Sometimes, a good plan comes together.
Other times, it does not.
In the world of sports wagering, a week rarely follows the blueprint one builds in advance. Things happen, losses happen and the vision changes. This is very normal.
Although last week, Locks of the Week followed through on the overwhelming majority of its plans and picks. And in doing so, after so many close calls, profitability is now in sight.
A 7-2 showing in Week 10 has us at 45-46 for the year. We're not satisfied with a mark under .500, although we are proud how we got here. After a rough start, things turned. And as the regular season begins its wind down, we're looking to close strong.
Before we get to this week's picks, here's what went right and wrong from the previous week.
The Good: South Carolina (+2.5) vs. Texas A&M: We had a handful of games to pick from this week, although this one was probably the most resounding winner. The Gamecocks didn't just cover the spread; they won this game by more than three scores.
The Bad: Auburn (-6.5) vs. Vanderbilt: While there was very little bad last week, this was very bad. The Auburn offense was dreadful, and fading Vanderbilt, a fun football team with an electric QB, proved to be a terrible idea.
Can we do it again? Let's find out.
For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.
Kansas (+3) vs. Iowa State
After flirting with a loss the prior week, Iowa State took things one step further at home against Texas Tech in Week 10. The Cyclones' unbeaten season came undone, and now they will have to go on the road.
While Iowa State has proven to be a difficult out in close games, the opposite can be said about Kansas. The Jayhawks have two wins, and they came against Lindenwood and Houston. Five of their six losses, however, came by six points or less.
This team is better than its 2-6 record shows, although it hasn't played well in close games. Coming off a bye and playing a team suddenly reeling after a close loss, this is a spot for KU, which has a brutal stretch of games still to come, to get right.
This point spread says it all. The one-loss ranked team is likely to garner a ton of support. We'll be backing the other side.
North Texas (+5.5) vs. Army
On the topic of interesting point spreads, the undefeated team—and one of the darlings of college football—is a small favorite over a three-loss team that has given up nearly 100 points in its past two games.
North Texas is by no means perfect. The defense currently ranks No. 128 nationally in scoring, and that won't get better in one week. The rushing defense hasn't been good, and that doesn't bode well for an Army team that can (and will) run the ball.
With that said, this offense is a force. North Texas currently owns the nation's No. 6 scoring offense. The Mean Green have scored 40 points or more in four of their past five games, which means Army will have to bring it.
It's worth noting that Army QB Bryson Daily, one of the best QBs in the country, missed the team's last game because of an injury. While he's expected to play this week, North Texas still can keep this game inside the spread.
Also, that's worth keeping an eye on.
Don't miss this one; it has a chance to be one of the more exciting games this weekend.
Ole Miss (+2.5) vs. Georgia
To be clear, Lane Kiffin hasn't exactly dazzled in big football games. As Ole Miss tries to battle back from early losses, it has the opportunity to rebound in enormous fashion with a win in Week 11.
The oddsmakers certainly feel like a mild upset is possible based on this line, which has our attention.
Given just how frequently Georgia QB Carson Beck has turned the ball over, it's not hard to see why. The Bulldogs battled as more than a two-touchdown underdog against a Florida team that played a good chunk of the game with its third-string QB.
Needless to say, outside of its superb win over Texas, Georgia hasn't exactly dazzled.
Ole Miss was dazzling against Arkansas last weekend, and a game like that could produce the upset this team's fanbase has been searching for. A performance like that on offense and defense could be exactly what Kiffin has been looking for.
Kiffin gets the cover and a big win (finally).
Utah (+4) vs. BYU
The Utes have lost four straight games, failing to score 20 points in all four of those outings. The favorite to win the Big 12 before the season began is now 4-4, without its starting QB and entering a difficult stretch of games to close out the year.
Despite all of Utah's struggles, the Utes are just a small underdog against undefeated BYU.
Part of that is an electric home-field advantage. Even in a down year, Rice-Eccles Stadium knows how to pack a punch. The other part involves BYU, which is now very much a College Football Playoff contender.
Yes, the Cougars are unbeaten. Although a close call against Oklahoma State at home a few weeks back lifted the concern level some.
As good as this team has played, there are still questions about the Cougars moving forward. The oddsmakers have those questions, and so do I.
Boston College (-1.5) vs. Syracuse
Syracuse was good to us last week.
Although the Orange fell behind early, a late rally against Virginia Tech propelled the small underdog in overtime. While things didn't look good for a while, they ended right where they were supposed to.
A week later, the Orange finds itself a small underdog against Boston College on the road. This seems particularly noteworthy when you consider that the Eagles have lost their last three games.
It's worth noting, however, that two of those games were played on the road. The other, a close loss to Louisville before the team enjoyed a bye last week, was decided by only four points.
Quarterback Thomas Castellanos can be electric, and that is precisely the kind of effort that he'll need to deliver here. Coming off a much-needed week off should help, as will home field.
Look for BC to end its losing stream with a tight win.
Other Games on the Card
East Carolina (-7) vs. FAU
A Thursday night game, East Carolina is coming off a 56-point performance over Temple last game. FAU, despite playing well early, fell apart against South Florida. ECU can be a tricky place for road teams, and that should be the case here.
Memphis (-9) vs. Rice
This feels like a perfect get-right spot for Memphis, which fell to UTSA one week ago. Rice, meanwhile, is coming off a win over Navy. Despite that win, look for the Tigers' offense to dominate this matchup.
Virginia Tech vs. Clemson (Over 52.5)
Speaking of offense, don't sleep on this football game. Both teams are coming off losses, although both teams also know how to score. After lackluster finishes in Week 10, expect fireworks here.
TCU (-11) vs. Oklahoma State
There's no sugarcoating it. This OK State season has been an absolute nightmare. Now, as the schedule winds down and a six-game losing streak progresses, one can't help but wonder how much the Pokes have left in the tank.
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