In the second half of the season, headlines will naturally gravitate toward the College Football Playoff. It's only logical.

But there's a different angle I love monitoring.

Sure, winning a conference title or national championship is a terrific goal. For many teams around the Football Bowl Subdivision, though, even attaining bowl eligibility is a real accomplishment.

These upcoming weeks can be an emotion-filled roller coaster, especially at programs that probably need an upset to reach six victories—or, more agonizingly, don't really have space for an unexpected loss. South Carolina's recent win over Oklahoma is a good example of that razor-thin line.

Outlooks for bowl season can change in a flash.

The picks are subjective but based on official tie-ins while observing all selection processes and contingencies.

Group of 5 Games

Camellia Bowl (Dec. 14): Ohio vs. Louisiana
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18): South Florida vs. Marshall
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 19): Western Kentucky vs. Georgia Southern
Cure Bowl (Dec. 20): Connecticut vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 23): East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Buffalo vs. Colorado State
Hawai'i Bowl (Dec. 24): Liberty vs. Fresno State
68Ventures (Dec. 26): Western Michigan vs. James Madison
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 28): Jacksonville State vs. Texas State
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 28): Toledo vs. San Jose State
Bahamas Bowl (Jan. 4): Sam Houston vs. Northern Illinois

Trending Up: Western Michigan Broncos

Thanks to a 48-41 win at Buffalo last weekend, WMU is now in great position. Next up, the Broncos host winless Kent State. As long as they avoid a stunning upset, they'll be 5-2 with a month to play.

Trending Down: James Madison Dukes

Early in the season, JMU drew headlines with a high-scoring win at North Carolina before jumping to 4-0. Since then, however, the Dukes have fallen to Sun Belt foes Louisiana-Monroe and Georgia Southern. JMU becoming bowl-eligible is still the expectation, but it seems unlikely the Dukes will command one of the conference's top games.

G5 vs. P4 Matchups

Frisco Bowl (Dec. 17): North Texas vs. Oklahoma State
LA Bowl (Dec. 18): UNLV vs. Washington State
Detroit Bowl (Dec. 26): Eastern Michigan vs. Michigan State
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 27): Tulane vs. West Virginia
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Military Bowl (Dec. 28): Navy vs. Boston College
Independence Bowl (Dec. 28): Army vs. Utah

Trending Up: Washington State Cougars

Two factors are aiding Wazzu. First, the team is 6-1 with victories over Texas Tech, Washington, San Jose State and Fresno State. Second, former Pac-12 schools like Arizona, USC and Utah are trending the wrong direction. Wazzu already has a decent case for a bigger Pac-12 Legacy game—such as the Holiday or Las Vegas Bowl—especially because the Cougs have been to the Sun Bowl twice recently.

Trending Down: West Virginia Mountaineers

The story of WVU's season is straightforward: Against the best teams, the Mountaineers have struggled. So far, they've played four programs that are currently ranked and lost in each one. The rest of the slate is manageable, but 3-4 WVU really needs to avoid falling at both Arizona and Cincinnati during the next two games.

Power 4 Bowls, Part 1

Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20): Cal vs. South Carolina
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26): Rutgers vs. TCU
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27): Virginia vs. Oklahoma
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 27): Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27): SMU vs. Arizona State
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27): Colorado vs. Ole Miss
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28): Georgia Tech vs. Michigan
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28): Syracuse vs. BYU
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28): Kansas State vs. USC

Trending Up: Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado, meanwhile, is a single victory from snapping a four-year postseason drought. It could happen as early as Saturday night at home against Cincinnati. If the Buffs win, they'll set up an important trip to Texas Tech on Nov. 9 that will determine if Deion Sanders' team is truly a Big 12 threat.

Trending Down: USC Trojans

Avert your eyes, Trojans fans, here's the stat again: In all seven matchups this season, USC has held a fourth-quarter lead. After the collapse at Maryland, however, the Trojans are now 3-4. I'm not bailing on USC, because the upcoming schedule isn't a gauntlet and doesn't have another flight outside of the West Coast. But things are not great at USC.

Power 4 Bowls, Part 2

Music City Bowl (Dec. 30): Wisconsin vs. LSU
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Iowa vs. Missouri
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31): Duke vs. Washington
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Illinois vs. Alabama
Texas Bowl (Dec. 31): Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
Gator Bowl (Jan. 2): Pitt vs. Texas A&M
First Responder (Jan. 3): Arizona vs. Oregon State
Mayo Bowl (Jan. 3): Louisville vs. Nebraska

Trending Up: Illinois Fighting Illini

Could we finally see a 10-win Illinois team again? Not since 2001 have the Illini hit double-digit wins, but they should be able to chase the mark in 2024. Although this weekend's journey to Oregon will be a huge challenge, 6-1 Illinois closes the season at home against Minnesota and Michigan State, then at Rutgers and Northwestern.

Trending Down: Louisville Cardinals

It's been a year of "so close, yet so far" at Louisville. On the path to a 4-3 record, the Cardinals have played three opponents that are currently ranked. They lost to Notre Dame by seven points, SMU by seven and just dropped a heart-breaker to Miami by, you guessed it, seven. Clemson and Pitt, both unbeaten in the ACC, remain on UL's slate.

College Football Playoff

First-Round Byes

The five highest-ranked conference champions (*) will automatically earn a CFP berth, and the four highest-ranked of that group will be placed in the quarterfinals. While this quartet is assumed to be from the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC), that's not guaranteed.

No. 1: Oregon*, Big Ten champion in Rose Bowl
No. 2 Georgia*, SEC champion in Sugar Bowl
No. 3: Clemson*, ACC champion in Peach Bowl
No. 4: Iowa State*, Big 12 champion in Fiesta Bowl

First-Round Games

No. 12 Boise State* (MWC champion) at No. 5 Texas (winner to Fiesta Bowl)
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Ohio State (winner to Peach Bowl)
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Penn State (winner to Sugar Bowl)
No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Notre Dame (winner to Rose Bowl)

Trending Up: Tennessee Volunteers

In all likelihood, the SEC will dominate the conversation around the CFP bubble. The winner of Saturday's clash between LSU and Texas A&M will be squarely on that radar, yet the loser won't leave the conversation. Tennessee, though, earned a huge result with a win over Alabama and knocked the Crimson Tide out of my projected CFP. Tennessee travels to Georgia later on but still can finish 10-2 with a loss there.

Trending Down: Miami Hurricanes

After flirting with dropping Miami for a couple of weeks, it feels like the proper time. This offense, led by Heisman Trophy front-runner Cam Ward, is dynamic and so much fun to watch. On the other hand, the defense is a missed-tackle machine. Miami, which is 7-0, should be good enough to make the CFP, but Clemson is the ACC's best team until proven otherwise.