A majority of "MLB team executives and baseball insiders" surveyed by ESPN believe that the New York Yankees will sign Juan Soto to the second largest contract in the history of MLB free agency.
Out of 18 people surveyed, 11 predicted that Soto would receive more than $600 million on his next contract, per ESPN's Jesse Rogers.
Of those survey respondents, 12 predicted that Soto would sign with the Yankees, while four guessed the New York Mets and two chose the Toronto Blue Jays.
"The message we heard from our insiders was clear: The Yankees don't let stars walk. That happens to other teams," Rogers wrote.
Shohei Ohtani signed a $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers last year to mark the largest deal in MLB history. The Yankees already hold the second-largest contract in the league after signing Aaron Judge to a $360 million deal before the 2023 season.
Several MLB executives expressed confidence that the Yankees would do whatever it takes to retain Soto after he led the AL with 128 runs last season.
One "smaller market" executive told Rogers he doubted the Yankees would allow Soto to walk: "Do you think George Steinbrenner would allow one of the best players in the world to leave? I know the Dodgers are the new Yankees, but he's in pinstripes now."
Another executive told Rogers, "I think Brian Cashman will show ownership just how valuable he is to their lineup."
The comments echoed a quote from another anonymous executive from an AL team shared on Monday by MLB.com's Mark Feinsand.
"It's the Yankees or the Mets," the executive told Feinsand. "He knows the Yankees well after spending a year there, and Steve Cohen has enough money to give him whatever he wants if he decides he wants him badly enough. It's tough for me to see Soto winding up anywhere else."
The Yankees traded for Soto ahead of the 2024 season as a team in need of a left-handed batter.
Soto more than lived up to expectations, batting .288 and marking his highest on-base percentage since 2021 at .419.
He improved his slash line to .327/.469/.633 through 14 postseason games to help the Yankees reach the World Series, where he played a key role in the club's Game 4 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Soto has already met with the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox in free agency, per Feinsand.
According to Feinsand, the Dodgers have also scheduled talks with Soto, while the San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays could also set up a meeting.
Soto, who just turned 26, has said he hopes to sign his next contract with a winning team (h/t MLB.com's Bryan Hoch.) That could make both the Yankees and Mets, two of the final four teams left in this year's run to the World Series, potential contenders to sign him— but it sounds like league executives are expecting Soto to stay in the Bronx rather than move to Queens.
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