, there are real questions surrounding this team's depth and defense (115.3 rating, 21st overall), which are two factors that will ultimately keep them below the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers in the standings.

Miami Heat

Current Record/Seed: 6-7, 6th in East

In the West, the Miami Heat would be battling the New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz at the bottom of the conference. In this East, though, Jimmy Butler and Co. still look like a playoff team.

This is a roster in dire need of a shakeup. The offense is average. The team's defense has been so-so. Miami's most-used lineup of Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jović and Bam Adebayo has been a disaster together (minus-19.6 net rating, 3rd percentile via Cleaning the Glass).

There's nothing exciting about this Heat team right now, which somehow still makes them good enough for a sixth seed in the East.

(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers

Boston Celtics

Current Record/Seed: 12-3, 2nd in East

Boston has mostly looked dominant again this season, although a loss to the Atlanta Hawks without Trae Young and a squeaker of a win over the lowly Toronto Raptors has us questioning how serious they'll take the regular season.

The Celtics offense has remained elite (121.8 rating, second overall) although a 13th-ranked defense to begin the year is a little concerning. The eventual return of Kristaps Porziņģis will help on both ends.

Expect this team to finish between 55-60 wins again and fall no further than the No. 2 seed in the East.

Philadelphia 76ers

Current Record/Seed: 2-12, 15th in East

Normally a 2-12 start to the season would spell doom for a franchise's playoff hopes. In this Eastern Conference, however, Philly is just four games out of the No. 5 seed.

The Sixers finally played their first game with Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey, who just returned from a hamstring injury. If all three can stay on the court and Embiid ramps back up to an MVP level, we should see the Sixers start to string some wins together and make a run back up the standings.

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (8) Milwaukee Bucks

Cleveland Cavaliers

Current Record/Seed: 16-1, 1st in East

A narrow loss to the Celtics in Boston without four of their best wings (Max Strus, Caris LeVert, Isaac Okoro and Dean Wade) isn't enough to make us believe the Cavs will fall in the standings.

Cleveland's offense has skyrocketed this season under new head coach Kenny Atkinson (122.2 rating, first in the NBA) with an emphasis on both player and ball movement. This has also become the best three-point shooting team (41.5 percent) in the league as well.

It's fair to question how well the Cavs stack up against the Celtics in a playoff series, but there's no reason to expect Cleveland to slide in the regular-season standings with a young and hungry roster.

Milwaukee Bucks

Current Record/Seed: 6-9, 10th in East

The Bucks have shown some life as of late, winning four of their last five games following a dreadful start to the season.

Khris Middleton will return at some point soon from ankle surgeries and Gary Trent Jr. (7.6 points, 31.6 percent from three) will only get better.

Basketball Reference still gives the Bucks a 71.5 percent chance at making the playoffs despite their 10th spot in the standings. The East is weak enough that we can't argue, either.

(4) Houston Rockets vs. (5) Dallas Mavericks

Houston Rockets

Current Record/Seed: 10-5, 4th in West

One of the season's best surprises thus far, the Rockets are showing us that their hot end to 2023-24 was no fluke.

The offense still has a lot of mouths to feed with a roster full of young talent, although Houston's defense has been special (105.2 rating, 3rd overall) behind the play of Dillon Brooks, Amen Thompson and others.

Not all of the team's past first-round picks will stay here and thrive, and this will be a franchise to watch when the next wave of All-Stars inevitably hits the trade market.

For now, though, this is a playoff team that has a real shot at securing home-court advantage in the first round.

Dallas Mavericks

Current Record/Seed: 8-7, 11th in West

Following an embarrassing loss to the bottom-feeding Utah Jazz, Dallas has won three in a row and should start climbing the West standings.

Luka Dončić hasn't looked like himself yet while battling a knee issue (43.5 percent shooting overall, 32.4 percent from three) and role players such as P.J. Washington and Naji Marshall haven't shot the ball well yet, either.

Dallas is going to need a healthy Dončić to make another deep playoff run and have any hope of a top seed in the West.

(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Los Angeles Lakers

Denver Nuggets

Current Record/Seed: 8-5, 5th in West

Despite the loss of key players in free agency and to injuries, the Nuggets seem to still do just fine as long as Nikola Jokić is on the floor.

Denver is 7-3 with its three-time MVP, who's somehow having his best season while leading the NBA in rebounds (13.7), assists (11.7) and three-point shooting (56.4 percent).

Russell Westbrook looks like a good pickup thus far, and Christian Braun, 23, has thrived in a starting role (16.2 points, 42.5 percent from three).

The Nuggets will again be a top team in the West as long as Jokić is healthy.

Los Angeles Lakers

Current Record/Seed: 10-4, 3rd in West

Give new head coach JJ Redick and the Lakers a lot of credit for their hot start, although forgive us if we don't believe a No. 3 seed is sustainable.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis have combined to miss just one game thus far, although both are averaging over 35 minutes a game. This is a worrisome number, especially as James gets set to turn 40 next month.

This isn't a deep roster. If James and Davis can avoid injury, this team will be fine. But Redick will likely need to lessen their workloads for that to happen.

(2) Golden State Warriors vs. (7) Minnesota Timberwolves

Golden State Warriors

Current Record/Seed: 10-3, 1st in West

The Warriors' strategy of loading up on a lot of really good veteran free agents this offseason is working, as Golden State has looked like the deepest team in the league so far.

A whopping 56.4 points per game from the bench is by far the highest average in the NBA while Buddy Hield (16.9 points, 46.2 percent from three) should be the early favorite for Sixth Man of the Year.

Many were quick to bury the Warriors last year, especially after Klay Thompson departed the franchise. This may not be a championship-caliber team, but it will finish as a top seed in the West.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Current Record/Seed: 8-6, 7th in West

It's expectedly taken the Wolves some time to jell after swapping Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, and the latter has yet to find his shooting stroke (9.4 points on 34.9 percent shooting overall).

A defense that finished first in the NBA a season ago has fallen to 12th now—111.7 rating—yet still has the personnel (Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, etc.) to end up being one of the top units once again.

We trust Anthony Edwards can keep Minnesota in the playoff hunt, and rookie Rob Dillingham should contribute more as the season progresses.

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Phoenix Suns

Oklahoma City Thunder

Current Record/Seed: 12-4, 2nd in West

A depleted frontcourt caused the Thunder to briefly fall from the top spot in the West, yet the return of Isaiah Hartenstein (13 points, 14 rebounds, three assists, four blocks in his first game with OKC) will help them reclaim the No. 1 seed.

Already with the top-ranked defense in the NBA even without Hartenstein, the Thunder will use his rim protection and rebounding to help squeeze the life out of opponents even further.

This is still the top team in the West, even without Chet Holmgren.

Phoenix Suns

Current Record/Seed: 9-6, 6th in West

Where the Suns ultimately finish in the standings will depend on how many games Kevin Durant can suit up for.

Phoenix is 8-1 with its All-Star forward this season but has fallen to just 1-5 when he misses out due to injury. Devin Booker and Bradley Beal have missed time as well.

With Booker now healthy and Durant and Beal possibly returning next week, expect the Suns' slide to end.