A little over two weeks ago, 13 MLB free agents were extended a qualifying, one-year, $21.05 million offer, and they had until 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday to decide whether or not to accept it.

Not surprisingly, the vast majority of those players declined the offer and are now free to sign with the highest bidder. Nick Martinez was the lone exception, opting to return to the Cincinnati Reds for one more year.

For the declining dozen, if they sign with a new team, their former team will receive a compensatory draft pick in the 2025 MLB draft. Where exactly that pick falls depends upon whether the team contributes to or benefits from revenue sharing and the total value of the player's new contract.

Moreover, when a team signs a new player who rejects a qualifying offer, they stand to lose one or more draft picks and possibly some international bonus pool money. Which picks they lose and whether they lose money again depend on whether they pay a competitive balance tax and how many of these qualifying offer players they sign.

If you're curious about that portion of this system, MLB.com's glossary entry on qualifying offers explains it all better and more thoroughly.

What's more interesting now is figuring out where (and for how much) these players will sign in the coming weeks and months.

We'll go through the list of 12 players who rejected the $21.05 million with our guesses.

Willy Adames, SS

2024 Stats: .251/.331/.462, 32 HR, 112 RBI, 21 SB, 3.1 bWAR

Contract Prediction: 7 years, $189 million to the Los Angeles Dodgers

It hasn't even been a full week since I wrote our Willy Adames Top 10 Landing Spots article, so if you want a deeper dive into which teams make the most sense for the best shortstop on the market, there you go.

The TL;DR version, however, is that it sure seems like he's destined for the NL West, either with the Dodgers or the Giants.

L.A.'s interest level is indirectly proportional to how serious it is about reconverting Mookie Betts to the middle infield.

If the Dodgers are legitimately all-in on making the 32-year-old, six-time Gold Glove-winning right fielder their primary shortstop in 2025, then, no, they won't be bidding much on Adames.

However, bringing in the former Brewer would allow them to keep Betts in the outfield, where they are already trying to figure out how to replace/re-sign Teoscar Hernández and where they would need multiple solutions if they move Betts.

If the Dodgers are on the fence in any way, though, the Giants could pounce. They've already said they want to bring in a shortstop this offseason, and goodness knows they are overdue for landing a big fish in free agency.

My gut says the Dodgers make it happen, but the Giants wouldn't be surprising in the least.

Pete Alonso, 1B

2024 Stats: .240/.329/.459, 34 HR, 88 RBI, 2.6 bWAR

Contract Prediction: 8 years, $226 million to the New York team (Mets) that doesn't sign Juan Soto

Admittedly, we're getting a little cute with the $226 million projection, as that would match the number of home runs Pete Alonso has hit thus far in his New York Mets career.

It's not a ridiculous number for him to aim for, though.

The Polar Bear doesn't turn 30 for another couple of weeks, so another eight productive seasons is well within reason for what has been nearly the most injury-averse player in the majors. [Only Marcus Semien (859) has appeared in more games than Alonso (846) since his arrival in 2019.] And $28.25 million annually for the best slugger not named Aaron Judge is a bit of a bargain these days—certainly compared to what Juan Soto will get.

There are plenty of teams who need a first baseman this winter, but only a few could afford him.

Two of the three best candidates appear to be the same two most legitimately in on Soto. If Soto stays with the Yankees, it's likely Alonso also stays with the Mets. But if Steve Cohen wins the bidding war for Soto, Alonso becoming the first baseman for the Bronx Bombers makes a lot of sense.

The wild card might be the San Francisco Giants. Most sluggers want nothing to do with Oracle Park, but did you know Alonso has averaged one home run for every 10.7 plate appearances there in his career? It's not a huge sample size of 17 games, but it's a reminder that his power plays at any venue.

Alex Bregman, 3B

2024 Stats: .260/.315/.453, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 4.1 bWAR

Contract Prediction: 6 years, $162 million to the Detroit Tigers

Spotrac says four years, $120 million for Alex Bregman, but that feels way too short, right?

Manny Machado got an 11-year extension a few months before turning 31. Austin Riley and Rafael Devers both got decade-long deals that will last through their age-36 seasons. And 31-year-old Matt Chapman just signed a six-year extension that won't expire until a few months after he turns 37.

Bregman, who turns 31 right around Opening Day, ought to be able to get at least a six-year deal.

The tricky part for his market is that most of the teams definitely looking for a third baseman are smaller-market teams.

Tim Kelly of B/R ranked Bregman's landing spots a month ago, with the Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals among the top four, along with the most likely outcome of him staying with Houston.

Even the Astros are pretty cash-strapped these days, though, thanks in no small part to still owing eight-figure salaries to five guys who might not/definitely appear in a game for them in 2025: Rafael Montero (retained), Jose Abreu (retained), Zack Greinke (deferred), Lance McCullers Jr. (injured) and Cristian Javier (injured).

That's why I like the Tigers for Bregman, even though they, arguably, should be focused almost entirely on improving their starting rotation.

The question there is Jace Jung, who they took 12th overall in the 2022 draft but has already made it to the bigs. If the Tigers think he and Colt Keith can hold down the fort at 2B and 3B for the foreseeable future, maybe they won't bother with Bregman.

However, between the veteran leadership Bregman could provide this young team and his history with Detroit manager A.J. Hinch, it could be a great match.

Corbin Burnes, RHP

2024 Stats: 194.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 3.4 bWAR

Contract Prediction: 5 years, $170 million to the New York Mets

Even though Corbin Burnes' strikeout rate dropped for the fourth consecutive year, the 2021 NL Cy Young winner posted a sub-3.00 ERA for the fourth time in the past half-decade—and ended his (only?) season with the Orioles with an eight-inning gem in the postseason.

We'll find out the final Cy Young vote tallies sometime on Wednesday. Still, it's hardly a leap of faith to declare this was Burnes' fifth consecutive season finishing top-eight in the Cy Young vote, likely in third place behind Tarik Skubal and Emmanuel Clase.

He just turned 30 a month ago, meaning there should be plenty of quality years left in the tank.

Long story short, there's a reason this ace is likely going to fetch the second-highest AAV in free agency this year, behind only Soto.

As mentioned with Alonso, the Mets' ability/willingness to get a deal done for Burnes hinges at least partially on whether they get Soto.

They could get both, and it's infinitely more likely they get both Soto and Burnes than both Soto and Alonso, simply because they need to put in some work on their starting rotation this winter.

If Soto signs elsewhere while Burnes is still available, though, how many nanoseconds do they wait before calling Scott Boras and increasing their offer for the latter?

Max Fried, LHP

2024 Stats: 174.1 IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 3.5 bWAR

Contract Prediction: 6 years, $165 million to the Boston Red Sox

Max Fried has developed a bit of an injury-prone label, but that's unduly harsh, no?

Dating back to 2019, he ranks 20th in the majors with 142 games started, as well as 20th in innings pitched at 824.2. And we're just talking the regular season there. He also pitched in the postseason in the past seven years, putting in another 67 innings of work in October.

Aside from a fluke hamstring injury in his first start of 2023 and a forearm strain that sidelined him for three months later that season, Fried has been mostly healthy, logging enough innings to qualify for the ERA title in four of the past six seasons.

So, it's not likely the 30-year-old and his 2.81 ERA since the beginning of 2020 will have any problem getting a five- or six-year deal this winter—especially after Carlos Rodón was able to get six years with his extensive injury history.

And after trading their lone left-handed starter to Atlanta last winter before watching Chris Sale suddenly turn back into a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, the Boston Red Sox are probably hungry to sign another southpaw.

Getting Fried as their ace while Lucas Giolito hopefully returns at a No. 2 or No. 3 starter level could be a two-pronged game-changer for a club that has been sputtering around .500 for three years running.

Teoscar Hernández, LF/RF

2024 Stats: .272/.339/.501, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 12 SB, 4.3 bWAR

Contract Prediction: 4 years, $90 million to the Los Angeles Dodgers

Will the Dodgers actually sign both Willy Adames and Teoscar Hernández in their pursuit of back-to-back titles?

Maybe not.

But in this salary cap-less world where three of this past season's four semifinalists are all going to make an exorbitant luxury-tax payment about a month from now, there's not a whole lot stopping them if they want to put those final touches on what would be a preposterous lineup from top to bottom.

[I mean, seriously, what would the bottom third of that lineup be if they sign both? Max Muncy/Will Smith, NLCS MVP Tommy Edman and Gavin Lux? Must be nice to have that option.]

At any rate, there were reports on Monday that the Dodgers met with/will meet with Juan Soto, so they clearly have quite a large rainy-day fund saved up.

Now, it may well be that they would find a way to pay Soto if they manage to acquire him rather than actively looking to spend a few hundred million dollars.

However, it's at least possible they land both Hernández and Adames and perhaps probable they would prioritize re-signing the outfielder over acquiring the shortstop.

Hernández fit in well with them in 2024, setting a career high in home runs and racking up more hits, home runs and RBI than all Dodgers not named Shohei Ohtani.

Sean Manaea, LHP

2024 Stats: 181.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 3.0 bWAR

Contract Prediction: 4 years, $72 million to the Los Angeles Angels

Have we considered the possibility Sean Manaea just enjoys being pursued in free agency?

After playing his final season with San Diego, he signed a two-year, $25 million deal with San Francisco, with the option to opt out of the second year. He did and signed a similar 1+1 deal with the Mets for $28 million last winter before opting out again.

Will the southpaw who turns 33 before the start of next season finally find the type of big-time offer he has been looking for?

Considering he posted a 4.96 ERA in his first contract year and a 4.44 ERA while losing his job in the starting rotation in his second contract year, he's certainly better positioned for a mega contract than he used to be.

Manaea went from "not good enough to start for the Giants" to the surprising Mets ace, including an impressive first three starts in the postseason before a rough final go against the Dodgers in the NLCS.

He's a far cry from the likes of Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell atop this year's list of free-agent pitchers, and he may well settle for an AAV a couple of million bucks below the one-year offer he just declined. But he should be able to get a four-year deal with a total value triple what he rejected.

At a $15M-$16 million AAV price point, Manaea could make sense for a contender like Baltimore or Detroit. But going all-in on a guy in his mid-30s who just had the best season of his career feels like an Angels thing to do.

And they've already been pretty aggressively in denial this winter, adding all of Jorge Soler, Kyle Hendricks, Travis d'Arnaud, Kevin Newman and Scott Kingery.

Nick Pivetta, RHP

2024 Stats: 145.2 IP, 4.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 1.8 bWAR

Contract Prediction: 2 years, $28 million with the Washington Nationals

Nick Pivetta receiving a qualifying offer from the Boston Red Sox was surprising.

His decision to decline it was even more of a head-scratcher.

It's hard to see him getting a long-term deal or anything close to a $21 million salary, as he has never had a sub-4.00 ERA in his eight-year career and had a 4.20 FIP over the past four seasons combined.

Who knows, though?

Pivetta averaged at least 4.8 K/BB in 2024 and posted quality starts in 11 of his 26 starts—plus one "relief" appearance in which he went six innings and allowed two earned runs in the resumption of a game that is famous because Danny Jansen played catcher for both teams.

He could be for the Washington Nationals a slightly more established (and more than twice as expensive) version of the Trevor Williams signing they made two years ago.

The Nats are clearly in a position to do something this offseason, and adding a veteran arm to the rotation to replace Williams and Patrick Corbin should be at the top of their to-do list.

They might view themselves as close enough to contention to make a huge move like signing Max Fried. Or they might take more of a half-measure by bringing in Pivetta to serve as their No. 2 starter behind MacKenzie Gore.

But they will be in the mix for at least one of these now-official free agents.

Anthony Santander, RF

2024 Stats: .235/.308/.506, 44 HR, 102 RBI, 2.9 bWAR

Contract Prediction: 5 years, $90 million to the Kansas City Royals

Aaron Judge. Shohei Ohtani. Juan Soto. Anthony Santander.

The soon-to-be AL MVP. The soon-to-be NL MVP. The soon-to-be possibly $600 million man. And an Orioles outfielder named an All-Star for the first time this season.

Those are the four players who hit at least 40 home runs in 2024.

To be clear, Santander didn't come out of nowhere. From 2019-23, he slugged .468 and hit 110 home runs despite only playing 545 games. During that same window, Willy Adames hit 108 home runs in 634 games, while Alex Bregman landed 107 home runs in 605 games.

Santander definitely upped the ante in 2024, though, and he might sniff a nine-figure deal after that fantastic walk year, similar to Nick Castellanos getting a five-year, $100 million contract three years ago.

A bunch of different teams make sense for this free-agent slugger.

The Dodgers are probably No. 1 on the list if they don't sign Adames and/or Teoscar Hernández. But we've already projected those, so let's look elsewhere.

Kansas City makes a lot of sense and may have already made it clear to Santander that he is its No. 1 priority. That could pay dividends for the Royals, whose entire OF/DH situation this past season was astoundingly bad for an 86-win playoff team.

Luis Severino, RHP

2024 Stats: 182.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 1.6 bWAR

Contract Prediction: 3 years, $48 million to the New York Mets

While it wasn't exactly a vintage year from Luis Severino, it was quite the bounce-back campaign—one that might have been worthy of the NL Comeback Player of the Year award were it not for Chris Sale being the blatantly obvious choice there.

Not only was Severino substantially better in his first season with the Mets than in his final one with the Yankees, but he was also healthy for once, logging almost as many innings as he had in the previous five seasons combined (209.1).

Because of that injury history, a fully guaranteed even remotely long-term deal might be a stretch here. Of all the players who declined their qualifying offer, the 30-year-old is by far the most likely to get a contract with incentives dependent upon number of games played/innings pitched.

A return to the Mets makes a lot of sense, though, as they need to add multiple starting pitchers this winter.

Severino is the third player on this list that we've tied to the Mets, which is no accident. If they're unable to lure Soto from the Yankees, they're likely going to take something of a shotgun approach to the next tier of free agents, potentially still spending almost as much as they were hoping to give to Soto.

And while other teams might balk at Severino's injury history, the Mets know better than anyone about his medical records and what he can do on the mound.

Juan Soto, RF

2024 Stats: .288/.419/.569, 41 HR, 109 RBI, 7.9 bWAR

Contract Prediction: 13 years, $569 million to the New York Yankees

If we've got Pete Alonso re-signing with the Mets at a price point of $1 million for every home run he has hit with them thus far, how about Juan Soto staying with the Yankees at $1 million per slugging percentage point this past season?

Projections for Soto's contract have gotten downright ridiculous over the past few months, with some suggesting he could fetch north of $700 million, even without any of the deferrals that made Shohei Ohtani's deal with the Dodgers possible.

However, most rational, non-clickbaity folks with sources have suggested something in the $41-$44 million AAV for more than 10 but less than 15 years. And, well, $43.77 million annually for 13 years could work there.

Whether it's $500 million, $600 million or actually $700 million, though, the moral of the story is that young Mr. Soto is about to become quite rich.

And regardless of recent reports of him being "impressed" by a "productive" three-hour meeting with the Red Sox or Héctor Gómez of Z101 reporting that the Mets have offered $660 million for his services—later followed by Jon Heyman of The New York Post saying no actual offers have been made—it still feels somewhat inevitable he's going to stay with the Yankees.

Soto didn't even capitalize on the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium that was basically built for him, actually slugging better on the road (.580) in 2024 than he did at home (.559). But it's hard to believe he would leave what was clearly a wonderful situation hitting in front of Aaron Judge—unless the Yankees just egregiously lowball him.

Christian Walker, 1B

2024 Stats: .251/.335/.468, 26 HR, 84 RBI, 2.6 bWAR

Contract Prediction: 3 years, $63 million to the Pittsburgh Pirates

Did you know the Pittsburgh Pirates have never spent more than $17 million on a newly acquired free agent?

We're not even talking about a $17 million salary—a grand total of $17 million on a player's contract.

They did re-sign Francisco Liriano to a three-year, $39 million deal in 2015 and Ivan Nova to a three-year, $26 million deal in 2017. However, the most they've spent to bring in a new player was when they signed Russell Martin to a two-year, $17 million contract in 2013.

So, we're taking a pretty giant leap of faith here to project Pittsburgh making a $63 million investment in a first baseman who will turn 34 the day after their first game of the season.

But if not now, when?

And if not Walker, who?

The Pirates just finished a season in which either Rowdy Tellez (105 games) or Connor Joe (49) started at first base for more than 95 percent of their games. At best, it was replacement-level production on both offense and defense, and it's one of the biggest reasons they weren't any better in 2024 than they were in 2023 despite adding NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes.

Signing the three-time reigning Gold Glove native of Pennsylvania could be a game-changer for a team trying to end a nine-year postseason drought.