The Milwaukee Bucks are off to a rough 1-3 start, and Giannis Antetokounmpo does not seem happy with his team's lack of identity.

Before the season, Antetokounmpo brought up the dreaded "T" word to Sam Amick of The Athletic. "Yeah, if we don't win a championship, I might get traded," he said.

Antetokounmpo may have said it in jest, but several teams around the NBA are closely watching the Bucks' All-Star forward and two-time Most Valuable Player. They'll be ready to pounce if Milwaukee stumbles. (The early results aren't promising in that regard.)

It would probably require Antetokounmpo to force a trade, but that isn't unusual when a star isn't happy with his team's direction. That's how Damian Lillard ended up in Milwaukee last summer. Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving have recently forced their relocation as well.

That's also why the Houston Rockets were relatively quiet this offseason. The franchise is eager to make a big move to bolster its chances as a contender in the Western Conference. Antetokounmpo, who's turning 30 in December, is the kind of all-in move Houston is seeking.

The following is a theoretical breakdown of what an Antetokounmpo-to-the-Rockets trade might look like, with some help from the Detroit Pistons, the only team left with significant cap room this season.

Full Trade Scenario

Bucks get:

• Reed Sheppard (from Rockets)
  
• Jabari Smith Jr. (from Rockets)
• Amen Thompson (from Rockets)
• Wendell Moore Jr. (from Pistons)
• 2027 first-rounder (higher of the Brooklyn Nets, Phoenix Suns or Rockets, from Rockets)
• 2028 first-round swap (from Rockets)
• 2029 first-rounder (highest of the Dallas Mavericks, Suns or Rockets, from Rockets)
• 2031 first-rounder (from Rockets)
• $29.4 million trade exception (Giannis Antetokounmpo)
• $2.1 million trade exception (AJ Green)

Rockets get:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (from Bucks)
• A.J. Green (from Bucks)
• Chris Livingston (from Bucks)
• Delon Wright (from Bucks)

Pistons get:

• Jeff Green (from Rockets)
• Jock Landale (from Rockets)
• MarJon Beauchamp (from Bucks)
• $7.24 million (from Rockets)
• 2026 protected second-rounder (from Rockets)
• 2026 second-rounder (second highest of the Philadelphia 76ers, Mavericks or Oklahoma City Thunder, from Rockets)
• 2026 second-rounder (lower of the LA Clippers and whichever is the highest from the Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat, from Rockets)

Note: The 2026 second-rounder from Houston will go to the Oklahoma City Thunder (instead of the Pistons) if the Rockets' first-round pick is in the 1-4 range.

The deal would be consummated on Dec. 15, after Wright's trade restriction lifts. The Pistons would first waive Paul Reed., who would leave a dead cap hit of about $2.5 million on Detroit's books.

Why the Milwaukee Bucks Do It

The Bucks wouldn't want to trade Antetokounmpo, who is under contract through 2028 (including a 2027-28 player option). Milwaukee can simply refuse, but star players tend to get their way in the NBA.

If Antetokounmpo chose to play the villain, it could push the Bucks to accept their situation with clear eyes. The roster has aged. Defensively, the team isn't what it was since trading Jrue Holiday to acquire Lillard. Khris Middleton will likely pick up his $34 million player option for next season. If Bobby Portis takes his player option ($13.4 million) or opts out and demands a raise, the Bucks will continue to pay luxury taxes in 2025-26 for the sixth straight year.

Meanwhile, the product on the floor has diminished, and the front office hasn't been able to find young, impact players to rejuvenate the lineup. Losing Antetokounmpo sounds like accepting a rebuild, but the team is currently middling in the East, and the return from the Rockets adds valuable depth to build around.

Sheppard, the No. 3 overall pick in June's draft, was projected by NBA general managers to be Rookie of the Year and the best player of his class in five years, per John Schuhmann of NBA.com. Currently, Sheppard is buried behind Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green in Houston. He hasn't had the chance to show what he can do in a more prominent role.

Thompson (the No. 4 overall pick in 2023) is a super athletic 6'7" point forward. At worst, Smith (the No. 3 overall pick in 2022) is a high-level role player. He could also thrive in a more significant role in a new environment.

The Bucks would also get plenty of draft compensation with three unprotected first-round picks and a first-round swap. They would immediately fall under the luxury tax, shedding a projected penalty of $74.8 million (enabling them to get a tax kickback in the $16-17 million range). Including the prorated drop in payroll, that's a savings of about $110 million, minus $1.3 million from Milwaukee to Antetokounmpo as a trade bonus.

The Bucks also send Wright, Green and Livingston to Houston. Detroit has yet to pick up Moore's fourth-year rookie-scale option, so he would likely be an expiring contract for the Bucks (who also send Beauchamp to Detroit).

Milwaukee finishes the deal with an open roster spot, a first-apron hard cap and about $3.7 million in flexibility under the luxury tax.

Losing one of the NBA's best players would be a bitter pill, but the Bucks appear stagnant for this year and next based on their current obligations. This wouldn't be a hard reset that would drop them to the bottom of the standings. It would keep them semi-competitive while adding significant future considerations and a massive trade exception best saved for the 2025 offseason.

Why the Houston Rockets Do It

The why is straightforward: Houston adds an NBA superstar without giving up its most productive players. With that said, it does what so many teams have done in recent years: part with just about everything not nailed down for a blockbuster acquisition.

Last offseason, Houston pivoted from rebuilding in an effort to compete, adding veterans like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. After a much-improved run (41 wins), the team fell short of a play-in spot by five games. The Rockets, who had hoped Donovan Mitchell wouldn't extend with the Cleveland Cavaliers, would now turn to Antetokounmpo as their new franchise player.

Houston recently signed Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün to extensions, rounding out a potent starting five with Tari Eason, Cam Whitmore, Steven Adams and Wright off the bench. The price for Antetokounmpo is high, but the Rockets would suddenly have great potential in the Western Conference.

With one roster spot to fill, Houston could use the $5.2 million taxpayer mid-level exception to add another player via trade, but it may be more inclined to add a veteran at the minimum (perhaps for a low-minute center like Bismack Biyombo or JaVale McGee). It's too bad Boban Marjanović has already signed overseas with Fenerbahçe Beko.

Houston would undoubtedly try to include one fewer first-round pick in this deal, but that's up to the teams to formally negotiate. With the three second-rounders and cash going to Detroit, perhaps there's some wiggle room to entice the Pistons into giving up Malik Beasley for Jae'Sean Tate, which would help the Rockets avoid the luxury tax.

The next step in 2025 would be to decline VanVleet's $44.9 million team option to re-sign him to a longer deal at a much lower number (perhaps $73 million over four seasons, with about $50 million guaranteed). Few teams will have cap room next July (primarily the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards) and are unlikely to target an over-30 point guard. That would help Houston stay below the second apron, which is projected to be $207.8 million in 2025-26.

Why the Detroit Pistons Do It

The Pistons are on the clock with Reed, who has yet to be a part of their regular rotation. His $7.7 million salary will become fully guaranteed if they don't cut him by January 10. Without him, Detroit would dip below the league's minimum team salary of $126.5 million, which it can only do for a single day without repercussions.

Detroit has the flexibility to sign other players. Still, a decision on Reed will likely come before that January deadline unless he gets into head coach JB Bickerstaff's good graces between now and then.

The Pistons will solicit their cap room for the greatest return, but this deal with Houston and Milwaukee preserves some flexibility while giving the franchise a look at Landale and Beachamp. Green is a capable veteran, but more importantly, Detroit would have several expiring contracts to use in trades instead of cap space (Tim Hardaway Jr., Beasley, Landale, Green and possibly Beauchamp as well).

For their trouble, the Pistons get most of the incoming salary paid for by the Rockets (factoring in Moore and most of Reed's salary coming off the books). Detroit goes from zero second-rounders to three in 2026.

Beasley has shot well for Detroit, which is a skill the team desperately needs, but the Rockets could try to push for the swap with Tate. If so, Tate is a hard-working, defensive-minded wing who could help the Pistons, but not as a shooter. He'd replace Beasley as an expiring contract.

Since the Pistons would finish the three-way deal still under the cap, none of the players would come with additional trade restrictions. Detroit could flip them again closer to the trade deadline.

It's less of a blockbuster for the Pistons than the Rockets and Bucks, but Detroit made similar moves with its financial flexibility earlier in the summer to profit as a facilitator.

Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X/Twitter @EricPincus.