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College Football Playoff Projections: Week 13 Rankings and Bowl Forecast

David Kenyon

The most important game in the history of Indiana football is set to command the spotlight in Week 13.

But as the Hoosiers prepare for a showdown at Ohio State—where the result has enormous implications in the Big Ten and College Football Playoff races—a conundrum is starting to build for bowl season.

Will there be enough slots for eligible teams?

After several key upsets, that answer is trending toward a surplus of available programs. Exactly 82 schools will play in a bowl, and 64 already have six wins. However, 24 more teams sit at five victories—and only one of those programs has a single game remaining.

It appears there will be hurt feelings to discuss when postseason invitations have been completed in 2024.

Week 13 CFP Rankings

Isaiah Bond Sam Hodde/Getty Images

1. Oregon

2. Ohio State

3. Texas

4. Penn State

5. Indiana

6. Notre Dame

7. Alabama

8. Miami

9. Ole Miss

10. Georgia

11. Tennessee

12. Boise State

13. SMU

14. BYU

15. Texas A&M

16. Colorado

17. Clemson

18. South Carolina

19. Army

20. Tulane

21. Arizona State

22. Iowa State

23. Missouri

24. UNLV

25. Illinois

Group of 5 Games

Jay Norvell AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post

Salute to Veterans Bowl (Dec. 14): Miami (Ohio) vs. Louisiana
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 17): North Texas vs. Connecticut
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18): Bowling Green vs. Marshall
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 19): Western Kentucky vs. James Madison
Cure Bowl (Dec. 20): South Florida vs. Georgia Southern
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 23): East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Buffalo vs. Colorado State
Hawai'i Bowl (Dec. 24): Liberty vs. Fresno State
68Ventures (Dec. 26): Western Michigan vs. Arkansas State
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 28): Jacksonville State vs. Texas State
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 28): Ohio vs. San Jose State
Bahamas Bowl (Jan. 4): Sam Houston vs. Northern Illinois

Trending Up: Colorado State Rams

Because of earlier losses to Texas, Colorado and Oregon State, don't go dreaming of a CFP trip. However, the Rams are inching ever-closer to making the Mountain West Championship Game with a 5-0 record in league play. Colorado State, which is 7-3 overall, heads to Fresno State in Week 13.

Trending Down: North Texas Mean Green

Remember that season-defining clash with Memphis in mid-October? That result has started a brutal slide for North Texas. Since then, the Mean Green have fallen to Tulane, Army and UTSA. They should still make a bowl, needing a single win over either East Carolina or Temple. But the excitement of a 5-1 start has faded quickly.

G5 vs. P4 Matchups

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LA Bowl (Dec. 18): UNLV vs. USC
GameAbove Sports Bowl (Dec. 26): Toledo vs. Michigan State
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 27): Tulane vs. West Virginia
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Military Bowl (Dec. 28): Navy vs. Duke
Independence Bowl (Dec. 28): Army vs. Cal

Trending Up: Tulane Green Wave

For good reason, Army has commanded the spotlight. We legitimately could see a service academy in the College Football Playoff, and that's pretty wild! But after stomping Navy for a third straight win of 31-plus points, 9-2 Tulane continues to look like the class of the American. We'll find out if that's true when Tulane plays Army in the AAC Championship Game, a title matchup that is officially set.

Trending Down: Michigan State Spartans

If this was bracketology, you'd see Michigan State as part of the "last four in" section. It's no surprise the 4-6 Spartans must assemble a late-November charge to attain bowl eligibility, given how difficult the schedule has been. The good news is MSU plays at home to close the campaign, but there's no margin for error with Purdue and Rutgers on the slate.

Power 4 Bowls, Part 1

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Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20): Florida vs. Boston College
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26): Nebraska vs. TCU
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27): North Carolina vs. Rutgers
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 27): Baylor vs. Vanderbilt
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27): Clemson vs. Colorado
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27): Arizona State vs. Texas A&M
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28): Pitt vs. Michigan
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28): Syracuse vs. Iowa State
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28): Kansas State vs. Washington State

Trending Up: Florida Gators

From a long-term perspective, the Gators might not be trending up. Can the program truly become a contender with Billy Napier at the helm? But what looked like a completely lost season has instead become just a disappointing year—probably. Florida beat LSU and moved to the brink of bowl eligibility at 5-5. I wouldn't expect an upset of Ole Miss, but the Gators have a great chance for a sixth win at rival Florida State (1-9) in two weeks.

Trending Down: Kansas State Wildcats

The only thing, at this moment, preventing Kansas State from tumbling in the Big 12 bowl conversation is conference realignment. Colorado and Arizona State have jumped ahead of K-State in the pecking order, but CU and ASU are tied to previous Pac-12 bowl agreements in 2024. Kansas State isn't officially out of the Big 12 race, but it'd take a miracle for the Wildcats to win a (very complicated) tiebreaker.

Power 4 Bowls, Part 2

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Music City Bowl (Dec. 30): Wisconsin vs. Missouri
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Iowa vs. South Carolina
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31): Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Illinois vs. Tennessee
Texas Bowl (Dec. 31): Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
Gator Bowl (Jan. 2): SMU vs. LSU
First Responder (Jan. 3): North Carolina State vs. Cincinnati
Mayo Bowl (Jan. 3): Louisville vs. Minnesota

Trending Up: South Carolina Gamecocks

While the best way to gauge a ranked matchup is the final season rankings—look at Florida State, for example—South Carolina has played six then-Top 25 teams in 2024. And in those contests, the Gamecocks are 4-2. It's been an impressive year for 7-3 South Carolina, which has toppled Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Missouri in consecutive weeks.

Trending Down: Cincinnati Bearcats

The "danger zone" team of the week, Cincinnati has dropped three straight games and fallen to 5-5. To close the season, the Bearcats play at Kansas State and host TCU. Realistically, both could be wins! Both, similarly, might be losses. Will they scratch out a sixth victory?

College Football Playoff

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First-Round Byes

The five highest-ranked conference champions (*) will automatically earn a CFP berth, and the four highest-ranked of that group will be placed in the quarterfinals. While this quartet is assumed to be from the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC), that's not guaranteed.

No. 1: Oregon*, Big Ten champion in Rose Bowl
No. 2 Texas*, SEC champion in Sugar Bowl
No. 3: Miami*, ACC champion in Peach Bowl
No. 4: Boise State*, MWC champion in Fiesta Bowl

First-Round Games

No. 12 BYU* (Big 12 champion) at No. 5 Ohio State (winner to Fiesta Bowl)
No. 11 Georgia at No. 6 Notre Dame (winner to Peach Bowl)
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Penn State (winner to Sugar Bowl)
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Alabama (winner to Rose Bowl)

Trending Up: Boise State Broncos

Boise State is a massive Notre Dame fan in Week 13. As long as ND defeats Army, there's no way the Broncos could fall out of Playoff position if they keep winning. They'd be a lock as one of the five highest-ranked champions. But now, thanks to Kansas upsetting BYU, the Broncos have a serious shot at earning a first-round CFP bye, too.

Game to Watch: Indiana at Ohio State

If Indiana wins, it's going to the Big Ten Championship Game against Oregon. If Ohio State does, the Buckeyes will be a victory over rival Michigan from finally returning to Indianapolis. Beyond that, the winner of this showdown will, at worst, realistically guarantee itself a spot in the Playoff.

   

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