There are times when it feels like you will never win another bet. The backbreaking fumbles, the missed extra points and the strange and unusual coaching decisions all seem to pile up at once.
If you've wagered on sports for any prolonged feeling of time, you know these emotions. You dread these emotions. You also know, no matter how bad or weird things get, eventually things will normalize.
The same can be said about a hot streak. And, at long last, we have found one.
In Week 12, we finished a cool 6-3 against the spread, and we're 19-8 over the past three weeks. For the year, after so many average weeks, we're now 57-52.
The overall record could still use some improvement, which means we'd be thrilled if this streak makes it a full month or more. Regardless, we'll take nothing for granted. It's never easy.
Before we get to our Week 13 picks, here's what went right and wrong from the previous week.
The Good: Kansas (+3) vs. BYU: This spread seemed awfully fishy, and the outcome ultimately showcased that was indeed the case. Kansas won outright, and it can disrupt the Big 12 further this week.
The Bad: Cal (-8.5) vs. Syracuse: We didn't have a ton of misses, but this was a big miss. Cal fell behind early, and this bet felt dead before halftime. Ugly bet.
With that complete, let's stay hot.
For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.
Auburn (+2.5) vs. Texas A&M
Do I feel good about betting on Auburn?
To be perfectly honest, no.
This team has cost me money all season long—against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt and others. Hugh Freeze has delivered one of the more disappointing seasons in all of college football, regardless of how free and easy last weekend's win was.
But this game speaks to me. This spread speaks to me. The masses will line up to bet Texas A&M, and perhaps they will be wise in doing so. Often, however, they are not.
The constant for Auburn is a defense that currently ranks No. 18 in scoring. The offense, meanwhile, has had its issues. That's putting it mildly.
Still, playing at Auburn can be tricky, especially for a young quarterback, which Texas A&M has. The Aggies are better and have been better all year. But with a rivalry game against Texas looming, this is a dangerous spot.
Mississippi State (+8) vs. Missouri
From one forgettable SEC season to another, Mississippi State has entered the chat. The Bulldogs have two wins, and they came against Eastern Kentucky and UMass.
Unfortunately, that's it.
There have, however, been moments. Mississippi State played tight games against Georgia and Texas A&M. They have also had some, well, challenging weeks.
In reality, this isn't a bet for Mississippi State. It's a bet against Missouri.
We did that last week, and it wasn't a wise decision. The Tigers played a tough game at South Carolina, covering the double-digit spread on the road. While they ultimately kept the score inside the number, they couldn't pull off the upset.
Which leads us to this very sleepy road game. Missouri's playoff aspirations are officially gone, which means a letdown could be in order.
The Tigers win, although it won't come easy.
Missouri 27, Mississippi State 24.
Ohio State (-13) vs. Indiana
In many ways, I hope this is wrong.
Indiana has enjoyed a magical football season—the kind of year most diligent movie reviewers would deny as feasible. Amid upsets and losses, the constant has been the Hoosiers.
The emotions are real, as is this undefeated stretch. But let's be perfectly honest about this team while also being respectful to what has been done.
Indiana currently has one win over a team with a winning record. That team, Washington, is 6-5. The Hoosiers also have wins over Nebraska, Michigan, UCLA, Michigan State and others.
They're not beating up on MAC teams. They are, however, taking advantage of an advantageous path.
That changes this week with Ohio State. The Buckeyes might have more talent than any team nationally and playing in Columbus will be a chore. Although it's a robust spread for two teams currently inside the top five, it feels appropriately robust.
Ohio State can make a statement to close out the season, and it starts with one of the best stories in the sport.
Kansas (+2.5) vs. Colorado
In terms of pure fun, this feels like a football game that will be overflowing with it.
Colorado is one of the nation's hottest teams, and the Buffaloes have closed the gap on a potential College Football Playoff berth. Kansas, after a brutal start, has earned back-to-back wins against Iowa State and BYU, the darlings of the Big 12 early on.
After a flurry of ugly, close losses, KU has found itself. And after disrupting the conference standings the last two weeks, the Jayhawks are positioned to do it again.
Colorado, behind football unicorn Travis Hunter and QB Shedeur Sanders, is good. This is no fluke whatsoever. This team has talent, and Deion Sanders has put it neatly together.
But Kansas is one of the hottest teams in college football, and it has won with a mix of offense and defense. Offense is likely to be plentiful this week for both parties, although KU will produce a little more of it.
Oklahoma State (+3.5) vs. Texas Tech
Let's start with an admission.
Oklahoma State was my pick to win the Big 12. The Pokes have responded with a 3-7 mark, somewhat quietly evolving into one of 2024's most disappointing squads. Despite having one of the best running backs in football—along with experience all over the field—it hasn't quite come together.
This week, it has a chance to. A season of miscues and losses won't suddenly come undone, although this feels like the team and time for OK State to deliver. More specifically, this feels like the time to end a seven-game losing streak.
Texas Tech hasn't exactly been thriving. The Red Raiders have lost three of four, which included a 59-35 loss to Baylor. Woof.
A total in the high 60s suggests this game will feature plenty of points. No arguments here. Although for the first time in a long time, OK State will outscore an opponent.
Pokes cover (and win).
Other Games on the Card
Old Dominion (-2) vs. Marshall
Why do we bet on all Old Dominion games, you ask? That's a fair question. While that is not intended, it does seem to work out that way. This team is better than its record shows, and that will (finally) become evident.
LSU (-7.5) vs. Vanderbilt
To say it has been rough for Brian Kelly of late would be an understatement. With that acknowledged, this is still a tough place to play, and the oddsmakers still have faith with the Tigers. As a result, so do I.
Fresno State (-3) vs. Colorado State
For as good as Colorado State has played of late, it's fascinating to see the Rams as a small underdog. Fresno State might be .500, although the team, despite its underperformance of late, still has talent.
Rutgers (+1) vs. Illinois
There are more interesting matchups in the Big Ten this week, although this is a meaningful game between two teams trying to close out solid seasons. I like Rutgers at home to take down the recently-ranked Illini.
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