Shohei Ohtani Sarah Stier/Getty Images

MLB World Series 2024 Betting Guide for Yankees vs. Dodgers: Odds, Props and Picks

Kerry Miller

A World Series pitting Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers against Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees will be a ratings dream for Major League Baseball.

Call it "hate-watching" if it helps you sleep at night, but you know you'll be watching.

We all will be.

And with the correct bets on how this best-of-seven extravaganza plays out, it could be a money-making dream for you, too.

All odds within this betting guide are courtesy of DraftKings, current as of 10 p.m. ET Thursday night.

Series Winner / Correct Score

Juan Soto Jason Miller/Getty Images

To Win World Series: Los Angeles Dodgers -125; New York Yankees +105

Correct Score

If you really want to get wild with this, there's also a "Series Exact Outcome" option, where you can take those +400 odds for Dodgers in 6 and turn it into a wager with +3000 to +4500 odds by specifying which four games they're going to win.

You can get up to +10000 odds on some of the seven-game scenarios.

Those are the sucker bets, though. Because if you're seriously that confident about how the series will play out before it even begins, you might as well just plan on stacking your winnings from consecutive moneyline bets. Each game is basically going to be a coin flip, and you should get +12800 odds on seven straight coin flips, not +10000.

If you're not confident in who will win, but you do feel strongly about how long the series will last, you can also wager on how many games will be played in the World Series. For o/u 4.5 games, the over is -800 and the under is +600. Raise the bar to o/u 5.5 games, and it's -185 for the over and +155 for the under. And for o/u 6.5 games, a seven-game series would pay out +195, while the under is set at -240.

Long story short, the expectation is that the 2024 Fall Classic will last six games, with the Dodgers slightly favored.

But if it does go the distance, who knows? With both Dodgers in 7 and Yankees in 7 set at +475, that do-or-die game is going to be anyone's guess.

Pick: Dodgers in 7.

Most Valuable Player

Tommy Edman Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images

World Series MVP Odds

Who could have possibly guessed at the trade deadline—heck, two weeks ago—that Tommy Edman would be tied for the seventh-best odds of winning World Series MVP?

And who's ready to hear why that might be an incredible value bet?

Recovery from an offseason wrist surgery took much longer than originally anticipated, resulting in Edman not making his 2024 season debut until August 19. He didn't homer until his 20th game on September 10th. And he entered October in quite the funk, going 2-for-30 with just one RBI in his final nine games played.

Nevertheless, he was sensational in the NLCS, racking up 11 hits and 11 RBI with an OPS north of 1.000 while being named the MVP of that series.

He did have plenty of competition, as the Dodgers averaged nearly eight runs per game. Max Muncy, Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts each homered twice and each had an OPS north of 1.180, reaching base a combined total of 48 times. It's no surprise that each of those multiple-time All-Stars has better WS MVP odds than Edman.

However, did you know that in five of the past 16 World Series (31.3 percent), the MVP of that series was also an LCS MVP?

Or that of the 21 times that the National League has won the World Series since the implementation of LCS MVPs in 1977, there have been eight cases (38.1 percent) where the NLCS MVP was also the World Series MVP?

Jeremy Peña became the only player to pull off the ALCS/WS MVP double dip in 2022, but it happened on the NL side of the aisle with Corey Seager (2020), Madison Bumgarner (2014), David Freese (2011), Cole Hamels (2008), Liván Hernández (1997), Orel Hershiser (1988), Darrell Porter (1982) and Willie Stargell (1979).

Seager and Hershiser doing it in 2020 and 1988, respectively, also means that it happened in the last two times the Dodgers won it all.

Does any of that history mean anything for Edman?

Probably not really.

But he's red hot heading into the World Series and might be among the better +2500 flyers you'll ever find.

Series Total Runs

Giancarlo Stanton and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Nick Cammett/Getty Images

Series Total Runs

Any Team to Score XX Runs in Series?

In some ways, these are glorified "How many games will the World Series last?" bets. But for this particular showdown between star-studded offenses and highly questionable pitching staffs, these total runs props might be more popular than usual.

So, here are some facts on runs scored in recent World Series history.

- Each of the past 10 World Series has featured at least one game in which the teams combined to score at least 11 runs. The average run total for those 10 World Series was 51.9, however, each of the past three has had fewer than 50 runs.

- The most recent World Series with fewer than 40 total runs scored was also the most recent sweep, when San Francisco made quick work of Detroit in a 2012 World Series with just 22 total runs scored.

- The last three times the Dodgers made the World Series (2020, 2018 and 2017), the average run total was 55.3; the Yankees' lone appearance in the past two decades (2009) featured 59 total runs.

- At least 54 total runs were scored each of the past six times the World Series went the full seven games, with an average total of 65.8 runs in those series.

- Of the last six World Series that lasted exactly six games, however, the greatest run total was 59, with an average total of 46.2 runs.

Here's maybe the most pertinent one, though:

- Over the past 16 years, there have been just two cases of a World Series pairing of teams who scored at least 815 runs during the regular season—the 2019 Nationals-Astros series with 63 runs scored in seven games (9.0 R/G) and the 2009 Yankees-Phillies series with 59 runs scored in six games (9.8 R/G).

Not saying we should all be hammering the o57.5 and o31 lines here. But considering the Yankees scored at least five runs in their ALCS games while the Dodgers put up at least eight in each of their NLCS victories—bet on 1-0 shutouts at your own peril.

Most Hits Prop Bet

Gleyber Torres Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Series Player Most Hits

Which part of this list stands out as strangest to you?

Is it Edman as the favorite despite a .237 batting average during the regular season? He does have the most hits in this postseason between the two rosters and he is an intriguing mid-tier candidate for MVP after that remarkable showing in the NLCS. Favorite for most hits is a bit much, though.

Maybe it's Soto with merely the seventh-best odds, despite 11 total hits this postseason, a .368 batting average in the ALCS and the fact that he's about to get paid more than $500M for his ability to hit a baseball? You could make the case that his propensity for drawing walks hurts him in a hit-accumulating contest, but he does have two three-hit games already in these playoffs.

What's particularly messed up, though, is Torres at 13th on the list, getting even worse odds than Lux.

Torres did struggle to hit anything for most of the regular season, but he was great down the stretch with 10 multi-hit performances over his final 24 games. Only Shohei Ohtani (42) and Julio Rodríguez (38) had more hits than Torres' 35 from Sept. 2 through the end of the month. And he has since added four more outings with two or more hits in his six most recent postseason contests.

But, sure, let's give that hot leadoff hitter worse odds than Lux, who is dealing with a hip injury, whose last hit came in Game 4 of the NLDS, and who will almost certainly appear in the bottom third of the Dodgers lineup when he does play. That makes sense.

If Lux is +2200, don't sleep on Rizzo at +4000. He's playing with broken fingers, but he went 6-for-14 in the ALCS and has a .305 batting average in his career against active Dodgers pitchers, most notably going 9-for-21 with three home runs against Jack Flaherty.

Home Cooking or Road Warriors?

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Total Home Wins

Total Road Wins

Is home-field advantage even an advantage anymore?

In last year's World Series, four of the five games were won by the road team, the lone exception coming in extra-inning, walk-off fashion in Game 1.

In each of the three Octobers before that—including 2020, when the Dodgers were slated to be the "home" team for four of the seven games in Texas against the Rays—it was a 3-3 split of home wins and road wins. And that all came after the mind-blowing 2019 Fall Classic in which the road team won every single game.

At this point, it's 20 road wins vs. 10 home wins over the past five World Series.

During the 2024 regular season, the Dodgers and Yankees went a combined 96-66 at home and 96-66 on the road.

Thus far in the postseason, it's been the same deal, going a combined 7-3 at home and 7-3 on the road.

So, we're getting another six-game series with three home wins and three road wins, yeah?

Most Home Runs Prop Bet

Aaron Judge Nick Cammett/Getty Images

Series Player Most HRs

Corey Seager was the winning bet on this front last year. He hit 33 dingers during the regular season before tacking on three more during the World Series.

The year before that, it was Kyle Schwarber with three home runs in a losing effort following 46 during the regular season.

In 2021, Jorge Soler had the most World Series home runs after accumulating 27 during the regular season.

Let's skip over 2020 since only 60 games were played that year and jump back to 2019 when Juan Soto (34 regular-season HR) and Alex Bregman (41) tied for most in the World Series.

That's an average of 36.2 home runs during the regular season by the eventual World Series leaders in that department, which bodes well for MLB's HR champs Judge (58) and Ohtani (54) as the favorites, plus Soto (41) as another solid candidate.

Go back one more year, though, and you've got Steve Pearce randomly hitting three home runs between Games 4 and 5 after just 11 during the regular season. So who knows what'll transpire over the course of seven or fewer games?

The dream, of course, is a nice big eight-way tie between players with two home runs each, so just about everybody wins except for the books. For what it's worth, there was a four-way draw in 2016 and a five-way tie in 2014.

Four Rapid-Fire Series Props

Mookie Betts Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Any Extra Innings Game in Series (Yes -120, No -110)

The past two World Series wasted absolutely no time in cashing the Yes here with extra innings in Game 1. Before that, there had been 21 consecutive World Series games decided in regulation. But six of the past nine World Series have featured at least one extra-innings affair with a combined total of eight games that required a 10th frame. Moreover, the Yankees have yet to play in a game this October that was decided by more than three runs. A game with extra innings feels likely.

Any Game in Series to End in a Walk-Off (Yes +105, No -135)

Over the past decade, there have been a total of five walk-off wins in the World Series, one in each of five different Octobers. So, recent history suggests this is a coin flip. It's worth noting, though, that four of those five walk-offs were of the aforementioned extra-innings variety, meaning there has been just one ninth-inning walk-off in the past 10 years. (Coming in 2020, courtesy of Brett Phillips.)

Any Grand Slam in Series (Yes +195, No -260)

Per Baseball-Reference, there have been just 21 grand slams in World Series history and only four in the past quarter-century. Then again, there have already been four this postseason, so what's one or two more?

Any Triple in Series (Yes -160, No +125)

Shohei Ohtani (seven), Anthony Volpe (seven), Mookie Betts (five) and Juan Soto (four) each had at least four three-baggers during the regular season, and there has been at least one triple hit in 14 of the past 15 World Series.

Granted, we're talking 18 total triples hit over the course of those 15 Octobers, though, so they've been fortuitously spaced out to have occurred in 93.3 percent of Fall Classics since the last time the Yankees were involved. And it does bear mentioning that there were a grand total of 29 triples hit between Dodger Stadium (16) and Yankee Stadium (13) this season, compared to 50 just at Arizona's Chase Field.

Sure does seem like the Yes line should be more like -300, though, no?

Three 'Postseason Leader' Props

Shohei Ohtani Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Postseason HR Leader

For each of these three, you can go even deeper than this to some serious long shots, but we're just going to list the legitimate candidates.

What's fun here is that a current leader in each category has already been eliminated from the postseason. In this case, it's Vientos tied with Stanton with five home runs, and you could place a +700 bet that both Stanton will not hit another one and that no one will leapfrog him.

Come on, though. Stanton is going to hit another one, right? He has been mashing this October, and he has a career 1.171 OPS against active Dodgers pitchers. Considering he's already one ahead of Betts, is at least two ahead of everyone else and plausibly could pay out even if he doesn't hit any more dingers, it's kind of hard to believe you can still get him at +200 here.

Postseason Hits Leader

Vientos is once again the leader in the clubhouse here, but there's just no way that holds up. At least one player has recorded at least eight hits in each of the past 13 World Series, and there are quite a few quality hitters fewer than eight hits behind Vientos.

It's much more so a question of whether Edman can stay hot and maintain his lead of at least two hits over the non-Vientos portion of the field. Given we already talked about him having the shortest odds to lead all players in hits in the World Series, there's a good chance he lands atop this list.

Postseason Stolen Bases Leader

It's legitimately shocking that Ohtani has zero stolen bases thus far in October after he went for 12 in July, 15 in August and 16 in September. It's not due to lack of opportunity, either. By my count, there were nine cases—eight in the NLCS alone—where Ohtani was on first base with second base open, resulting in zero steals and one caught stealing. (That CS broke a streak of 36 consecutive successful SB attempts.)

Whether it's Ohtani or Dave Roberts making this decision, they've been reluctant to take the bat out of Betts' hands. (Ohtani's CS came with Freddie Freeman at the plate.)

If they remove that red light for the World Series, though, it's not that far-fetched to think he could still win this thing. After all, he did account for 59 of the 224 (26.4 percent) of the stolen bases these teams combined for during the regular season.

   

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