Sportsbooks cannot keep sharp bettors in the red. Eventually, they bounce back. Bleacher Report's NFL experts did that in a big way, going 7-3 on consensus picks for Week 9.
B/R's betting crew, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton, along with editors Wes O'Donnell, Ian Hanford and Vince Michelino from B/R Betting Strategy, is feeling a little dangerous this week. They're playing with five road dogs and are going against the reigning Super Bowl champions in the game with the biggest spread.
Our crew also has three unanimous selections. Are the lines that easy to pick apart, or did we fall for a few traps?
Before we break down the Week 10 slate, check out our leaderboard. Halfway through the season, O'Donnell has a 58.7 percent win rate. In each of the last four weeks, at least two of our experts have recorded double-digit wins.
ATS Standings
1. O'Donnell: 79-55-4 (10-5)
2. Hanford: 72-62-4 (9-6)
3. Knox: 71-63-4 (9-6)
T-4. Moton: 67-67-4 (7-8)
T-4. Sobleski: 67-67-4 (10-5)
T-6. Gagnon 66-68-4 (5-10)
T-6. Michelino: 66-68-4 (7-8)
8. Davenport: 63-71-4 (9-6)
Consensus picks: 58-53-2 (7-3)
Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Nov. 6, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by TeamRankings.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
DraftKings Line: Baltimore -6
Fresh off blowout wins at home, the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals will square off Thursday night in a division game with huge implications.
The more physical team typically has the edge on short weeks. That should give the Ravens the edge, particularly since running back Derrick Henry is the new focal point of their offense. Meanwhile, the Bengals may play this game without wideout Tee Higgins, who caught nine passes for 83 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting between these teams earlier this season.
Half of our experts still gave Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow the benefit of the doubt to keep his team closer than a touchdown. Knox thinks Burrow will move the ball through the air, but he's worried about the Bengals' key injuries.
"This is a tricky one. The Bengals are usually a threat when Burrow is healthy in November, and Baltimore's secondary isn't good. It fared well enough against Bo Nix in Week 9, but Nix isn't Burrow. And Burrow tends to find a rhythm against the Ravens. He's also terrific against the blitz, which is pretty much Baltimore's only plan for generating pressure. Taking Cincinnati and the points is probably the smart call.
"However, I'm concerned about the injuries of Higgins, Orlando Brown Jr. and B.J. Hill. I'm also concerned that the line sits just under seven points. I think the Ravens win by more than a touchdown at home."
Predictions
Davenport: Bengals
Gagnon: Bengals
Hanford: Ravens
Knox: Ravens
Michelino: Bengals
Moton: Ravens
O'Donnell: Ravens
Sobleski: Bengals
ATS Consensus: None
Score Prediction: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
New York Giants (2-7) at Carolina Panthers (2-7)
DK Line: New York -5.5
The New York Giants and Carolina Panthers will play in Munich, Germany, at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday. Although both teams are only 2-7 coming into the game, this is an intriguing matchup.
Giants head coach Brian Daboll is trying to tailor a game plan that accentuates quarterback Daniel Jones' strengths. Last week, Big Blue relied on its ground game, with Jones picking up yards on designed runs.
Meanwhile, Panthers second-year signal-caller Bryce Young has made some strides since the team reinserted him back into the starting lineup in place of Andy Dalton (sprained thumb) two weeks ago.
In a rare occurrence this year, O'Donnell backed the Giants. He expects Big Blue's defense to help the club stay up by at least a touchdown.
"It takes a trip to Germany and a battle with another 2-7 team for the Giants to be favored by bookmakers for the first time in 24 games. I don't like anything about this one aside from the early kickoff time. These two teams barely average two touchdowns' worth of points per game.
"The Giants have the better defense and are still leading the league in sacks. I'll lean on that, especially since the Panthers aren't good enough to win two games in a row. I'm laying the points due to the Giants having kicking issues and having to score touchdowns rather than field goals."
Predictions
Davenport: Giants
Gagnon: Giants
Hanford: Giants
Knox: Giants
Michelino: Giants
Moton: Giants
O'Donnell: Giants
Sobleski: Panthers
ATS Consensus: Giants -5.5
Score Prediction: Giants 24, Panthers 17
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) at Washington Commanders (7-2)
DK Line: Washington -2.5
The Washington Commanders' third-ranked scoring offense will clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers' second-ranked scoring defense in the nation's capital on Sunday. Pittsburgh will have to slow down 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' third-ranked rushing attack.
Hanford looked at the Steelers' history against rookie quarterbacks under head coach Mike Tomlin, which caused him to side with the road underdog.
"The Commanders are one of the best stories in the NFL this season, but you're really giving Tomlin points against a rookie quarterback?" Hanford asked. "As good as Daniels has been, Tomlin-led Steelers teams are 25-6 against rookie quarterbacks.
"Washington isn't going to run the ball with ease against this daunting Pittsburgh defense that's allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game. And the Steelers have improved their offensive output since switching to Russell Wilson under center.
"I like this Commanders team, but I can't pick against Tomlin's track record here. Steelers cover and win outright."
Predictions
Davenport: Steelers
Gagnon: Steelers
Hanford: Steelers
Knox: Steelers
Michelino: Commanders
Moton: Steelers
O'Donnell: Steelers
Sobleski: Steelers
ATS Consensus: Steelers +2.5
Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Commanders 21
Atlanta Falcons (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-7)
DK Line: Atlanta -3.5
Following their loss to the Carolina Panthers last Sunday, the New Orleans Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen. Special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi is taking over as the interim head coach.
To make matters worse, the Saints have a ton of injuries at wide receiver. Chris Olave suffered a concussion in last week's game and seems unlikely to play this week. Meanwhile, New Orleans has placed Rashid Shaheed and Bub Means on injured reserve. The former is out for the season.
Experienced bettors believe in the "interim-coaching bump" after a team fires its head coach, although that didn't work out in the New York Jets' favor when they failed to cover a 2.5-point spread against the Buffalo Bills in Week 6.
A few experts took the Saints with the interim-coach bump because of the hook. Knox explained why he's rolling the dice on New Orleans.
"On paper, the Falcons should have no business losing this game. Of course, the Saints had no business losing to the Panthers in Week 9, and they did it anyway," Knox recalled.
"Atlanta is the better team, but it's also dealing with key injuries to Drake London (hip) and Grady Jarrett (Achilles). It also barely escaped the Saints in the first meeting, winning by two. New Orleans isn't exactly healthy, but it is accustomed to playing short-handed at this point in the season.
"Divisional matchups often invite shenanigans, and I have a feeling we'll see the unexpected in New Orleans. Rizzi may inspire a stronger effort from the Saints than we've seen in recent weeks. I'll bank on the interim-coach bump, the home-field advantage and the points here."
Predictions
Davenport: Falcons
Gagnon: Falcons
Hanford: Saints
Knox: Saints
Michelino: Falcons
Moton: Saints
O'Donnell: Saints
Sobleski: Falcons
ATS Consensus: None
Score Prediction: Falcons 23, Saints 20
New England Patriots (2-7) at Chicago Bears (4-4)
DK Line: Chicago -6
At this point of the season, No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye is playing better than No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. That's surprising since the former has suited up for only three full games, while the latter has led his offense since the opening week of the season.
Over the last two weeks, Williams has completed only 49 percent of his passes. Meanwhile, Maye has completed 70 percent of his passes in his last two full-game performances with a less talented pass-catching group than Chicago's unit.
Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron must draw up a clever game plan for this matchup, or the fans may run him out of Chicago.
While our crew thinks Chicago wins the contest, they reached a consensus in favor of New England. However, Moton made a case for the Bears to cover in a get-right game.
"Typically, teams come out of their bye week more refined with better execution, but the Bears have looked the complete opposite after their Week 7 bye. Over the last two weeks, their opponents have outscored them 47-24. They scored only two touchdowns in those contests, and Williams didn't throw a touchdown pass.
"Although bettors should be hesitant to trust Chicago's discombobulated offense to cover a touchdown spread, the Patriots have allowed the fifth-most yards per pass attempt this season. The Bears offense has a chance to get back on track with a strong home outing against a team with far fewer playmakers, specifically at wide receiver.
"Williams helps restore faith in the Bears offense with a solid passing performance in a win by more than a touchdown."
Predictions
Davenport: Patriots
Gagnon: Patriots
Hanford: Patriots
Knox: Bears
Michelino: Patriots
Moton: Bears
O'Donnell: Bears
Sobleski: Patriots
ATS Consensus: Patriots +6
Score Prediction: Bears 21, Patriots 17
Denver Broncos (5-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)
DK Line: Kansas City -8
Last Monday, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in overtime with a walk-off touchdown. Some bettors may be worried about a team covering a big spread following an overtime game on a short week against a divisional opponent.
All signs point to the Denver Broncos covering in this situation, but they completely flopped against an AFC heavyweight last week, losing 41-10 to the Baltimore Ravens.
With that said, Davenport thinks we'll see Patrick Mahomes magic late in this game for a Chiefs win, but too late for Kansas City to cover an eight-point spread.
"There is a real chance that the Chiefs put together a complete effort at home against a division rival and blow the Broncos' doors off. Mahomes is a cyborg sent from the future to destroy the hopes and dreams of opponents, and for some unfathomable reason, the rest of the NFL let him have DeAndre Hopkins.
"But the undefeated Chiefs have trailed in every game but one this season. They have covered a spread this large only twice in eight games. And even after getting annihilated last week in Baltimore, Denver is still sixth in total defense and third in scoring defense.
"The Mahomesinator will rip Denver's still-beating heart from its chest and show it to them as oblivion engulfs them, but he'll do it late. Close. It's more fun that way."
Predictions
Davenport: Broncos
Gagnon: Broncos
Hanford: Broncos
Knox: Chiefs
Michelino: Broncos
Moton: Chiefs
O'Donnell: Broncos
Sobleski: Broncos
ATS Consensus: Broncos +8
Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Broncos 17
Buffalo Bills (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
DK Line: Buffalo -4
The Buffalo Bills are flying a bit under the radar. They haven't played in a nationally televised game since beating the New York Jets in Week 6. Buffalo has won four consecutive games, averaging 29.5 points in that span, and it has the second-best record in the AFC.
Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts have scratched and clawed their way to a mediocre 4-5 record. They're trying to spark the offense with 39-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco, who struggled against the Minnesota Vikings' 28th-ranked pass defense last week. He finished 16-of-27 for 179 yards, no touchdowns and one interception.
Based on the recent trends, the Bills are the side to take in this matchup. O'Donnell agrees with that perspective.
"The last thing the Colts' QB quagmire needs is a visit from a team with an MVP front-runner," O'Donnell said. "And they get just that with Josh Allen coming to town."
"Indy's defense is giving up nearly 384 yards per game. The Bills have a top-five scoring offense with no real weaknesses. I won't be fooled by the divisional nail-biter last week and think less of Buffalo. This game shouldn't be close."
Sobleski also backed the Bills.
"The Bills going into Indianapolis and essentially getting a seven-point swing in their favor is a direct indictment of the Colts' recent decision-making process. That isn't to say that Anthony Richardson is a difference-maker who could have changed the line. Rather, it's a reflection of how the Flacco move turned out to be a complete disaster.
Indianapolis can do far better than the 227 total yards and six offensive points that it tallied against the Vikings. But the 39-year-old statuesque quarterback will be playing behind two rookie interior linemen. Unless Jonathan Taylor somehow finds running room against Buffalo, it's hard to see this game even being close."
Predictions
Davenport: Bills
Gagnon: Colts
Hanford: Bills
Knox: Bills
Michelino: Bills
Moton: Colts
O'Donnell: Bills
Sobleski: Bills
ATS Consensus: Bills -4
Score Prediction: Bills 27, Colts 20
San Francisco 49ers (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5)
DK Line: San Francisco -5.5
Bettors should wait to hear about running back Christian McCaffrey's status before wagering on this game. He's the X-factor in the matchup.
McCaffrey could significantly boost the 49ers' sixth-ranked scoring offense, specifically in the red zone, where they rank 28th in scoring touchdowns. But even if McCaffrey plays, he may not take on a full workload in his regular-season debut.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored at least 24 points without their top two wide receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, against playoff-caliber opponents in the Atlanta Falcons and Kansas City Chiefs over the past two weeks. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield helped his team cover an 8.5-point spread last Monday, and Sobleski can see him doing it again, albeit with a thinner point margin.
"On paper, this matchup looks like an easy choice in the 49ers' favor. After all, San Francisco is coming off its bye and had two weeks to prepare for this contest. Tampa Bay has lost three in a row. And the Bucs offense can't possibly be the same without Evans and Godwin. But this is an ideal game to take the points.
"Yes, Tampa is in the midst of a three-game losing streak. However, those three losses came to opponents with a combined 20-6 record. Mayfield and Co. have been good at making those games interesting in the fourth quarter. But Monday's performance against the Chiefs may have been the most impressive because Tampa Bay showed it can compete with the league's best, even without its top two wideouts.
"This selection is a total spread play with the Bucs at least gaining a backdoor cover."
Predictions
Davenport: Buccaneers
Gagnon: 49ers
Hanford: 49ers
Knox: Buccaneers
Michelino: Buccaneers
Moton: 49ers
O'Donnell: Buccaneers
Sobleski: Buccaneers
ATS Consensus: Buccaneers +5.5
Score Prediction: 49ers 26, Buccaneers 23
Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)
DK Line: Minnesota -4
The Minnesota Vikings finally have their full arsenal of pass-catchers. Last week, tight end T.J. Hockenson made his season debut coming off a torn ACL and MCL, hauling in three passes for 27 yards.
The Vikings should be overwhelming favorites against a beat-up Jacksonville Jaguars squad at the bottom of the AFC standings. Running backs Travis Etienne Jr. (hamstring) and Tank Bigsby (ankle) are playing through injuries. Wide receiver Christian Kirk is out for the season with a broken collarbone. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a shoulder injury that is clouding his status for Sunday's game.
The Jaguars showed some fight and nearly pulled off a comeback victory over the Philadelphia Eagles last week, but our crew doesn't see them keeping it close with the Vikings. Moton expects Minesota's offense to pierce through Jacksonville's leaky defense.
"The Vikings reminded everyone they're still a good team with a 21-13 win over a gritty Indianapolis Colts squad on Sunday Night Football, snapping a two-game skid. They now get a weaker AFC South opponent in the Jaguars, who also beat the Joe Flacco-led Colts in Week 5.
"While the math with common opponents isn't that simple, the Vikings have more than enough firepower to outscore the Jaguars. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Hockenson should feast on Jacksonville's 31st-ranked pass defense in a comfortable win."
Predictions
Davenport: Vikings
Gagnon: Vikings
Hanford: Vikings
Knox: Vikings
Michelino: Vikings
Moton: Vikings
O'Donnell: Vikings
Sobleski: Vikings
ATS Consensus: Vikings-4
Score Prediction: Vikings 31, Jaguars 24
Tennessee Titans (2-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
DK Line: Los Angeles -7.5
The Los Angeles Chargers offense looks more dynamic with each passing week, particularly through the air,
In Week 7, Justin Herbert had his first 300-plus-yard outing of the season. The following week, he threw for multiple touchdowns without an interception. Last week, he averaged a season-high 10.4 yards per pass attempt.
Going into Week 10, the Chargers have far more offensive balance than they had early in the season. Defenses must adjust to Herbert's willingness to throw downfield.
Though the Tennessee Titans are allowing a league-low 269.1 yards per game, they turn the ball over at an alarming rate. Tennessee has the second-most giveaways, trailing only the Las Vegas Raiders.
Moton highlighted Tennessee's quarterback uncertainty, but it didn't sway his decision to pick the Chargers to cover in this spot.
"Titans quarterback Will Levis could play for the first time since Week 6. Last week, he recorded limited practices Wednesday through Friday. If Levis returns, the Titans could turn the ball over at a high rate. He's accounted for seven interceptions and three lost fumbles.
"Even with Mason Rudolph under center for the last three games, the Titans have turned the ball over seven times. Rudolph has thrown four interceptions and lost a fumble.
"So, regardless who starts at quarterback for the Titans, the Chargers are the side in this matchup. Los Angeles has started to pick up steam offensively, winning by 18 and 17 points in its last two contests with the New Orleans and Cleveland Browns, respectively.
"The Chargers passing attack will continue to blossom with Herbert throwing downfield to a healthy wide receiver group. Los Angeles covers against another bottom-tier team."
Predictions
Davenport: Chargers
Gagnon: Chargers
Hanford: Chargers
Knox: Chargers
Michelino: Chargers
Moton: Chargers
O'Donnell: Chargers
Sobleski: Chargers
ATS Consensus: Chargers -7.5
Score Prediction: Chargers 24, Titans 13
Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-5)
DK Line: Philadelphia -7.5
The Dallas Cowboys lost multiple key defenders early in the season. Cornerback DaRon Bland (foot) hasn't taken a regular-season snap, while defensive ends DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) and Micah Parsons (ankle) haven't played since Week 4.
Now, the Cowboys have bigger issues with quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) likely headed to injured reserve and star receiver CeeDee Lamb battling a shoulder injury.
The Cowboys defense has been a run funnel without its top defenders. Now, they could struggle to score points without their starting quarterback and a banged-up star receiver.
Our panel unanimously sided with the Philadelphia Eagles here. Hanford broke down this matchup in simple terms.
"This one is fairly straightforward," Hanford said. "Prescott is out for the foreseeable future. Lamb seems likely to play but is on the mend after suffering a shoulder injury last week.
"This rivalry series has gone back and forth over the last two years, but the Cowboys haven't been very good even with Dak and Lamb this season, so I shudder to think what they'll look like without them. Meanwhile, the Eagles defense looks better every week, and Saquon Barkley should have a field day against the Cowboys' porous run defense.
"Philadelphia wins this by at least 10."
Predictions
Davenport: Eagles
Gagnon: Eagles
Hanford: Eagles
Knox: Eagles
Michelino: Eagles
Moton: Eagles
O'Donnell: Eagles
Sobleski: Eagles
ATS Consensus: Eagles -7.5
Score Prediction: Eagles 34, Cowboys 20
New York Jets (3-6) at Arizona Cardinals (5-4)
DK Line: Arizona -1
Last week, the New York Jets offense performed at a level many envisioned when they acquired Davante Adams from the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Jets scored 21 points in the second half of their Thursday Night Football contest with the Houston Texans. To put that into context, they didn't score more than 20 points in any of their games between Weeks 4 and 7.
Our panel considered whether the Jets' mini-bye week would help their focus or hurt their momentum. Michelino spoke on behalf of the consensus pick in favor of Gang Green.
"Both of these teams are coming off huge wins but find themselves in dramatically different places at this point in the season. There's no denying the Cardinals are one of the best surprises in the league, maintaining a first-place lead in the up-for-grabs NFC West and rewarding believers with a 6-3 record ATS. Their strong rushing attack has offset their defensive inefficiencies and makes for a challenging matchup against most opponents, including the Jets…on paper.
"There's no question Jets are in must-win territory from here on out and have struggled on the road this season. Their best hope is that the offensive eruption they showcased on TNF was a sign of things to come. Aaron Rodgers and Adams finally shared a reunion in the end zone, and Garrett Wilson showcased his potential with a ridiculous touchdown grab. The question remains, how consistent will they be?
"This game is a near pick'em, as it should be. Conventional wisdom suggests the Cardinals will eke out a close one, but I've trusted my gut with the Jets in select spots this season, and I'm doing so again here. I think we're in for a vintage Rodgers performance."
Predictions
Davenport: Cardinals
Gagnon: Jets
Hanford: Jets
Knox: Jets
Michelino: Jets
Moton: Jets
O'Donnell: Jets
Sobleski: Cardinals
ATS Consensus: Jets +1
Score Prediction: Jets 27, Cardinals 24
Detroit Lions (7-1) at Houston Texans (6-3)
DK Line: Detroit -3.5
If Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (hamstring) returns from injured reserve, this matchup could have plenty of offensive fireworks.
The Texans offense hasn't been the same without Collins, averaging only 19.3 points per game over the last three weeks. In that span, quarterback C.J. Stroud has thrown just one touchdown pass.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions have dominated the competition with their No. 1-ranked scoring offense, averaging a jaw-dropping 39.2 points over their last five outings.
While five of our panelists expect the Lions to cover on the road, Gagnon couldn't resist the hook.
"This wasn't an easy call considering that the Lions are rolling, but the resilient Texans haven't lost back-to-back games since last September. At home and on extra rest following a Thursday game, they'll at least keep this close. The sportsbooks are trying to get you with that hook!"
Predictions
Davenport: Lions
Gagnon: Texans
Hanford: Lions
Knox: Lions
Michelino: Lions
Moton: Lions
O'Donnell: Lions
Sobleski: Lions
ATS Consensus: Lions -3.5
Score Prediction: Lions 29, Texans 24
Miami Dolphins (2-6) at Los Angeles Rams (4-4)
DK Line: Los Angeles -2.5
The Miami Dolphins come into this matchup with their backs against the wall. They're a long shot to get back into the playoff picture, but if they have some fight left in them, they could score in flurries with quarterback Tua Tagvailoa and all of his speedy playmakers healthy for this prime-time contest.
Davenport picked the Dolphins to win outright, as he expects Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane to run up and down the field against the Los Angeles Rams' below-average defense.
"Frankly, there's not an obvious reason why a two-win Dolphins team, which is 0-3 since its bye week, will go into SoFi Stadium and beat a quietly competitive Rams team," Davenport said. But the Rams are 23rd against the pass this season, and the Dolphins can unleash all of their speed inside a dome in prime time.
"The gap between these teams isn't as wide as their records would indicate. Dolphins get an 'upset' win that really isn't.
"If that seemed like my most reasoned analysis of a pick this season, it may be because I'm running a fever."
Predictions
Davenport: Dolphins
Gagnon: Dolphins
Hanford: Rams
Knox: Dolphins
Michelino: Rams
Moton: Dolphins
O'Donnell: Rams
Sobleski: Dolphins
ATS Consensus: Dolphins +2.5
Score Prediction: Dolphins 28, Rams 24
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