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Ranking Best Landing Spot Fits for Potential WNBA No. 1 Pick Paige Bueckers

Nekias Duncan

A historic WNBA season has finally come to an end, setting to stage for what could be one of the more interesting offseasons the league has had.

There will be plenty of noise surrounding this year's expansion draft for the newly formed Golden State Valkyries, as well as a deep free-agency pool that could flip the league on its head, with many expecting a bevy of one-year deals to be handed out.

But before we get there, we have to get through the draft lottery.

Last year's rookie class was historic, headlined by Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese. In a vacuum, it should be difficult for this year's version to replicate that kind of early on and off-court impact. But things don't exist in a vacuum, and UConn star Paige Bueckers is the kind of talent, personality and world traveler (kidding!) who can help push the WNBA to another level.

The senior guard is coming off a campaign in which she averaged an efficient 21.9 points—58.8 percent on 2s, 41.6 percent on 3s, 83.4 percent from the line—while grabbing 5.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists (which undersells her passing ability), 2.2 steals and 1.4 blocks. She projects as an elite two-way guard prospect, one who can fill virtually any role you ask of her offensively (keeping an eye on her scoring aggression this year) while acting as a disruptor on the other end.

Barring more health complications, Bueckers will likely be the top pick of the 2025 WNBA draft, which is why we're here. We'll rank three of the four teams in the lottery—the Los Angeles Sparks, Dallas Wings, and Washington Mystics—as landing spots for Bueckers.

(While the Chicago Sky are also in this year's lottery, they can't land the top pick. As part of the Marina Mabrey trade that initially brought her to Chicago in 2023 [details here], the Sky owe the Wings a first-round pick swap.)

For clarity's sake: this isn't a ranking of where I personally want Bueckers to go, but rather an examination of each team's current roster and asset pool in relation to their ability to set her up for short and long-term success.

3. Dallas Wings

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Lottery Odds: 45.4 percent (their pick plus the Sky's odds, due to the pick swap)

Projected Cap Space: $611,573

Biggest Selling Point: Arike Ogunbowale (and Satou Sabally, hopefully!)

The Dallas Wings represent the likeliest landing spot for Bueckers, by the math. Unfortunately for her, they're also the team with the most in flux.

Just last week, they parted ways with head coach Latricia Trammell after just two seasons—the latter being a 9-31 campaign riddled with injuries. I still don't understand how Trammell became the scapegoat, but that's clearly above my pay grade.

Anyway.

There's no head coach right now, and the team plans to hire a new general manager. Looming for the Wings is a free-agency period in which they're guaranteed to lose veteran forward Natasha Howard, and there have been more rumblings about a Satou Sabally departure than you'd expect, especially considering the Wings still have the ability to use the core designation (the WNBA's version of the franchise tag) on her.

The prospect of Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale playing together is fascinating, though. Ogunbowale is one of the league's best scorers, and she has quietly grown as a playmaker every season. While she's willing to shoulder an absurd offensive load, she shouldn't have to.

Bueckers would give Ogunbowale a backcourt partner she could trust to shoulder some of that burden and make her life easier. Per Second Spectrum, Ogunbowale ran more pick-and-rolls (805) than she received off-ball screens (624); and a bulk of those off-ball actions were setups to ball screens. Adding Bueckers to the fold could lead to more balance on that front—while also giving the Wings a guard that teams won't feel empowered to ignore on the perimeter.

And for Bueckers, if you're at all concerned about her scoring aggression (within the lens of becoming a true franchise centerpiece), pairing her with a bucket-getter like Ogunbowale would alleviate the need for her to become that. She could slot in and continue to thrive as an off-ball threat, playing off the gravity that Ogunbowale provides.

If Sabally does in fact return, multiple years of the Bueckers-Ogunbowale-Sabally trio sounds like a lot of fun—and incredibly irritating for opposing teams to deal with.

2. Los Angeles Sparks

Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Lottery Odds: 44.2 percent

Projected Max Cap Space: $345,930

Biggest Selling Point: Last year's draft class

It's safe to say the Sparks nailed their selections last year.

Cameron Brink looked like an early Defensive Player of the Year candidate before ultimately suffering a torn ACL. There will be some natural angst about her recovery and timeline, but she projects to be special if healthy. I also enjoyed the driving and passing flashes Brink was able to display during her too-short rookie campaign.

Rickea Jackson's rookie year didn't get the level of buzz Clark or Reese received, but she was prolific in her own right. Jackson proved to be a walking mismatch as a scorer (13.4 points on 54.7 true shooting, above league-average) with room for more. She also intrigued as an interior passer and made meaningful strides as a defender as the season progressed (though there's still plenty of room for growth there).

Adding Bueckers would arguably give the Sparks the best, non-Fever young core in the league. It's hard not to be excited by the prospect of Bueckers and Brink defending ball screens together; Bueckers feeding Jackson or Brink for easy buckets; Bueckers playing off of Jackson or Brink for her own fruitful scoring attempts.

What removes some of the shine from their case is their instability in management. They recently parted ways with head coach Curt Miller—a move that caught most of the roster off guard—and are still on the hunt for a new leader.

Beyond that, the overall investment level in the Sparks has been below par, especially compared to what teams like the New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces, Seattle Storm and Phoenix Mercury have done over the past couple of years. Sparks co-owner and basketball legend Magic Johnson somewhat recently spoke about this dynamic, promising to get more involved moving forward.

Without knowing what that entails or, crucially, how effective or consistent that involvement will be, it's hard to place full confidence in the rebuild right now.

Top Spot: Washington Mystics

Jess Rapfogel for The Washington Post via Getty Images

Odds for Top Pick: 10.4 percent

Projected Max Cap Space: $523,340

Biggest Selling Point: Ready-made starting group

While the Mystics have the lowest odds of the three teams, they probably have the best roster context for Bueckers to slot into.

Brittney Sykes and Ariel Atkins are one of the best defensive duos we have in the league, and offer complementary skill sets offensively. While both can operate on and off the ball, Sykes thrives as a downhill attacker while Atkins is tough to deal with when she's flying off screens.

Adding Bueckers to that mix should create a cleaner hierarchy -- relieving the playmaking burden from those two and allowing them to attack tilted defenses in their own way. And because Sykes and Atkins can initiate in a pinch, you could still get the full breadth of the Bueckers off-ball package.

Up front, the Mystics have a versatile piece in Shakira Austin that projects as a two-way star if she could get and stay healthy. Her and Bueckers could vibe as pick-and-roll and handoff partners. With Austin's ability to handle, it's easy to see inverted actions between the two being fruitful.

Veteran big Stefanie Dolson was one of the brighter spots of the Mystics' injury-riddled campaign last season. She brought her usual value as a screener and handoff hub, but turned up the volume of her scoring aggression.

Dolson took 4.0 threes per contest last season, easily a career high, and drained a blistering 46.5 percent of them. I think Bueckers would enjoy running pick-and-pops with Dolson. I also think she'd appreciate the space that Dolson could carve out for her off the ball.

(It's also worth noting Bueckers and versatile forward Aaliyah Edwards would reunite. They already have chemistry on both ends from their time at UConn. Any injury to Dolson or Austin would likely lead to Edwards starting up front.)

Frankly, a healthy Mystics group with Bueckers could make the playoffs in Year 1. Of course, that's if they keep this group together.

With the recent announcement of the Mystics parting ways with head coach Eric Thibault and general manager Mike Thibault, there's always the chance that a new vision could lead to drastic roster movement.

   

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