Southpaw pitcher Garrett Crochet had an incredible 2024 campaign for an otherwise absurdly terrible Chicago White Sox squad.
The No. 11 overall pick in the 2020 draft underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2022, missing all of that season and most of the following year. Between the pandemic, that lengthy recovery, and the fact he had been used exclusively in a relief role at the MLB level, Crochet logged a grand total of 88.2 innings across all levels from 2020-23.
As such, the White Sox were much more cautious with him in the second half of the season, last allowing him to pitch into the fifth inning on June 30.
Heading into the All-Star Break, though, Crochet was the most valuable pitcher in all of baseball, per FanGraphs, and would become the main character of trade deadline season, with everyone figuring the White Sox would sell high on one of the best trade chips out there.
But they didn't, so now we wait to see if this offseason will be a repeat of last when the White Sox traded away an ace-caliber pitcher (then Dylan Cease) with two years of arbitration eligibility remaining before free agency.
For Cease, they got veteran reliever Steven Wilson and three of San Diego's top 10 prospects—but none were ranked top 75 overall at the time of the trade. They'll likely be aiming a bit higher than that for Crochet, considering he is fresh off a great season while Cease had a rough go (4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) the year before he was dealt.
Crochet is also expected to cost less, projected by Spotrac for a $2.9M salary this season, compared to Cease's $8M rate in 2024.
Surely, more than half of the 30 MLB teams would love to acquire Crochet for the next two seasons, but we'll limit ourselves to eight hypothetical trade packages for today.
Baltimore Orioles
Current Projected Rotation: Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez, Cade Povich
Hypothetical Trade: Baltimore sends C/1B Samuel Basallo and RHP Alex Pham to Chicago White Sox for LHP Garrett Crochet
Between its stockpile of coveted prospects and its need for starting pitching, Baltimore was well-regarded as the favorite to acquire Crochet a few months ago. Even after trading for Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers, who are under team control through at least 2025, the Orioles should remain near the top of the list of teams pursuing Crochet this offseason.
However, the Orioles' farm system is nowhere near as deep as it was a year ago. They traded away the likes of DL Hall, Joey Ortiz, Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers while also having Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad "graduate" to the majors.
They do still have two extremely intriguing prospects in 1B/3B Coby Mayo and C/1B Samuel Basallo, both of whom may well enter 2025 rated among the top 10 prospects overall. Would they be willing to part with one of those young hitters to beef up their rotation? If not, it may be tough to get a Crochet-to-Baltimore deal across the finish line.
A platter of, say, RHP Chayce McDermott, OF Dylan Beavers and SS Griff O'Farrell might get the O's in the door, but other teams will likely offer more than that. An outright refusal to include either Mayo or Basallo in negotiations might create a real impasse.
Boston Red Sox
Current Projected Rotation: Lucas Giolito, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello, Cooper Criswell
Hypothetical Trade: Boston sends OF Roman Anthony, SS Franklin Arias and RHP David Sandlin to Chicago White Sox for LHP Garrett Crochet and OF Luis Robert Jr.
MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported from the GM Meetings on Thursday that the Red Sox are the team "a lot of people around here are looking at very carefully" with a Crochet trade.
Quinn Priester is also a candidate for Boston's Opening Day rotation after the Red Sox acquired him from Pittsburgh ahead of the July 30 trade deadline, but this isn't a team overflowing with irreplaceable arms.
Even if you assume Giolito will return at full strength after missing the 2024 campaign and assume Houck can double down on what was a breakthrough year, upgrading the rotation clearly needs to be Boston's primary offseason goal. The Red Sox have now ranked dead last in the AL East in total runs allowed in four of the past five years.
That's the bad news. The good news is that they are extremely well-equipped to upgrade that rotation via trade. They boast six of MLB's top 100 prospects, according to MLB.com, three of whom rank in the top 10 overall.
Better yet—for trade purposes, at any rate—all six of those top-100 prospects are position players, and Boston doesn't have anywhere obvious to put them. It already possesses what was the ninth-highest-scoring offense in 2024.
The Red Sox are slated to lose free agent outfielder Tyler O'Neill, but they're also presumably going to get more than 89 combined games out of Triston Casas and Trevor Story in 2025.
At most, they have one spot in the starting lineup that might be filled by one of their top prospects, either in the outfield or at second base, depending on where they'd rather play Ceddanne Rafaela moving forward.
Of course, that doesn't mean they will just give away a top-10 prospect or two. But it does make them more expendable, particularly if the White Sox are also willing to include Luis Robert Jr. in the deal. Those are the two things Boston most needs this offseason: a potential ace and a right-handed power hitter, preferably one who can play in the outfield.
Roman Anthony might be the top prospect in all of baseball heading into 2025, but he could become the foundational piece of Chicago's rebuild if both Crochet and Robert are available.
Chicago Cubs
Current Projected Rotation: Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks/Ben Brown
Hypothetical Trade: Chicago Cubs send OF Owen Caissie, SS Jefferson Rojas and RHP Brody McCullough to Chicago White Sox for LHP Garrett Crochet
It is debatable whether the White Sox would be more willing to help out a division rival or their crosstown rival, but there have been a few massive Cubs-White Sox swaps over the years.
The big one in the past decade involved the White Sox shipping Jose Quintana to the Cubs during the summer of 2017 in exchange for Dylan Cease, Eloy Jiménez, and two prospects who never made it. There was also the infamous (for the South Siders) trade in 1992 when the White Sox sent a struggling 23-year-old named Sammy Sosa to the Cubs for two years of a former MVP (George Bell) who gave them a negative 2.7 bWAR.
Well, let's see if we can't fire up another Windy City special.
The Cubs certainly have the prospect capital needed to make something happen here. While they don't have a top-20 overall prospect, the Baby Bears do have eight of MLB.com's top 100 prospects. If they're willing to flip two of them for Crochet, the Cubs would arguably supplant the Seattle Mariners as the top rotation heading into 2025.
There are better aces out there than Steele/Crochet, but Imanaga as a No. 3 starter, Taillon at No. 4 and Assad as the fifth cog in the machine? That would make them the team to beat in the NL Central if they aren't already.
Cleveland Guardians
Current Projected Rotation: Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie
Hypothetical Trade: Cleveland sends OF Jaison Chourio, 1B Ralphy Velazquez and RHP Braylon Doughty to Chicago White Sox for LHP Garrett Crochet
The Guardians will surely be looking to re-sign free agent Matthew Boyd after he gave them 11 starts (eight regular season, three postseason) with a 2.27 ERA. However, that move would merely be the start of what should be a busy offseason revamping the starting rotation.
Of course, the Guardians are perennially hamstrung by budget constraints, so we can already safely assume they won't be solving their problems via Corbin Burnes or Blake Snell.
Per Cots' Baseball Contracts, Cleveland has ranked 23rd or lower in Opening Day payroll in 17 of the past 22 seasons, and it has neither started nor finished a season in the top 14 in spending since last doing so in 2002. Moreover, it has been nearly two decades since the Guardians last invested more than $5 million in a starting pitcher in free agency—most recently in the form of Paul Byrd in 2006.
For the Guardians to come up with any external solutions to their starting rotation, it almost has to happen via trade.
Again, the White Sox might be reluctant to help out a division rival. However, why should they care if they improve the Guardians' chances of winning the AL Central in 2025 and 2026 when they have no realistic hope of contending in either of those years?
It might be a bit sickening to face Crochet 4-8 times over the next two seasons, but that's a small price to pay for what could be three key pieces of the puzzle 3-4 years from now.
New York Mets
Current Projected Rotation: Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill...uhh...
Hypothetical Trade: New York sends SS/OF Jett Williams, RHP Nolan McLean and RHP Jonah Tong to Chicago White Sox for LHP Garrett Crochet
Three pitchers logged at least 125 innings for the Mets this season. All three—Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana—are about to become free agents.
Christian Scott made his MLB debut this season and lasted nine starts before needing Tommy John surgery. It's unlikely he will be available at all in 2025.
They traded for Paul Blackburn, who has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining. However, he underwent a procedure last week to repair a spinal fluid leak, and there's no telling if he'll be available in the spring—if the Mets weren't already planning on non-tendering him anyway.
Throw in the fact that Senga faced a combined total of 49 batters between the regular season and postseason this year, and the Mets sure could use a few pitchers.
If they don't land Juan Soto, they have more than enough room in their seemingly limitless budget to go get one (or several) of the best free-agent pitchers available. But they don't need to spend their way to a good rotation. They could leverage a few of their top prospects to add a seven-figure ace instead of a nine-figure one.
2022 first-round pick Jett Williams would be the main attraction going the other way in this one. A four-month recovery from wrist surgery paused his meteoric rise to the big leagues, but the still-not-quite 21-year-old made it back and had a six-game cup of coffee at the Triple-A level in late September, posting a 1.079 OPS there. He could be ready for Opening Day in 2025, but he probably needs to go to a team that doesn't already have Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo for that to happen.
Philadelphia Phillies
Current Projected Rotation: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker
Hypothetical Trade: Philadelphia sends SS Aidan Miller, C Eduardo Tait and RHP Seth Johnson to Chicago White Sox for LHP Garrett Crochet
Buried near the bottom of his 2024 MLB awards column, USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported on September 29: "White Sox starter Garrett Crochet says he's interested in signing a long-term contract extension, but the White Sox still fully intend to trade him this winter, with the Philadelphia Phillies among the teams expressing interest."
Nightengale's report came a few days after ESPN's Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers published a depressing timeline of Chicago's 2024 season, which included a note that the Phillies turned down a trade proposal from the White Sox because they did not want to part with top pitching prospect Andrew Painter.
If they could get Crochet without giving up their 2021 first-round pick, what a coup that would be.
Because of Tommy John surgery, Painter missed the entirety of both the 2023 and 2024 seasons before finally getting back on the mound for a few innings in the Arizona Fall League.
There's optimism he'll be able to contribute at the MLB level in 2025, but almost certainly not in a "pitches enough innings to qualify for an ERA title" capacity. That will likely need to wait until the following season when he would presumably take Ranger Suárez's spot in the rotation, as he has just one year left before free agency.
So, no, trading for Crochet wouldn't block Painter's path to the mound. The current White Sox ace would replace Walker after his disastrous showing in 2024—a move that Philadelphia would love to make on the cheap, considering it already has the highest payroll for 2025. And with the aforementioned projected salary of $2.9 million in arbitration, Crochet fits the bill.
2023 first-round pick Aidan Miller is a big ask as the biggest chip heading back to the White Sox. If the Phillies can add an All-Star pitcher without moving Painter or CF Justin Crawford, though, they'd probably do it.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Current Projected Rotation: Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter
Hypothetical Trade: Pittsburgh sends RHP Braxton Ashcraft, SS Mitch Jebb and RHP Levi Sterling to Chicago White Sox for LHP Garrett Crochet
Admittedly, this one is rooted more so in wishful thinking than reality.
The Pirates have three touted starting pitcher prospects—Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft and Tom Harrington—who could be in the mix for a spot on the 2025 Opening Day roster after ending the regular season with Triple-A Indianapolis.
Given how well things went this season with Skenes and Jones as rookies in the rotation, they might be content just to let it ride with what they have and hope at least one of those three hits the ground running in 2025 while David Bednar bounces back for a much less disastrous year as the closer.
But maybe they take a big swing for a change.
After missing the playoffs by a margin of at least seven games for the ninth consecutive year, maybe the Pirates go get the guy who should have started the 2024 All-Star Game for the American League to join forces with the guy who started the 2024 All-Star Game for the National League.
And maybe by combining Crochet with Skenes, Keller and Jones, the Pirates can get back to routinely mowing down the competition like they did in 2013 and 2015 with a rotation led by Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett and Charlie Morton.
Should Pittsburgh be the one giving up three prospects for a major leaguer instead of the other way around for a change, here's hoping it works out better than that time they sent Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz to Tampa Bay for Chris Archer.
San Diego Padres
Current Projected Rotation: Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease, Michael King, Matt Waldron, Randy Vásquez/Jhony Brito
Hypothetical Trade: San Diego sends C Ethan Salas, LHP Kash Mayfield and OF Kavares Tears to Chicago White Sox for LHP Garrett Crochet
So, the White Sox sending an All-Star pitcher with two years of team control to the Padres? Didn't we just do this like, seven months ago?
Why, yes, we did.
But with Musgrove down for the count following his recent Tommy John surgery and both Cease and King about to enter their final pre-free agency season, San Diego kind of desperately needs another not-that-expensive, multi-year option for its starting rotation to remain a top contender in 2025 and beyond.
Unfortunately for the Pads, a repeat of the Cease trade in March, in which they flipped Chicago their fifth, seventh, and eighth-best prospects at the time, wouldn't cut it here. Their farm system is a far cry from what it was shortly after trading Juan Soto.
Salas is arguably the Padres' top prospect, Mayfield is No. 3 and Tears is just outside the top five. All three are nowhere close to ready for the big leagues, though, and 2025 might be the last season before San Diego's window as a serious World Series threat closes in a hurry.
In addition to Cease and King hitting free agency next offseason, they're also slated to lose Luis Arraez. Robert Suarez will probably leave via an opt-out clause in his contract, Darvish turns 39 next summer, and both Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts will be officially into their mid-30s. Each will turn 33 before the 2025 postseason begins.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill aren't going anywhere any time soon, but the Padres have a lot to figure out between now and Opening Day in 2026. Until that dilemma arrives, though, they might as well make the most of next season by going back to the White Sox for another ace.
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