The NBA rookie-scale extension deadline elapsed Monday for the 2021 first-round draft class. Some had landed deals in early July (Cade Cunningham, Scottie Barnes, Franz Wagner and Evan Mobley), while others waited until the last second to get extended (Jalen Green, Alperen Şengün, Jalen Suggs, Moses Moody, Corey Kispert, Trey Murphy III and Jalen Johnson).

Those without a rookie-scale extension will be eligible for restricted free agency. How many will likely stay put, and will anyone get a large enough offer sheet to change teams in July?

Let's judge the risk of flight for the top 10 unextended rookie-scale restricted free agents in 2025 and predict what they might sign for.

Players are ranked according to expected contract length and size. Those predictions are semi-optimistic that the players in question have relatively productive seasons. If not, many of the borderline cases may drop down to the vet minimum.

10. Bones Hyland, Los Angeles Clippers

Contract Prediction: $10.0 million, two years (team flexibility on the second season)
Potential Landing Spots: Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Los Angeles Clippers

Evaluation: Bones Hyland doesn't appear to factor into the Clippers' long-term future. Assuming the team goes in a different direction, L.A. may not issue a qualifying offer to restrict Hyland.

If not, look for the 24-year-old to get a short-term offer at or near the bi-annual exception amount (projected to be $5.1 million). The Clippers could also try to sign-and-trade him, but that would require a three-year deal—though only the first needs to be fully guaranteed.

Hyland was a double-digit scorer with the Denver Nuggets before his trade to Los Angeles. Although his role shrank considerably last season, he's still a capable shooter when given the chance.

Without a productive season, he could drop down to the vet minimum.

Flight Risk Level: High

9. Davion Mitchell, Toronto Raptors

Contract Prediction: $10.0 million, two years (team flexibility on the second season)
Potential Landing Spots: Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 7ers, Washington Wizards, Toronto Raptors

Evaluation: Davion Mitchell is a feisty defensive guard who improved to 36.1 percent from three-point range last season with the Sacramento Kings. Since being traded to Toronto, Mitchell must continue improving as a shooter while backing up Immanuel Quickley.

If so, Mitchell could get a contract similar to Jose Alvarado's with the New Orleans Pelicans ($9 million/two years) or Jaden Hardy's with the Dallas Mavericks ($18 million/three years).

Flight Risk Level: Medium

8. Isaiah Jackson, Indiana Pacers

Contract Prediction: $11 million, two years (team flexibility on the second season)
Potential Landing Spots: Brooklyn Nets, Detroit Pistons, LA Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors, Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers

Evaluation: The Pacers need a backup center (and possibly a starter if pending unrestricted free agent Myles Turner doesn't return). Isaiah Jackson may fill those minutes this season, but as a 6'9", 205-pound energy guy without an outside shot, he's really a power forward—and Indiana has Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin and still needs to find time for Jarace Walker.

If Jackson is traded in season, he may find a team more willing to give him a long-term opportunity. If the Pacers move on, several teams could be interested, perhaps with a contract similar to that of Drew Eubanks, who got $9.8 million this summer from the Utah Jazz (via cap room).

Flight Risk Level: High

7. Quentin Grimes, Dallas Mavericks

Contract Prediction: $18 million, three years (team flexibility on the third season)
Potential Landing Spots: Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, Portland Trail Blazers, Washington Wizards, Dallas Mavericks

Evaluation: The Mavericks acquired Quentin Grimes from the Detroit Pistons in a move that may have been more about shedding Tim Hardaway Jr.'s contract than the 24-year-old guard. Still, Grimes was a productive player with the New York Knicks before they sent him to Detroit—especially during the 2022-23 season when he averaged 11.3 points per game while shooting 38.6 percent from three.

The Mavericks need to see that Grimes can return to form around better players like Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. Dallas needs to improve defensively, and Grimes can guard multiple positions. The team's recent veteran extension with the offensive-minded Hardy shouldn't get in the way of a potential marriage. Pencil in Grimes to return at a similar number to Hardy,

Flight Risk Level: Low

6. Day'Ron Sharpe, Brooklyn Nets

Contract Prediction: $22 million, three years (team flexibility on the third season)
Potential Landing Spots: Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Sacramento Kings, Toronto Raptors, Brooklyn Nets

Evaluation: After reinvesting in Nicolas Claxton this offseason, will the Nets pay to keep Day'Ron Sharpe as his long-term backup? Sharpe, who will miss the start of the season with a hamstring injury, is a big-bodied center at 6'9", 265 pounds, who collected 6.4 rebounds in just 15.1 minutes per game last season. At 22, he needs more opportunity to blossom, which may not come in Brooklyn.

The Nets are the only franchise projected to have substantial cap room next offseason ($56-$82 million, depending on which players they choose to keep, Dorian Finney-Smith's player option and their draft position).

The next-closest team would be the Washington Wizards in the $22 million range. Although others may be able to get to cap space via trade or other means, the Nets arguably have a monopoly on true flexibility this summer.

With that considered, if they want to keep Sharpe, they will. If not, he could get as much as a team's room mid-level exception, starting at a projected $8.8 million. Unless Claxton misses time, Sharpe may not get enough minutes to audition for more.

Flight Risk Level: Medium

5. Santi Aldama, Memphis Grizzlies

Contract Prediction: $40 million, three years
Potential Landing Spots: Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, Toronto Raptors, Memphis Grizzlies

Evaluation: Santi Aldama has legit height at 7'0" but is more of an offensive option than a defensive anchor. He can spread the floor but needs to improve his accuracy (34.9 percent from three last year).

He's played significant minutes for the injury-ravaged Grizzlies and could stay longer despite the crowded frontcourt (Zach Edey, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke).

Most teams potentially interested in Aldama would have up to the $14.1 million projected non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

Flight Risk Level: Low

4. Tre Mann, Charlotte Hornets

Contract Prediction: $44M, four years (team control on the fourth season)
Potential Landing Spots: Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets

Evaluation: Tre Mann played significant minutes with the Hornets last year with LaMelo Ball out with an injury. While the team didn't win many games, he averaged 11.9 points and 5.2 assists while shooting a respectable 36.4 percent from three.

If Mann can fit in alongside Ball, in addition to his primary role as the backup point guard, he may be rewarded with a longer deal in the range of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

Flight Risk Level: Low

3. Cam Thomas, Brooklyn Nets

Contract Prediction: $100 million, four years
Potential Landing Spots: Washington Wizards, Nets

Evaluation: Cam Thomas represents a significant jump in the rankings as the best true scorer on the list. Last year, Thomas averaged 22.5 points per game. With the Nets rebuilding, he may have a green light to score through most of the season (though that probably won't lead to many Brooklyn victories).

Thomas is set to be a restricted free agent with a $12.1 million cap hold. The Nets can give him a more significant deal after using their ample cap space. If the team chooses not to keep him, only the Wizards project a reasonable salary.

Otherwise, Thomas would be beholden to the Nets to sign and trade him to a viable destination—which is difficult to project with an entire season of basketball before that decision needs to be made.

It will be fascinating to watch how the Nets use their leverage as the only real team with money this summer. Thomas would probably seek $25 million-$30 million a season, but Brooklyn may be able to get him at a relative discount for a 20-plus-point scorer.

Flight Risk Level: Low

2. Josh Giddey, Chicago Bulls

Contract Prediction: $112 million, four years
Potential Landing Spots: Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards, Chicago Bulls

Evaluation: The Nets need a starting point guard, so they could make a run at Josh Giddey, driving up the price for the Bulls to keep him. If not, Chicago has the leverage and historically, the Bulls are more likely to use leverage to get a discount than other franchises that may focus more on finding a deal that makes both sides happy.

Giddey may seek a deal in the Quickley range ($32.5 million per season), which is probably too rich for the Bulls' preference.

That's why the guard needs to have a big year—enough to attract an offer from the Nets. Alternatively, the Wizards could be an option. While they don't project to have significant cap space, a trade or two may change that equation.

Flight Risk Level: Medium

1. Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors

Contract Prediction: $120 million, four years
Potential Landing Spots: Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards, Golden State Warriors

Evaluation: Jonathan Kuminga could earn similar money to Jalen Johnson with the Atlanta Hawks ($150 million/five years) and Trey Murphy III of the New Orleans Pelicans ($112 million/four years). The challenge is the same for any free agent seeking a contract this summer—almost no one has real money to offer.

The Nets could make an offer to Kuminga. They have the means and could do enough to scare off the Warriors. Golden State could keep or trade him before the deadline to a team that is more willing to compensate the 22-year-old forward next summer.

Flight Risk Level: Medium

Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X/Twitter @EricPincus.