The College Football Playoff (CFP) Championship trophy James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

How Teams Outside the Top 12 Can Get Into the 2025 College Football Playoff

Morgan Moriarty

The very first College Football Playoff rankings of 2024 were revealed on Tuesday evening. This year's expanded playoff will look quite different from years past, as the field will include 12 teams instead of four.

Here's a look at the CFP's initial top 12:

  1. Oregon 
  2. Ohio State
  3. Georgia 
  4. Miami
  5. Texas 
  6. Penn State
  7. Tennessee
  8. Indiana
  9. BYU
  10. Notre Dame
  11. Alabama
  12. Boise State

Although the rankings show otherwise, the CFP bracket has the top four seeds as No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Miami and No. 4 BYU. In the expanded CFP, the four highest-ranked conference champions will receive the top four seeds, which come with first-round byes.

But what about the teams outside of the top 12? Do any of them have a shot to make the field in December? Let's run through some teams currently on the outside looking in that have a chance to crash the party, including what needs to happen for them to do just that.

No. 25 Army: Finish Undefeated and Hope Boise State Stumbles

Kanye Udoh #6 of the Army Black Knights Dustin Satloff/Getty Images

I'm not going to lie, the committee didn't pay much respect to undefeated Army in its initial rankings. Despite being one of the few unbeaten teams in the nation, the committee ranked the Black Knights at No. 25.

Sure, the Black Knights have a long way to go to make it into the committee's final top 12 given how far outside they are in the initial rankings. But there is a path to the playoff for Army, even if it seems a bit unlikely.

The first thing Army must do is win the rest of its games in the regular season. Army plays at North Texas on Saturday, followd by games against No. 10 Notre Dame, UTSA and Navy.

But that isn't enough—Army must also win the American Athletic Conference title game, assuming the Black Knights win out to stay atop the AAC standings at the end of the regular season. Army looks likely to play 7-2 Tulane in that game, with the Green Wave currently standing at 5-0 in conference play.

But the biggest key for Army to earn a bid? No. 12 Boise State out of the Mountain West Conference, which is representing the Group of Five in the CFP, would have to massively stumble. That would mean the Broncos would likely have to lose at least a couple of their remaining regular-season games, a slate that includes a game against Nevada on Saturday followed by tilts against San Jose State, Wyoming and Oregon State.

Boise State would also likely need to lose the Mountain West title game—if it makes it there—to either Colorado State, UNLV, or San Diego State, who are currently second, third and fourth behind the Broncos in the conference standings.

Sure, Army may be a bit of a longshot, but there is still a path for the Black Knights, even if it seems unlikely.

The Big 12's Colorado, Kansas State and Iowa State Are Still in the Mix

Shedeur Sanders #2 of the Colorado Buffaloes Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

No. 9 BYU is the frontrunner in the Big 12, as the Cougars are undefeated through 10 weeks. But there are real shots for other teams in the Big 12, including No. 20 Colorado, No. 19 Kansas State and No. 17 Iowa State. Here's a look at the current Big 12 standings:

  1. BYU 8-0 overall, 5-0 in the conference 
  2. Iowa State 7-1 overall, 4-1 in the conference 
  3. Colorado 6-2 overall, 4-1 in the conference
  4. Kansas State 7-2 overall, 4-2 in the conference

First, all three of these teams could use a stumble from BYU. It seems unlikely, but the Cougars could hit a snag against Utah, Kansas, Arizona State or Houston. But will that be enough to keep BYU out of the Big 12 title game? Probably not.

For all three of these teams, beating BYU in the Big 12 title game would earn an automatic CFP berth, including a first-round bye. If any of them win out, that should be enough to earn a spot in the Big 12 title game. Let's briefly run through what each team has left in the regular season.

Instead of running through the multitude of scenarios for each team and every game they have left, there is a chance that some of these teams will fall victim to the Big 12 tiebreaker rules. A few of those here:

The tied teams will be compared based on their head-to-head record during the season.
(or)The tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against all common conference opponents.
(or)The tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference) proceeding through the standings.
(or)The tied teams will be compared based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents.

Sure, it's a bit complicated, but there is a path for Colorado, Iowa State and Kansas State. Regardless, whoever wants a bid needs to earn a spot in the Big 12 title game and then win it, likely against BYU.

The Path for SMU, Pittsburgh and Clemson Goes Through Miami

Xavier Restrepo #7 of the Miami Hurricanes Leonardo Fernandez/Getty Images

In the ACC, undefeated Miami sits atop the standings at 9-0. For No. 13 SMU, No. 18 Pitt and even No. 23 Clemson, the main way they can make the playoff is by beating Miami in the ACC title game.

If the season ended today, undefeated Miami would play 8-1 SMU in the ACC title game in Charlotte. The Mustangs are tied atop the ACC standings with the Hurricanes, sitting at 5-0 in conference play. SMU has remaining games against Boston College, Virginia and Cal. ESPN's FPI has the Mustangs favored in each of those games.

Behind SMU is No. 23 Clemson, which is 6-2 overall with a 5-1 mark in ACC play. Tied for second place with the Tigers is No. 18 Pittsburgh, with a 3-1 mark in conference play.

Let's start with Pitt, which has just one loss on the season, which came against SMU last week. For the Panthers to make it to the ACC title game, not only will they have to win their remaining four games against Virginia, No. 23 Clemson, at No. 22 Louisville and at Boston College, but they will also need SMU to drop at least one of its conference games. The Panthers would then need to beat the Canes in Charlotte to earn an automatic berth and first-round bye.

As for Clemson, it would need the same thing to happen with respect to winning out, SMU losing and beating Miami.

The other caveat here? The ACC's method for tiebreakers. If all teams are tied in conference play at the end of the regular season, the deciding factor per conference rules is the winning percentage of each team's ACC opponents in conference games.

Sure, it's a lot harder to see Pitt and Clemson's path to the playoff than SMU's. But there is a possibility for all three teams to end up in the final top 12.

In the SEC, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M still have a shot

DJ Hicks #13 of the Texas A&M Aggies celebrates with Shemar Turner #5 Tim Warner/Getty Images

Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M still have outside shots at making the final 12. While all three of them would need a lot of help from teams in front of them, there are a few ways they could earn bids.

We'll start with two-loss, No. 16 Ole Miss. The first and most important thing for the Rebels to do is win their remaining three games against No. 3 Georgia, Florida and Mississippi State. Since the Rebels already have two losses, Ole Miss can't afford another. A win over Georgia on Saturday would likely be enough to vault the Rebels into the playoff picture.

Ole Miss' shot at making the SEC title game is slim with two conference losses while already trailing No. 5 Texas and No. 7 Tennessee in the standings. But beating Georgia, Florida and MSU would likely be enough for Ole Miss to make the top 12 as an at-large team.

For No. 15 LSU to make it in, the Tigers would have to win their final four games against No. 11 Alabama, at Florida, and home against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. Doing so would knock the Tide out, in addition to putting them at 10-2 on the season with one SEC loss to Texas A&M.

There is a chance LSU misses out on the SEC Championship Game if A&M and Georgia win out, but if either team stumbles, a conference title game berth is on the table. Winning that game would give the Tigers an automatic bid and first-round bye, but losing that one likely wouldn't knock the Tigers out entirely.

For No. 14 Texas A&M, the path is similar to Ole Miss'—win out, and the Aggies are in. TAMU's last three regular-season games are vs. New Mexico State, at Auburn and vs. No. 5 Texas. Georgia playing Tennessee will likely determine which of the two go to Atlanta, and Texas A&M also has a win over LSU, the only other one-loss SEC team they'd have to compete against for a spot in the SEC title game.

   

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