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College Football Playoff Projections: Week 11 Rankings and Bowl Forecast

David Kenyon

After two-plus months of games, we've reached a major milestone of the season, as the first College Football Playoff rankings are upon us.

On Tuesday night, the CFP selection committee released its first official Top 25. As expected, Oregon stands at No. 1 ahead of Ohio State, Georgia, Miami and Texas. The Big Ten leads all conferences with four programs in the CFP Top 10.

And I'm sure we all agree on everything in the poll.

Time for my annual reminder! Don't freak out yet. There are highly impactful head-to-head matchups on the horizon, including Georgia at Ole Miss and Alabama at LSU in Week 11. Things will change.

In the wake of those results, bowl projections will change, too. There are 45 eligible teams, and 26 more programs need a single win. The battle for one of 82 postseason slots is intensifying.

The following postseason picks are subjective but are based on official tie-ins while observing all selection processes and contingencies.

Week 11 CFP Rankings

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1. Oregon

2. Ohio State

3. Georgia

4. Miami

5. Texas

6. Penn State

7. Tennessee

8. Indiana

9. BYU

10. Alabama

11. Notre Dame

12. Boise State

13. SMU

14. Texas A&M

15. LSU

16. Ole Miss

17. Iowa State

18. Pitt

19. Kansas State

20. Colorado

21. Washington State

22. Louisville

23. Clemson

24. Missouri

25. Army

Group of 5 Games

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Salute to Veterans Bowl (Dec. 14): Miami (Ohio) vs. Louisiana
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 17): North Texas vs. Connecticut
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18): South Florida vs. Marshall
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 19): Western Kentucky vs. Georgia Southern
Cure Bowl (Dec. 20): Ohio vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 23): East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Buffalo vs. Colorado State
Hawai'i Bowl (Dec. 24): Liberty vs. Fresno State
68Ventures (Dec. 26): Western Michigan vs. James Madison
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 28): Jacksonville State vs. Texas State
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 28): Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State
Bahamas Bowl (Jan. 4): Sam Houston vs. Northern Illinois

Trending Up: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

Because of a 41-33 loss to Tulane in September, Louisiana does not have a clear path to a national stage. In all likelihood, the AAC or Mountain West champion will represent the Group of Five in the first-ever expanded Playoff. But hey, the Ragin' Cajuns are 7-1. If they defeat Arkansas State this weekend, they'll be on the brink of clinching the Sun Belt's West Division. Louisiana is still on the radar.

Trending Down: Liberty Flames

Liberty, on the other hand, has plummeted from the conversation with two straight losses. After a stunning loss to then-winless Kennesaw State, the Flames fell to Jacksonville State. Liberty only needs one more victory to become bowl-eligible, but last season's G5 rep probably won't repeat as the Conference USA champion.

G5 vs. P4 Matchups

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LA Bowl (Dec. 18): UNLV vs. USC
GameAbove Sports Bowl (Dec. 26): Toledo vs. Nebraska
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 27): Tulane vs. West Virginia
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Military Bowl (Dec. 28): Navy vs. Boston College
Independence Bowl (Dec. 28): Army vs. Cal

Trending Up: Toledo Rockets

Although the Rockets have a couple of conference losses, they became the first MAC team to reach six victories this year. They survived what could've been a nightmare, giving up a Hail Mary to Eastern Michigan as time expired but stopped the two-point conversion for a nervy 29-28 win. Toledo is headed to a bowl for a fourth straight year.

Trending Down: USC Trojans

In a season full of "what if" moments, the Trojans added another one. USC lost to Washington 26-21, dropping to 4-5. All of those setbacks have included margins of seven points or fewer. Next, the Trojans have an open weekend to prepare for a vital two-game stretch of Nebraska and rival UCLA. If USC doesn't win both, it'll need to upset Notre Dame—currently a CFP-bound team—to even finish 6-6.

Power 4 Bowls, Part 1

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Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20): North Carolina State vs. Arkansas
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26): Michigan State vs. TCU
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27): North Carolina vs. Oklahoma
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 27): Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27): Clemson vs. Colorado
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27): Arizona State vs. Ole Miss
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28): Georgia Tech vs. Michigan
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28): Syracuse vs. Iowa State
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28): Kansas State vs. Washington State

Trending Up: North Carolina State Wolfpack

Consecutive home losses to Wake Forest and Syracuse put North Carolina State in the postseason danger zone. However, the team has responded with victories over Cal and Stanford. (Thanks, Pac-12?) NC State needs to beat any of Duke, Georgia Tech or rival North Carolina down the stretch to record a sixth win.

Trending Down: Iowa State Cyclones

Last weekend, Texas Tech scored a late touchdown to upset Iowa State. This week, though, Iowa State should be massive Tech fans. Saturday's loss—the Cyclones' first blemish of the year—combined with Kansas State's collapse at Houston means ISU may need a little help to leap Colorado in the Big 12 standings. Texas Tech hosts CU in Week 11.

Power 4 Bowls, Part 2

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Music City Bowl (Dec. 30): Wisconsin vs. Missouri
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Iowa vs. Texas A&M
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31): Duke vs. Washington
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Illinois vs. Alabama
Texas Bowl (Dec. 31): Texas Tech vs. South Carolina
Gator Bowl (Jan. 2): Pitt vs. LSU
First Responder (Jan. 3): Oregon State vs. Baylor
Mayo Bowl (Jan. 3): Louisville vs. Minnesota

Trending Up: South Carolina Gamecocks

South Carolina has turned it up lately, huh? After a competitive loss at Alabama, the Gamecocks have destroyed Oklahoma and upset Texas A&M. They're now 5-3 with an expected win over Wofford on the horizon—and they might beat Vanderbilt or Missouri before then anyway.

Trending Down: Wisconsin Badgers

Wisconsin's year has basically gone as expected with losses to Alabama, at USC, Penn State and at Iowa. Following an open weekend, Oregon looms next for the 5-4 Badgers, too. They'll likely be 5-5. Do you trust Wisconsin to win on the road against Nebraska or at home opposite rival Minnesota? I think the Badgers snag one of them, but a 22-year bowl streak is certainly in jeopardy of ending.

College Football Playoff

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First-Round Byes

The five highest-ranked conference champions (*) will automatically earn a CFP berth, and the four highest-ranked of that group will be placed in the quarterfinals. While this quartet is assumed to be from the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC), that's not guaranteed.

No. 1: Oregon*, Big Ten champion in Rose Bowl
No. 2 Georgia*, SEC champion in Sugar Bowl
No. 3: Miami*, ACC champion in Peach Bowl
No. 4: BYU*, Big 12 champion in Fiesta Bowl

First-Round Games

No. 12 Boise State* (MWC champion) at No. 5 Ohio State (winner to Fiesta Bowl)
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Texas (winner to Peach Bowl)
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Notre Dame (winner to Sugar Bowl)
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Penn State (winner to Rose Bowl)

Trending Up: SMU Mustangs

SMU hardly could have dreamed up a better weekend. Not only did the Mustangs hammer then-undefeated Pitt, but Louisville also upset Clemson. The four-team logjam atop the standings has thinned to only SMU and Miami. The worst-case scenario—SMU being unbeaten in ACC play but missing the championship game on a tiebreaker—is no longer a possibility if the Mustangs win out.

Games to Watch: SEC Eliminations

Let's go with the short version. The loser of Alabama's trip to LSU will no longer be a factor in either the SEC or CFP races. Georgia can knock out Ole Miss from those conversations with a road victory, too. If Ole Miss topples UGA, though, the SEC's wide-open finish will only get messier.

   

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