Willy Adames is finally hitting free agency after six years of quietly being one of Major League Baseball's more valuable position players.
He spent those six seasons between the small-market Tampa Bay Rays and the smaller-market Milwaukee Brewers, but FanGraphs credits Adames with 20.1 WAR during that window. That's good for 30th-best among hitters, putting him slightly behind Matt Olson and Paul Goldschmidt and a few wins ahead of Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Better yet, Adames is hitting free agency fresh off a season in which he set career-best marks in hits (153), runs (93), doubles (33), home runs (32), RBI (112) and stolen bases (21). He's also open to a position change "if he gets a strong offer from a team in position to win," according to Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic.
Adames is on a short list of marquee shortstops up for grabs this winter. If he's willing to shift from shortstop to second or third base, that should only increase the number of teams willing to hand him a nine-figure contract.
How much does Adames figure to go for? Which teams realistically could make it happen?
We've ranked the top 10 landing spots for Adames, who seems likely to remain in the National League.
What Will Adames Be Worth in Free Agency?
In his final year of arbitration eligibility, Adames made $12.25 million in 2024. Inking the slugging shortstop to a long-term deal will likely require more than double that annually.
Adames turned 29 in September and has averaged 31 home runs and 100 RBI on a per-162-games basis over the past four seasons. Spotrac calculates his market value at six years and $152.2 million ($25.4 million AAV), using Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Javier Báez as the relevant comps.
Considering the positional scarcity, it wouldn't be surprising if Adames eclipses a $30 million annual salary on his new deal.
Ha-Seong Kim is the only other particularly intriguing shortstop in this year's free-agent class. While Kim's glove is quite valuable, he's nowhere near the middle-of-the-lineup force that Adames is.
It only gets bleaker from there. Kiké Hernández, Paul DeJong and Amed Rosario are arguably the cream of the non-Adames/Kim crop. None of them are guaranteed to get a multi-year deal.
Long story short, there could be a serious bidding war for Adames, who has perhaps played his final days in a small market.
Nos. 10-6: Brewers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Nationals and Mariners
10. Milwaukee Brewers
Current SS/2B/3B: Joey Ortiz, Brice Turang, Oliver Dunn
Say this much for the Brewers: No team has a greater need for a shortstop than the one losing Adames. And while they have long been strapped for cash, they did find the funds to give Christian Yelich a seven-year, $188.5 million deal back in 2020. Maybe they can do it again?
Probably not, though. They'll be happy to at least get a compensatory draft pick when he signs elsewhere.
9. Toronto Blue Jays
Current SS/2B/3B: Bo Bichette, Will Wagner, Ernie Clement
The Blue Jays are the ultimate wild card this offseason. They're reportedly trying to sign Juan Soto. They're also presumably trying to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and/or Bo Bichette before they enter their final season of arbitration eligibility. And if they're not convinced that they can/should re-up with Bichette, they could swing big for Adames and then put Bichette on the trade block to really shake things up.
If they're drawing up a $150-plus million deal for a shortstop, though, one would imagine it'll be to lock up Bichette through at least 2030.
8. Boston Red Sox
Current SS/2B/3B: Trevor Story, Rafael Devers, David Hamilton/Vaughn Grissom
Boston keeps popping up as a possible suitor for Adames, but it doesn't make much sense. Not only should the Red Sox be focused on upgrading their starting rotation, but they still have Trevor Story signed for three more not-cheap years. Plus, Marcelo Mayer has to be coming eventually, right?
7. Washington Nationals
Current SS/2B/3B: CJ Abrams, Luis García Jr., Brady House/José Tena
Could the Nationals convert CJ Abrams to a first baseman? Or maybe move the 6'7" James Wood to first base and Abrams to corner outfield? Because keeping Abrams' bat (20 HR) and speed (31 SB) in the lineup is a must, but his defense at shortstop is a problem.
While they still have a few more years of paying off both Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, the Nats have more than enough room in their budget to make an Adames-sized splash. If they're spending, though, it's probably for an ace or an actual first baseman.
6. Seattle Mariners
Current SS/2B/3B: J.P. Crawford, Dylan Moore, Josh Rojas
Seattle should do something about its offense, and it should happen somewhere in the infield. But can the M's make an investment this hefty? Their projected payroll is already in the vicinity of $150 million, and they've never had an Opening Day payroll north of $158 million.
A short-term, nowhere-near-$25-million-per-year investment in Gleyber Torres is more likely to fit the Mariners' M.O. But maybe they'll invest more than $25 million total on a free-agent hitter for the first time since signing Nelson Cruz almost exactly one decade ago.
5. New York Yankees
Current Projected Infield: 1B Ben Rice, 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., 3B Oswaldo Cabrera, SS Anthony Volpe; DJ LeMahieu and Oswald Peraza as reserves
One of the two "if Adames is willing to change positions" teams in our top five, the Yankees do need a fair amount of infield help. They just don't need it at shortstop, where Anthony Volpe won a Gold Glove in 2023 and arguably should've won it again in 2024.
However, put Adames at second and Jazz Chisholm Jr. back at third (or vice versa), and that's a much better looking infield.
The possibly $600 million fly in the ointment is New York's quest to re-sign Juan Soto.
Even without Soto, the Yankees are already pushing right up against the luxury tax line for next season. Just in Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman and DJ LeMahieu, they're looking at almost $170 million. Add Soto and Adames to that mix, and they're right at that $241 million cutline with 18 other salaries to be included.
On the one hand, it's the Yankees. This is one of three franchises that has no qualms about waving two middle fingers at the concept of a league-imposing spending "threshold." For them, a $100 million tax bill is a small price to pay to end their 15-year World Series drought.
They do have other issues to address, though, namely at first base and the bullpen. While they might be willing to embrace a $300 million Opening Day payroll, that's about where they would be with Soto and Adames before adding a single reliever and with a Ben Rice/DJ LeMahieu platoon at first base.
So, no, it's not likely they'll give Adames $150-175 million this winter unless they lose Soto, fail to sign Pete Alonso and are left grasping at straws.
4. New York Mets
Current Projected Infield: 1B Mark Vientos, 2B Jeff McNeil, 3B Brett Baty, SS Francisco Lindor; Luisangel Acuña and possibly Ronny Mauricio as reserves
Shortstop is just about the only thing the Mets won't be looking to upgrade/re-sign this offseason. However, if Adames is seriously willing to shift to a different spot in the infield, the Mets have the funds to make him happy at second/third base.
The big question is whether the Mets would make Adames a priority amid trying to land Juan Soto, trying to re-sign Pete Alonso and putting in work on their starting rotation. The top three teams on this list may well have Adames at No. 1 on their wish list.
So, is he in any sort of rush to get his deal done? Or is it possible that he'll be one of the last marquee names off the board?
If he signs before Soto does, it's hard to imagine the Mets are going to make him the most lucrative offer. But if he's still available after Soto stays with the Yankees while the Mets only get one (or even none) of Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell, team owner Steve Cohen might throw a ridiculous number at Adames to keep what they were hoping would be a monster offseason from being a colossal bust.
It sure would be a phenomenal middle infield if they can make it happen, though. Adames at second and Francisco Lindor at short would rival Texas' Marcus Semien and Corey Seager for the best in the business.
3. Atlanta Braves
Current Projected Infield: 1B Matt Olson, 2B Ozzie Albies, 3B Austin Riley, SS Orlando Arcia; Nick Allen and Luke Williams as reserves
Breaking the bank for free agents has never been the Atlanta way.
They extend young stars while they're affordable. They make shrewd trades. But they've never spent more than $75 million on a free agent, and they woefully regretted it when they did make that kind of a rare external investment in B.J. Upton a dozen years ago.
They need to do something about their shortstop situation, though. This past season, Orlando Arcia posted MLB's second-worst OPS+ (73) among qualified hitters.
Arcia was also the clear weak link in the lineup in 2023, but he was at least serviceable when he had a .321 OBP. He was part of a juggernaut that led the majors in homers, which made it easier to overlook one replacement-level hitter in the fold.
With just about the entire offense (save for Marcell Ozuna) taking a big step backward this past season, though, Arcia's woeful .271 OBP stood out like a sore thumb as an area that needs to be addressed.
Given Atlanta's roster-building tendencies, they'll probably try to address it in the form of Ha-Seong Kim. They might be able to get him on something like a four-year, $50 million deal after the moderately disappointing season he had in San Diego.
But Adames has to be on the table for Atlanta now that they've had two years to regret not doing more to keep Dansby Swanson.
2. San Francisco Giants
Current Projected Infield: 1B LaMonte Wade Jr., 2B Marco Luciano, 3B Matt Chapman, SS Tyler Fitzgerald; Casey Schmitt, Wilmer Flores and Brett Wisely as reserves
Is this the year? After hopes and dreams of Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and others in recent winters, is this when the Giants finally hand out what would be the largest contract in franchise history?
As things currently stand, that record belongs to Buster Posey, who received a nine-year, $167 milllion extension the spring after receiving his 2012 NL MVP trophy. As far as free agents go, San Francisco's face-value record was $130 million for Johnny Cueto. Accounting for inflation and such, the $126 million signing of Barry Zito from a decade prior to Cueto is typically regarded as the biggest swing (and miss) they ever took.
Coincidentally, it'll be up to Posey to try to break his own record. At the GM meetings earlier this month, he said: "If we could find a shortstop, that'd be great."
Rookie Tyler Fitzgerald was rock-solid in an everyday role at short over the latter half of last season, but he's also quite versatile. Sliding him to second base (and probably Marco Luciano to left field) to accommodate an Adames addition would be no problem.
However, as with every slugger considering the Giants, there is the issue of Oracle Park, where home runs go to die.
Per Baseball Savant's rolling three-year average of park factors, Adames going from Milwaukee to San Francisco would be quite the transition. He'd go from playing half of his games in the sixth-friendliest venue for home runs to the 30th-friendliest—aka the pitcher-friendliest—ballpark in the majors.
He does have a career .321 batting average in 16 games played at Oracle Park, though, as well as two home runs. Maybe there wouldn't be a marked decline in offensive production.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Current Projected Infield: 1B Freddie Freeman, 2B Gavin Lux, 3B Max Muncy, SS Miguel Rojas; Chris Taylor, Tommy Edman and Mookie Betts as reserves
At the GM meetings earlier this month, perhaps the biggest revelation of all was that the Dodgers are planning on moving Mookie Betts back to middle-infield duties.
With Teoscar Hernández now a free agent, the Dodgers are surely going to add at least one bat this winter—probably one of the best available, albeit not likely Juan Soto. If that move is re-acquiring Hernández or perhaps signing Anthony Santander to play in the outfield, that's when it could make sense to slide Betts back into the infield.
If they're able to sign Adames, though, problem solved. They can keep their six-time Gold Glove winner in right field where he belongs, as well as cement Tommy Edman as the full-time center fielder instead of shuffling him between SS/2B/CF again.
The only question is whether they have the money to make it happen, which isn't even a question.
The Dodgers' current projected tax payroll for 2025 is $272 million. That's $31 million above the luxury tax threshold for 2025, but it's more notably about $68 million less than they spent this past season—without including the expected impending tax payment of around $90 million. So, if they want Adames, they can go get him.
There's a bonus incentive of screwing over a rival, too. San Francisco has already made it clear that upgrading at shortstop is one of its biggest priorities this offseason. Outbidding the Giants for Adames would make it much harder for them to achieve that goal.
They say you can't buy happiness, but that laugh might be worth a few extra million bucks to the Dodgers ownership.
Read 0 Comments
Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation