As the hot stove starts to churn, we've tried to rank all 30 MLB teams into six tiers based on how aggressive they project to be this offseason.

Here are the six tiers.

Tier 1: Teams That Are Participating in 2025

Tier 2: The Angels

Tier 3: Emerging Teams That Need To Spend

Tier 4: Contending Teams That Will Make Moderate Additions

Tier 5: Teams That Will Spend, Although It's Unclear To What Degree

Tier 6: Teams That Will Either Sign Juan Soto or Land Multiple Stars Another Way

Let's take a look at what tier each team falls into.

Tier 1: Teams That Are Participating in 2025

Teams in This Tier

1. Colorado Rockies

2. Miami Marlins

3. Chicago White Sox

4. Cleveland Guardians

5. Tampa Bay Rays

6. St. Louis Cardinals

Every year, there's a group of teams that are just participating because of financial constraints ownership has put on their front office.

That doesn't necessarily mean they won't have successful seasons. The Guardians and Rays are both in contention most seasons. But ownership won't typically authorize major expenditures to enhance tremendous player development. Cleveland, for example, just reached the ALCS, and yet there's speculation they will trade first baseman Josh Naylor before his final year of arbitration eligibility. Naylor was an All-Star in 2024, clubbing 31 home runs and driving in 108 runs. Ownership groups hell-bent on winning a World Series simply wouldn't trade a player like that.

Then there's Dick Monfort in Colorado, who has a beautiful ballpark that he knows fans will come out to 81 times a season. Rarely does the Rockies owner reward the loyal fanbase by spending to build a consistent contender. The Rockies have had six consecutive losing seasons, and yet Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported in October that Colorado is likely to have a lower payroll in 2025 than 2024. Maybe some of that can be attributed to a veteran like Charlie Blackmon coming off the books, but it's indicative of an ownership group that may hope to make the postseason, but if they don't, they don't.

A surprise entrant onto this list this year is the Cardinals. It appears St. Louis will take a step back at the MLB level in 2025 and divert some of those resources from MLB payroll to player development. That means Paul Goldschmidt and Kyle Gibson will depart in free agency, while Ryan Helsley and Nolan Arenado could be traded.

Tier 2: The Angels

Teams in This Tier

1. Los Angeles Angels

While Shohei Ohtani won a World Series in his first season after leaving the Angels, the Halos went 63-99 with a minus-162 run differential. Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon played a combined 86 games in manager Ron Washington's first year on the job.

Still, the Angels have been an active team early in the offseason, with general manager Perry Minasian acquiring Jorge Soler's contract ($32 million total over next two seasons) from the Atlanta Braves in a trade, while also signing veterans Travis d'Arnaud (two years, $12 million) and Kyle Hendricks (one year, $2.5 million).

Owner Arte Moreno has always been willing to spend, but specifically over the last decade, there's seemed to be a lack of a plan as to how he's utilized his money. Will those three veterans make the Angels better in 2025? Sure...maybe they'll win 68 games instead of 63.

But while there's definitely some young talent in Anaheim—Zach Neto, Logan O'Hoppe and Ben Joyce among them—there's a lack of a coherent plan. Even with some moderate veteran additions, 2025 will likely be the 10th consecutive losing season for the Angels—a trend that doesn't figure to change anytime soon.

Tier 3: Emerging Teams That Need To Spend

Teams in This Tier

1. Detroit Tigers

2. Cincinnati Reds

3. Pittsburgh Pirates

4. Washington Nationals

5. Seattle Mariners

6. Athletics

The ownership groups on this list, at best, have spent inconsistently in recent years. But all have enough talent that they should make major investment this offseason to try to build around the talent they already have internally.

It wasn't that long ago that the Tigers and Nationals were two of the bigger spenders in baseball. However, both franchises have seen their owners—Mike Ilitch and Ted Lerner—pass away in the last decade. Now, younger generations of those families need to show that they are as committed to spending on star players.

The one that really sticks out on this list as needing to spend in a meaningful way right now is the Pirates. Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller make up an excellent trio in the starting rotation. Between health and the reality that the first two arms—particularly Skenes, the NL Rookie of the Year—are going to get more expensive as time goes along, there should be a sense of urgency in Pittsburgh. Owner Bob Nutting needs to spend like 2025 and 2026 are his best chance to win a World Series in the foreseeable future, because that's probably the case.

Color us skeptical Nutting will meet the moment.

Tier 4: Contending Teams That Will Make Moderate Additions

Teams in This Tier

1. Chicago Cubs

2. Minnesota Twins

3. Texas Rangers

4. Milwaukee Brewers

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

The teams in this tier are going to spend some in free agency, but it feels like there's a clear limit on how far they will be willing to go.

This most inexplicably applies to the Cubs, who didn't even bother to try to get a meeting with Juan Soto. The way president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer operates under the Ricketts Family is how you end up with a roster that has a lot of nice pieces but a lack of superstars. Even if you believe there's such a team as a small-market team, the Cubs certainly wouldn't fall into that category. But they always seem to stop short of spending like a team from Chicago should.

Elsewhere in the NL Central, it's hard to rank the Brewers in a group other than this. They aren't going to sit out free agency, but there's almost no shot they re-sign Willy Adames, while closer Devin Williams could be traded before his contract year. General manager Matt Arnold has clear restrictions placed on him by owner Mark Attanasio, which often prevents the Brewers from keeping their star players.

The Diamondbacks get a relative pass because they spent quite a bit last offseason on the trio of Jordan Montgomery, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Eduardo Rodríguez. They didn't necessarily get a great return on that, but it stands to reason they could get better performance in 2025. They also picked up the $15 million option on third baseman Eugenio Suárez. This is a club that won 89 games in 2024, and with some moderate additions could very well win the top wild-card spot in the NL in 2025.

Tier 5: Teams That Will Spend, Although It's Unclear To What Degree

Teams in This Tier

1. Philadelphia Phillies

2. Houston Astros

3. San Francisco Giants

4. Toronto Blue Jays

5. Boston Red Sox

6. Baltimore Orioles

7. Kansas City Royals

8. Atlanta Braves

9. San Diego Padres

All these teams have shown a willingness to spend in recent years, and they'll likely continue to do so this winter. It's just a matter of how much they will spend.

A team like the Phillies has needs and an aggressive owner in John Middleton, paired with an all-in president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. They also have an MLB-high $223.6 million in commitments towards their 2025 payroll already. After an early playoff exit, the Phillies certainly are going to be active this winter. Perhaps, though, it will be more on the trade market than in free agency.

The Braves and Orioles will both spend as well, although it may be to replace their ace pitchers rather than to pony up and re-sign them. On B/R, we've projected that Max Fried—six years, $168 million—and Corbin Burnes—seven years, $224 million—will both be pitching for new teams in 2025.

The Blue Jays and Red Sox have both had meetings with Juan Soto, but if they don't land the five-time Silver Slugger Award winner, it's not yet clear if they'll have a pivot that comes anywhere close to being as all-in as a Soto signing would be.

Perhaps the most interesting team on this list is the Giants, with former NL MVP Buster Posey now serving as their president of baseball operations. He's talked about wanting to figure the shortstop position out, which is why we've projected the Giants as the landing spot for Adames. But San Francisco has had a hard time getting star players to sign on the dotted line in recent years, probably due in large part to Oracle Park being seen as a bad place to hit at 81 times a season.

Tier 6: Teams That Will Either Sign Juan Soto or Land Multiple Stars Another Way

Teams in This Tier

1. New York Yankees

2. New York Mets

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

Another team could emerge victorious in the Soto sweepstakes, but it's always seemed like the 26-year-old superstar would sign with one of the two New York franchises—the incumbent Yankees or the Steve Cohen-financed Mets.

If that turns out to be the case, whichever of the two New York teams doesn't land Soto would become the immediate favorite to sign Pete Alonso. Perhaps the Mets would pivot to the aforementioned Burnes, with president of baseball operations David Stearns having previously been with him in Milwaukee. Adames, if he is indeed willing to play third base, could also be a fit. Ditto for Alex Bregman. The list goes on. One team will get Soto, the other will probably land multiple top-15 free agents as the consolation prize.

As for the Dodgers, is there any doubt they will spend? They are reportedly going to meet with Soto. That feels like a longshot, but they need reliable starting pitching and Burnes could very well help the Dodgers as they try to repeat as World Series Champions. They'll either need to re-sign Teoscar Hernández or find someone else to fill that void in the outfield. And if Williams and/or Helsley get traded, the Dodgers make sense as a landing spot for one of the star closers.