Bleacher Report

College Football Playoffs 2024-25: Week 12 Clinch and Bracket Elimination Scenarios

Jake Rill

The second edition of this season's College Football Playoff rankings were released Tuesday night, and both Georgia and Miami moved down considerably, as expected after losses. However, one's slide was much more impactful than the other's.

The Bulldogs, who lost at Ole Miss, went from No. 3 to No. 12. They're also no longer projected to make the 12-team CFP field, a product of being in the highly competitive SEC.

The Hurricanes lost at Georgia Tech, then fell from No. 4 to No. 9. But they're still in a decent position to potentially make the CFP, as they still have a good chance to win the ACC title.

Texas capitalized on Georgia's misfortune, going from No. 5 to No. 3 in the rankings. After a win over Florida, the Longhorns have reemerged as the favorite to win the SEC championship in their first year in the conference.

Because there are three weeks to go in the regular season (followed by conference championship week), it's still much too early for any team to solidify a spot in the CFP field. However, some programs are facing must-win matchups on a weekly basis.

Here are potential elimination scenarios to watch for during the upcoming Week 12 action.

Georgia Must Bounce Back with Win over Tennessee

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Georgia is the only team that has defeated Texas this season. Yet, the Bulldogs are currently on the outside of the CFP bubble due to their two losses (at Alabama on Sept. 28 and at Ole Miss this past Saturday), so their margin for error has become quite small.

While a third loss won't officially eliminate Georgia from the Playoff picture, its resume would take another brutal hit. But a win for the Bulldogs this Saturday would put them back in the mix, especially because they're playing a projected CFP team in Tennessee.

The Vols are 8-1, with their lone loss coming at Arkansas on Oct. 5. They're on a four-game winning streak that featured an impressive victory over Alabama on Oct. 19, but they will face a tough test going on the road to take on Georgia.

Tennessee could better absorb a loss than Georgia, though. If the Bulldogs fall for a second straight week, then their Oct. 19 win over the Longhorns may go for naught.

A Loss for Texas A&M Would Make Path More Difficult

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Another SEC team currently on the outside of the CFP bubble is Texas A&M. However, the Aggies have only one conference loss, and they close out the regular season with a home matchup vs. Texas on Nov. 30. So they still control their own destiny with the ability to win out and potentially play for the SEC title.

With that being said, Texas A&M's odds of getting an at-large bid would take a serious hit if it loses a non-conference matchup against New Mexico State this Saturday. Texas A&M would slide down the CFP rankings and face more pressure to win its final two conference games against Auburn and Texas later this month.

The Aggies are coming off a bye, which they used to regroup after losing at South Carolina on Nov. 2. They should get back on track with a favorable matchup this week. If they don't, there will be cause for some concern.

SMU Needs to Keep Rolling in ACC Play

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The ACC still isn't getting much love in the CFP rankings, with Miami being the only team from the conference among the top 12. SMU sits at No. 14, though the Mustangs are 8-1 and 5-0 in ACC play. Their only loss came on Sept. 6 vs. BYU (the front-runner to win the Big 12).

At this point, it seems SMU's best path to reach the CFP is to win the ACC title. To get an at-large bid, the Mustangs may need help via teams ranked ahead of them losing.

A second loss for SMU, though, would make things more difficult. So the Mustangs need to keep rolling this Saturday, when they're set to host Boston College. They wrap up the regular season with a road matchup at Virginia on Nov. 23 and a home contest vs. Cal on Nov. 30.

   

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