Men's college basketball is finally back, with a staggering 199 games taking place on Monday alone. Thus begins the twisting, winding, loop-de-looping journey to crowning the 2025 national champion.

We simply cannot allow this season to begin without a projected bracket, though.

I won't lie to you fine folks: Most of the research that went into the seeding for this bracket was aggregating some of the many team rankings already put out by other people/computers.

While it's not exactly an average of KenPom, Haslametrics, BartTorvik, Matt Norlander's Top 100 And 1 and the preseason AP poll, the average of those five rankings was our starting point, from which minor manual adjustments were made here and there.

On top of that, the projected automatic bid for each of the 31 conferences is simply the team that was picked to win the league in the respective preseason media polls. (Work smarter, not harder.)

We all know the goal of preseason bracket projections isn't to be as accurate as possible, though. It's just a fun way to get hyped for the next five months, while maybe giving a few teams some bulletin-board material to carry as a chip on their shoulder.

So let's dive in with some thoughts on the biggest perception changes in each of the major conferences, an apology to the Mountain West and a preposterously early Cinderella pick.

The Projected Bracket

EAST REGION (Newark)

Providence, RI
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Kansas City
No. 8 BYU vs. No. 9 Mississippi State

Cleveland, OH
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 13 Ohio
No. 5 Illinois vs. No. 12 UAB

Milwaukee, WI
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Louisiana Tech
No. 6 Cincinnati vs. No. 11 Grand Canyon

Milwaukee, WI
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Quinnipiac
No. 7 Wake Forest vs. No. 10 Ole Miss/Maryland

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)

Wichita, KS
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Colgate/Little Rock
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Michigan

Seattle, WA
No. 4 Texas vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
No. 5 UCLA vs. No. 12 McNeese

Denver, CO
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Towson
No. 6 Indiana vs. No. 11 Boise State

Raleigh, NC
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Lipscomb
No. 7 Arkansas vs. No. 10 Memphis

SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)

Wichita, KS
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Grambling/Central Connecticut
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Oregon

Providence, RI
No. 4 Marquette vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 12 Princeton

Lexington, KY
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Arkansas State
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 VCU

Raleigh, NC
No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 15 Milwaukee
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Xavier

WEST REGION (San Francisco)

Lexington, KY
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 Howard
No. 8 Saint Mary's vs. No. 9 Ohio State

Cleveland, OH
No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 13 Vermont
No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Bradley

Denver, CO
No. 3 Arizona vs. No. 14 Samford
No. 6 St. John's vs. No. 11 Rutgers/Kansas State

Seattle, WA
No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 Montana
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Miami

Last Five In: 39. Xavier, 40. Ole Miss, 41. Maryland, 42. Kansas State, 43. Rutgers

First Five Out: 69. Wisconsin, 70. Dayton, 71. San Diego State, 72. Providence, 73. Iowa

ACC Summary

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 5. Duke; 8. North Carolina; 27. Wake Forest; 29. Clemson; 38. Miami

Also Considered: Pittsburgh, NC State, SMU, Syracuse, Virginia, Louisville

Biggest Change: Wake Forest and Miami in (missed 2024 dance)

Ho hum. Duke and North Carolina projected to win the ACC with a bunch of 'maybes' in their collective rearview mirror. It seems to be this league's preseason narrative more often than not. And with Duke's Cooper Flagg and North Carolina's R.J. Davis arguably the two most likely candidates to win the Wooden Award, the shoe still fits.

The who's who behind the Tobacco Road duo is a bit different, though.

Virginia is usually in that mix, but goodness only knows what to make of the Cavaliers after Tony Bennett's shocking retirement in mid-October. They were looking like a borderline tournament team before that, but perhaps mostly because of the faith we had in Bennett. Might now be a tough year in Charlottesville.

Instead, Wake Forest is looking like the third-best team in the ACC with one-time 5-star recruits Hunter Sallis and Efton Reid still in the fold. If Steve Forbes can do for Iowa State's Omaha Biliew (5-star recruit last year) what he did for the other two former transfers, the Demon Deacons could be scary good.

They already were quite good last year, though, ending the year at 28th on KenPom and only missing the NCAA tournament because of a horrific stretch of three consecutive bad losses late in the regular season. They're merely projected to finish the fight this time around.

Miami, on the other hand, is quite the "back from the dead" situation.

The Hurricanes went 15-17 before losing Norchad Omier to Baylor, Wooga Poplar to Villanova, Bensley Joseph to Providence and Kyshawn George to the NBA. But Jim Larranaga sure was busy, bringing in five transfers who averaged better than 11 points per game last season, including Jalen Blackmon (21.7 PPG) from Stetson. That's in addition to having already landed the highest-rated recruit in program history in Jalil Bethea.

Pairing that quintet of newcomers with Nijel Pack and Matthew Cleveland should put Miami—two years removed from a Final Four appearance—back on the national map.

Big 12 Summary

9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Houston, 2. Kansas, 7. Iowa State, 9. Arizona, 11. Baylor, 22. Cincinnati, 23. Texas Tech, 32. BYU, 42. Kansas State

Also Considered: TCU

Biggest Change: Greetings, Arizona; Welcome, Cincinnati

The Big 12 is loaded, per usual. It lost Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, yet grew in size with the additions of Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah from the artist formerly known as the Pac-12.

As was the case last year when Houston headlined a package deal that also included BYU, Cincinnati and UCF, it sure seems like the league got one serious contender in Arizona and a trio of also-rans who may well bring up the rear of the conference.

But who knows? BYU was a No. 6 seed last year, Cincinnati flirted with a spot in the field and UCF posted an overall winning record with a few surprising upsets. Maybe the Sun Devils, Buffaloes or Utes will be a factor.

Arizona is one of this league's five serious championship contenders, though, with Caleb Love back for seemingly his 10th season of college hoops. Both he and Kansas' Hunter Dickinson rank among the top handful of candidates for NPOY, both already boasting more than 2,000 career points. By the time they square off in the final game of the regular season, they might be battling each other for a spot in the top 25 of the NCAA's career points leaderboard.

But Arizona, Kansas, Baylor, Houston and Iowa State as contenders is nothing new. They were all in the top 14 of last year's overall seed list and look poised to do it again.

What is new, however, is Cincinnati in the projected field.

The Bearcats haven't gone dancing since 2019, but they retained four of their five leading scorers, added a pair of top-100 freshmen and made an extremely intriguing portal acquisition in the form of former Texas Longhorn Dillon Mitchell.

The top-10 overall recruit from two years ago never did quite blossom all the way in Austin, but he has untapped potential and unlimited bounciness. If he figures it out in Cincinnati while Jizzle James also breaks out as a sophomore, there might be six title contenders in the Big 12.

Big East Summary

6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Connecticut, 14. Creighton, 15. Marquette, 21. St. John's, 30. Villanova, 39. Xavier

Also Considered: Providence

Biggest Change: Twice as many teams!

St. John's, Seton Hall and Providence all had very legitimate arguments for inclusion in the 2024 NCAA tournament. In fact, they were three of the six teams (along with Oklahoma, Indiana State and Pittsburgh) who—despite appearing in at least half a dozen of the final projections on Bracket Matrix—did not make the dance.

The Big East ended up being a three-bid league, with No. 1 seed Connecticut, No. 2 seed Marquette and No. 3 seed Creighton each at least reaching the Sweet 16, going a combined 10-2.

Surely, that can't happen again, right?

It should still be the same big three up top. Even though each one did need to replace two of its three leading scorers from last season, the Big East figures to still run through the Huskies, Bluejays and Golden Eagles.

Rick Pitino could change that in his second year at the helm of the Red Storm, though. They did lose six of their seven leading scorers from last season, however, they hit the transfer portal in a huge way once again. If former 5-star recruit Vince Iwuchukwu (from USC) can tap into some of that potential in his new home, the Johnnies could be dynamite.

At Villanova, Kyle Neptune's third season as head coach might already be his last if they don't turn a corner. With leading scorer Eric Dixon back for one final go, though, they should be in good shape. La Salle transfer Jhamir Brickus figures to be the linchpin for a team that hasn't really had a point guard over the past two years.

Then there's Xavier, with what it hopes is the triumphant return of Zach Freemantle. He missed all of last season following multiple foot surgeries, but he averaged 15.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG and 2.9 APG in 2022-23. If he can be that big man again while Sean Miller does his Souley Boum/Quincy Olivari thing by turning up-transfers Dante Maddox Jr. (from Toledo) and/or Marcus Foster (from Furman) into a national star, game on. That duo combined for 27 points in Xavier's exhibition win over Dayton, which is a promising start for sure.

Big Ten Summary

10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 12. Purdue, 17. Illinois, 18. UCLA, 24. Indiana, 25. Michigan State, 34. Ohio State, 35. Oregon, 36. Michigan, 41. Maryland, 43. Rutgers

Also Considered: Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, USC

Biggest Change: How much time do you have?

For starters, you've got the four new additions in Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington.

Of the bunch, expectations are definitely highest for the Bruins. Last year was quite the sub-.500 struggle for what was one of the youngest teams in the country. However, with the exception of Adem Bona, they've got most of the gang back together and added a loaded crop of six transfers who combined to average 75 points per game in 2023-24. Scoring shouldn't be as hard to come by this year.

Along with an expected bounce back from that blue blood program, Indiana is looking mighty stout after vulturing the corpse of the Pac-12 with the additions of Oumar Ballo (Arizona), Myles Rice (Washington State) and Kanaan Carlyle (Stanford). All three started in last week's exhibition game against Tennessee, alongside returnees Mackenzie Mgbako and Malik Reneau. Freshman Bryson Tucker and grad senior Trey Galloway didn't play in that game due to injuries, but they'll be major factors, too, for what ought to be Indiana's best season in over a decade.

Purdue still appears to be the top dog, but much less convincingly than it has been over the past two years. Losing two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey will do that, but the Boilermakers still have the backcourt duo of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, as well as both a 7'2" center and a 7'4" center, which Matt Painter evidently grows in a lab somewhere.

The most excitement lies with Rutgers, where the Scarlet Knights have two of the best freshmen in the nation in Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper. Projections are, understandably, all over the map here, ranging from top 20 on Torvik to barely top 75 on Haslametrics. The net result, though: Last Team In. Got to say, I wouldn't mind needing to pay a little extra attention to a bubbly Rutgers throughout the season. I'm going to be watching as many of their games as possible regardless.

But the biggest Big Ten story is likely to be rampant mediocrity. All 18 teams in this league open the season ranked in the Nos. 10-79 range on each of KenPom, Haslametrics and Torvik. Though we didn't list Minnesota, Penn State or Washington above, every team in this conference is a threat to make the NCAA tournament, but none of them look like a serious threat to win the whole shebang. Maybe they'll all go 10-10 in league play.

SEC Summary

10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Alabama, 10. Tennessee, 13. Auburn, 16. Texas, 19. Texas A&M, 20. Kentucky, 26. Florida, 28. Arkansas, 33. Mississippi State, 40. Ole Miss

Also Considered: Georgia, Oklahoma, LSU

Biggest Change: Arkansas replaces South Carolina

Save for Texas joining the party from the Big 12, this projection is mostly just minor adjustments from what the SEC accomplished seven months ago.

Alabama and Texas A&M are projected a few seed lines higher than where they landed last year. Kentucky and Tennessee are slightly lower. Auburn, Florida and Mississippi State are almost exactly in the same spot.

And then there's Arkansas in the mid-20s, taking the place of South Carolina.

On the Razorbacks front, the optimism is readily apparent: they pilfered John Calipari from Kentucky and completely revamped their roster in the process.

They added four Wildcats in D.J. Wagner, Zvonimir "Big Z" Ivišić, Adou Thiero and Kareem Watkins. They picked up veteran big man Jonas Aidoo from Tennessee and veteran lead guard Johnell Davis from Florida Atlantic. And, per always when you've got coach Cal, there's a trio of tantalizing freshmen in Boogie Fland, Karter Knox and Billy Richmond. Throw in convincing Trevon Brazile to stick around and the Hogs are stacked. A No. 7 seed is very much on the low end of what they could accomplish.

As far as South Carolina goes, the metrics never did much care for the Gamecocks, did they? So, that's nothing new. Even as they earned a No. 6 seed last year, KenPom didn't for one day have them rated better than 44th in the nation.

But while getting Collin Murray-Boyles back for a second season was quite the accomplishment for Lamont Paris and his staff, losing all of Meechie Johnson, B.J. Mack and Ta'Lon Cooper leaves South Carolina projected to finish behind everyone in the SEC except for Vanderbilt.

Will it actually be that bad? Or will the additions of top-50 frosh Cam Scott and within-the-SEC transfers Nick Pringle (from Alabama) and Jordan Butler (from Missouri) help them exceed expectations once again?

The real key is probably Jamarii Thomas, who averaged 16.9 points, 3.8 assists and 2.1 steals per game last season at Norfolk State. If he can even remotely do to SEC competition what he routinely did in the MEAC, the Gamecocks could be a contender.

Mid-Major Summary (AAC, A-10, MVC, MWC and WCC)

7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. Gonzaga, 31. Saint Mary's, 37. Memphis, 44. Boise State, 46. VCU, 47. UAB, 48. Bradley

Also Considered: Dayton, San Diego State, Saint Louis, Utah State, New Mexico

Biggest Change: I'm so sorry, Mountain West

Last year's six-bid Mountain West was an incredible ride.

Maybe not so much in the NCAA tournament, where they went a collective 4-6 with only San Diego State surviving the opening weekend (before losing by 30 to UConn), but the journey to Selection Sunday was incredible. Just late-night banger after late-night banger before a conference tournament that, naturally, featured multiple games going to overtime.

Save for maybe 2012-13, it was easily the best season in the history of the MWC.

Sadly, a repeat performance does not appear to be in the cards.

In fact, after sending at least four teams dancing in each of the past three seasons, the preseason metrics suggest the Mountain West could be headed for a rare one-bid year.

KenPom's highest-rated MWC team is Boise State at 45th.

For Haslametrics, it's Utah State at 48th.

And for Torvik, it's New Mexico at 55th.

All three should at least be bubble teams, though. Same goes for San Diego State. So even though we only have one team in here, it would be rather surprising if they don't have at least two teams in when it matters.

It's just tough to say at this point who those teams will be.

Such is life, though, when only one of the league's 10 leading scorers from last season—Boise State's Tyson Degenhart—is back in the fold.

Other 21 Leagues Summary

21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 45. Grand Canyon, 49. McNeese, 50. Princeton, 51. UC Irvine, 52. Ohio, 53. Vermont, 54. High Point, 55. Arkansas State, 56. Louisiana Tech, 57. Towson, 58. Samford, 59. Lipscomb, 60. Milwaukee, 61. Montana, 62. Quinnipiac, 63. Kansas City, 64. Howard, 65. Colgate, 66. Little Rock, 67. Grambling, 68. Central Connecticut

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Change: Princeton is back, and should be dangerous

Though the Ivy League has never had a multi-bid season in the history of the NCAA tournament, its lone representative in the dance has been a pretty consistent threat to do some damage over the past 15 years.

Cornell crashed the Sweet 16 in 2010. Harvard pulled off first-round upsets in each of 2013 and 2014. Yale stunned Baylor in 2016 and Auburn in 2024. And Princeton made it to the Sweet 16 two years ago.

All told, the league has gone 6-7 in the first round since 2010, with three of those losses coming by a two-point margin. Two of the other losses were decided by single digits, too, as only 2018 Penn (as a No. 16 seed) and 2022 Yale (as a No. 14 seed) failed to at least make things interesting.

But this year's Princeton squad may well be the most dangerous that the Ivy League has produced since the Tigers went 27-2 in 1997-98, earning a No. 5 seed and finishing at No. 8 in that year's AP poll.

Princeton was already quite good last year, building on its 2023 tournament run with a 24-3 record during the regular season. However, a loss to sub-.500 Brown in the Ivy League tournament semifinals left the Tigers to settle for a spot in the NIT.

That didn't sit well with leading scorers Xaivian Lee (17.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.7 APG) and Caden Pierce (16.6 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 3.2 APG), both of whom are back at Princeton for a junior season.

They did lose veteran starters Matt Allocco and Zach Martini, but how often in today's game does a team win better than 80 percent of its games played and then bring back more than 70 percent of its points scored?

Not often, and Lee and Pierce could be the two-pronged centerpiece of a contender that fares much better than this projected No. 50 overall seed.

Pro tip: Princeton's Dec. 21 showdown with Rutgers' dynamic duo of freshmen could be awesome.