Alexis Lafreniére's seven-year contract extension with the Rangers is, from a bird's-eye view, business as usual. That's usually how these things go for former No. 1 overall picks, especially those who were the runaway consensus player in their draft year like the Quebec-born winger was. The player enters the NHL around 18 years old, and eventually, his drafting team eagerly locks him up to a long-term contract at some point in his early 20s.

However, the path to this moment was not so customary. Lafreniére's first few seasons in the NHL were objectively disappointing. He showed moments of excellence but struggled to establish himself as a consistent offensive presence, finding himself in the bottom six or even the press box far more often than on a scoring line.

Whereas most top picks are immediately locked up the second their entry-level contract expires, Lafreniére obtained a two-year bridge deal for less than $2.5 million annually—a reflection of his underwhelming output and a future in New York that wasn't necessarily guaranteed.

Even Lafreniére's breakout season in 2023-24—in which he totaled 57 points—doesn't immediately match up with his new contract. Yet by evaluations both statistical and visual, few people doubt the Rangers' decision to hand the 23-year-old a blockbuster contract.

Here's a look at how Lafreniére found his game in New York, why he will undoubtedly justify the contract, and what the salary-cap implications are for the Rangers.

Contextualizing Lafreniére's First NHL Seasons

The circumstances under which Lafreniére joined the Rangers are truly unique. The COVID pandemic that prematurely ended the 2019-20 NHL regular season and forced an unprecedented round of play-in series created a bizarre scenario in which the NHL held multiple draft lotteries. In short, the Rangers won the Draft Lottery with 3 percent odds.

An unorthodox situation made for an unorthodox start to Lafreniére's career. The No. 1 overall pick typically goes to a team that is bad and embarking on a rebuild. That means a lot of opportunities to play a lot of minutes in a low-stakes environment. What's more, Lafreniére was joining a roster that already had Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, and Pavel Buchnevich on the wings. Good luck beating that trio out for ice time as a teenager.

A third-line checking role forced Lafreniére to play a style antithetical to his skillset. He also did not receive an ideal amount of ice time for his development. A mismatch with head coaches David Quinn and Gerard Gallant did not help matters. Gallant, who philosophically prefers veteran players, kept Lafreniére in the bottom six by arguing that the winger was not comfortable on the right wing and that his job was winning rather than development.

Lafreniére isn't without blame for his early struggles, but he wasn't put in a position to succeed.

Despite that, there were signs that Lafreniére was primed to eventually break out. In his first three NHL seasons, the skilled winger ranked second on the team in even-strength goals. He ranked 61st in the entire NHL over that span, despite limited ice time. There was a credible argument that he would thrive in a consistent role on a scoring line.

Finding His Groove

The Rangers replaced Gallant with Peter Laviolette for the 2023-24 season. The team benefitted as a whole, but no player benefitted more than Lafreniére. Laviolette did move him to the right wing permanently and stuck him on a line with Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck—an unabashed scoring line that would play a lot of minutes.

The line was one of the most dominant in the NHL last season, both by expected goals and actual goal output, with those trends continuing this season. Over the two seasons, Lafreniére ranks 18th in the NHL in both goals and points at five-on-five.

What makes the trio so effective is their exploitation of east-west movements. Moving the puck across the slot to the weak side and forcing the goaltender to move is the most consistently effective way to create goals. Because teams protect the middle lane, it is difficult to carry the puck or thread passes through such a defensive presence. But it's exactly the type of play that Lafreniére excels at, and Panarin is truly elite in this dynamic.

Plus, against Gallant's best judgment, playing Lafreniére on the right wing makes him all the more effective. As a left-handed shot, Lafreniére is ideally suited to receive pucks across the slot while already in a shooting posture. Or, he can carry the puck from his off-wing across the slot and immediately shoot. It's the preferable setup for a player of his abilities to make the most of his skill and generate—and finish—scoring chances.

As a pure offensive generator, this line has bad moments defensively, with Lafreniére culpable. It's not what you want, but there is beauty in that imperfection. The Rangers' coaching staff is maximizing his strengths rather than worrying about his weaknesses. Yes, Lafreniére (and his linemates) will cost the team some goals, but they will score far more. He can mitigate the problems as he continues to develop, but Laviolette is ultimately letting Lafreniére spread his wings and take risks.

What's Next for Lafreniére and the Rangers

For Lafreniére to live up to the contract, he'll need to produce more offense. As demonstrated, he's already doing so at a high level at five-on-five. The next obvious step is for him to get a prominent power-play role. There's no doubting his ability to do so, but he remains stuck in a depth chart quagmire. The Rangers' top power-play unit has been among the best in the NHL the last few seasons, and there are no obvious players to remove. His chance will come eventually, but he will have to wait.

Meanwhile, the hefty investment in Lafreniére means the Rangers are now tight for cap space for the next two seasons with other key players to lock up, chiefly Igor Shesterkin.

The roster is also somewhat imbalanced with Lafreniére, Panarin, and Kreider. The Rangers attribute a combined $25.6 million cap hit to three wingers next season, according to Puckpedia.

The Rangers signed Lafreniére through his prime years. Panarin and Kreider come off the books in 2026 and will either be gone or re-signed for less. In the long term, Lafreniére's contract won't be a problem.

In the short term? Yeah, things will get tight. Contending teams have good players who need to be paid, and these problems inevitably arise. The Tampa Bay Lightning, Colorado Avalanche, and Boston Bruins have been navigating this type of austerity spending for years. It reflects well on the Rangers that they are soon joining that company.

The Rangers will have to be frugal down the roster, but they're already well set. They're integrating youth on entry-level contracts and have more in the pipeline. As other top teams have demonstrated, depth veterans will also sacrifice money to play for the best teams.

It's a far better alternative to the type of cycle the Rangers have often found themselves in, where they've handed young players short-term deals to keep their cap hits low in the short term and then paid for it in the long term, which begets the same problems all over again.

Lafreniére's long-term extension, conversely, is a big, upfront investment, which will give the team much more long-term wiggle room while ensuring a great player who is still developing will be around at a manageable cap hit for the entirety of his prime.