Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner attempts to score on New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin. Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images

Way-Too-Early Predictions for 2025 NHL Free Agency

Lyle Richardson

The NHL's annual free-agent market opens at noon ET on Tuesday, July 1, 2025.

As always, the top unrestricted free agents (UFAs) will be quickly signed within the opening hours of free agency.

The only question will be which pending UFA stars will still be available once the market opens.

At first glance, plenty of notable players are eligible for UFA status next July.

Need a Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender? Look no further than Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers.

Teams in the market for a top-pairing defenseman with Stanley Cup experience will come calling for Florida Panthers blueliner Aaron Ekblad.

Does your favorite club need a skillful two-way forward? Mitch Marner of the Toronto Maple Leafs could be up for grabs.

Colorado Avalanche winger Mikko Rantanen could be on the open market for teams seeking a first-line scorer.

However, some of them could be re-signed by their current clubs before July 1. Notable stars such as Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby, Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl, Florida Panthers winger Carter Verhaeghe, Philadelphia Flyers winger Travis Konecny and Ottawa Senators goaltender Linus Ullmark have signed contract extensions since Sep. 1.

While the start of the 2025 NHL free agent market is still months into the future, we've dusted off our crystal ball to look ahead and predict what's in store for the top 10 pending UFAs in 2025.

Do you agree or disagree with our predictions? Let us know in the app comments below.

Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars

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A 35-goal, 87-point performance in 2014-15 earned center Jamie Benn the Art Ross Trophy. His career-best effort of 41 goals and 89 points the following season ensured the long-time Dallas Stars captain an eight-year contract extension worth an average annual value of $9.5 million.

Benn's production has dropped from those lofty heights throughout that deal, though he did have a 79-point season in 2017-18 and a 78-point performance in 2022-23. The 35-year-old now skates as a middle-six left winger though he can move up in the lineup when injuries strike.

Now in the final season of his contract, Benn's future with the Stars could come under scrutiny. On Sept. 30, Stars general manager Jim Nill told Lia Assimakopoulos of The Dallas Morning News that his captain informed him during the summer that he doesn't want to discuss a new contract during this season.

Nill indicated that Benn wants to focus on winning with the Stars this season and make decisions from there. He believes the 16-year Stars veteran wants to see how things shake out this season, determine the club's needs, and how he can help them.

Prediction

The Stars are among this season's Stanley Cup favorites following back-to-back appearances in the Western Conference Final. Benn likely wants to finish his NHL career in Dallas. He could accept a pay cut between $5.5 million and $6.5 million on a two-year deal depending on how much cap space they need for other signings.

Brock Boeser, Vancouver Canucks

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Vancouver Canucks winger Brock Boeser showed considerable promise as a goal scorer early in his NHL career. Injuries and inconsistent play hampered his production through most of that time.

Boeser finally broke through last season, tallying a career-best 40 goals and 73 points. It was the third time he was the Canucks leading goalscorer since netting 29 in 2017-18 and 23 in 56 games during the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign.

Another healthy and productive season will improve Boeser's chances of landing an expensive long-term deal. He's making an average annual value of $6.7 million on his current deal and will be in an excellent position to seek much more if he reaches the 40-goal plateau again.

Boeser was the subject of trade rumors in 2022-23 but insisted he wanted to stay in Vancouver. He rewarded the Canucks faith in him and could do so again in his contract year. On Oct. 8, The Fourth Period's Dave Pagnotta claimed contract discussions had started and could continue throughout this season.

Projection

The Canucks could have $15 million in cap space for 2025-26 if the salary cap goes to $92.5 million as projected. There's enough to re-sign Boeser but he could end up using up over $9 million if he reaches 40 goals this season.

Aaron Ekblad, Florida Panthers

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The Florida Panthers spent heavily re-signing Sam Reinhart on July 1 to an eight-year contract with an annual cap hit of $8.63 million. They also invested in winger Carter Verhaeghe, signing him on Oct. 8 to an eight-year extension with an AAV of $7 million.

It's believed Panthers general manager Bill Zito will shift his focus toward re-signing gritty, versatile forward Sam Bennett, who is slated to become an unrestricted free agent next July. However, there's been no word on his intentions for defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who is also UFA-eligible on July 1.

Ekblad, 28, has been a blue-line stalwart for the Panthers since winning the Calder Memorial Trophy in 2014-15. He's in the final season of an eight-year contract with an AAV of $7.5 million. The veteran rearguard was also the subject of some offseason trade speculation, earning a spot on our August NHL Trade Block Big Board.

The Panthers won't trade Ekblad as they attempt to defend the Stanley Cup this season. He's at the age where he could seek a long-term deal worth over $9 million annually. The Panthers could have over $19 million in cap space if the salary cap rises as projected to $92.5 million. However, re-signing Ekblad could use up almost half of it.

Prediction

Ekblad is in his prime but injuries have hampered his performance in recent years, which could affect his value in the free-agent market. He could accept a pay cut on a short-term deal to stay in Florida and help the Panthers remain as Cup contenders.

Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

From his 37-goal breakout performance in 2015-16 to his first season as Boston Bruins captain in 2023-24, Brad Marchand led his club with 701 total points. He also sat eighth among all NHL skaters in that category.

Marchand is in the final season of an eight-year contract with an average annual value of $6.13 million. Considering how much he's given to the Bruins as one of their top players, he's been underpaid throughout that deal.

Now 36 years old, Marchand has no chance of landing a significant raise on his next contract nor will he get a long-term deal from the Bruins or anyone else. He tallied 67 points in 2023-24 for the second straight year, which suggests that his years of regularly exceeding 80 points per season are over.

Like Patrice Bergeron before him, Marchand has been loyal to the Bruins. Now in his 16th NHL season, he's their elder statesman. He'll likely want to finish his career in Boston.

Projection

Marchand could follow Bergeron's example and opt for a one-year, bonus-laden contract for 2025-26. He could also accept a two-year deal worth slightly less than his current AAV, perhaps around $5 million annually depending on his performance this season.

Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs

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Another early playoff exit by the Toronto Maple Leafs made Mitch Marner the whipping boy for unhappy Toronto fans and rumor fodder for hockey pundits. The 27-year-old right winger was featured in our June and July NHL Trade Block Big Boards.

However, Marner carries an immovable contract with a $10.9 million annual cap hit and a full no-movement clause. Talk of trading the two-way forward faded away over the course of the offseason. He remains among their "Core Four" forwards with Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares entering this season.

Marner is now in the final season of his contract and UFA-eligible on July 1. At the start of training camp on Sept. 18, he and Leafs general manager Brad Treliving told the media they wouldn't publicly discuss their contract negotiations. He indicated he desires to stay with his hometown team.

Re-signing Marner will be expensive. He's considered among the league's best two-way forwards. It's unlikely he'll accept anything less than the $11.5 million AAV teammate William Nylander signed last season with the Leafs.

Prediction

A lot will depend on Marner's performance in particular and the Leafs' performance in general this season. If he plays well and the Leafs reach the Eastern Conference Final, a long-term deal worth between $12.5 million and $13 million will be his. Otherwise, management will have difficulty justifying that raise if the Leafs come up short again.

Brock Nelson, New York Islanders

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The lack of contract extension talks during the offseason between Brock Nelson and the New York Islanders generated speculation over his future. It saw the 33-year-old center top our September NHL Trade Block Big Board and sit at No. 3 on our October board.

Nelson is in the final season of a six-year contract with an average annual value of $6 million. Since scoring 20 goals and 42 points in 2014-15 through his 34-goal, 69-point campaign last season, he's been the Islanders' most consistent scorer, leading them with 768 total games, 261 goals, and 505 points.

On Sept. 28, Nelson told Ethan Sears of the New York Post that he's open to having contract extension talks during this season. He added that he has a great relationship with general manager Lou Lamoriello. Still, he won't force the issue and will remain focused on his play.

Sears doesn't see the Islanders rushing to trade or sign Nelson. However, he suggested the center could become a valuable trade chip if they find themselves out of playoff contention by the March 7 trade deadline. They'll also likely want to see if Nelson maintains his usual level of production.

Prediction

Nelson is at an age where he's unlikely to get a big raise on a long-term contract. The Isles could shop him if they're out of contention but Lamoriello tends to be loyal to his long-time veterans. A four-year deal worth between $6.5 million and $7 million seems possible.

Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche

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In the final season of his six-year, $55.5 million contract, Mikko Rantanen has himself as an NHL superstar. From his 84-point breakout performance in 2017-18 through last season, the Finnish right winger sat eighth among all NHL scorers with 579 points in 486 games.

The Avalanche has gotten their money's worth from Rantanen's $9.25 million annual salary-cap hit. With his high production level, he'd be considered their best player if not for the presence of superstars like center Nathan MacKinnon and defenseman Cale Makar.

Nevertheless, Rantanen could have the opportunity to become another club's best player if he and the Avalanche fail to agree to a contract extension. He's earned the right to be paid like a high-scoring superstar and could seek something close to MacKinnon's team-leading $12.6 million AAV.

On Oct. 8, Avalanche general manager Chris MacFarland said he wasn't concerned about signing Rantanen. However, TSN's Pierre LeBrun reported on Oct. 10 that a significant gap existed between the two sides. While he still thinks this could get done, he indicated that not everyone is so sure.

Prediction

Rantanen's camp will have difficulty justifying to Avs management that their client deserves a bigger contract than MacKinnon but he could stick around if they pay him $12.5 million annually. However, that could hamper their efforts to re-sign Makar before his UFA eligibility in 2027.

Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers

Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images

Contract extension talks are reportedly underway between Igor Shesterkin and the New York Rangers. On Oct. 8, ESPN's Kevin Weekes reported the Rangers offered up an eight-year, $88 million deal. However, it was rejected by the Shesterkin camp.

Shesterkin is in the final season of a four-year contract with an average annual value of $5.7 million. The 28-year-old goaltender won the Vezina Trophy in 2021-22 and backstopped the Rangers to the 2022 and 2024 Eastern Conference Finals.

The Rangers' reported offer would have made Shesterkin the highest-paid goaltender in NHL history. However, Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli reported the goalie's camp is holding firm, believing they can get $12 million annually or more on the open market.

Seravalli doubts the Rangers will go that high but believes they intend on signing Shesterkin to something just over their $11 million bid. He also believes that the netminder must consider if he wants to leave a good situation with the Rangers to chase riches elsewhere.

Prediction

Whatever Shesterkin gets will set a higher market for goaltenders. The two sides don't see that far apart and could settle on something around $11.5 million annually. Given his importance to the Rangers, they'll do all they can to keep him in The Big Apple, even if it means making him their highest-paid player.

John Tavares, Toronto Maple Leafs

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Approaching the end of his seven-year, $77 million contract, John Tavares is no longer the high-scoring center he was when he signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs on July 1, 2018. After averaging nearly a point per game (0.98) from 2018-19 to 2022-23, his production fell to 0.81 after totaling 65 points in 80 games last season.

Tavares was captain of the Leafs from 2019-20 to last season. However, the club's inability to go deep in the playoffs under his leadership and the rise of superstar Auston Matthews saw him relinquish the captaincy to Matthews on Aug. 14.

Now 34-year-old, Tavares' best seasons appear behind him. So are his days of earning lucrative long-term contracts worth $11 million annually. If he goes to market next summer, he'll likely earn two or three-year offers worth half his current average annual value.

Tavares, however, hopes to remain with the Leafs. "It's not something I am going to talk about or focus on every single day, but obviously I want to be here," he said on Sept. 18. "I want to be here long term and hopefully that happens."

Prediction

On Oct. 8, TSN's Pierre LeBrun reported some contract discussions between Leafs management and Tavares' agent. Nothing's imminent but discussions could pick up again. If he's prepared to accept a substantial pay cut of around $5 million annually on a short-term deal, he'll remain in Toronto.

Shea Theodore, Vegas Golden Knights

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Chosen by the Vegas Golden Knights in the 2017 NHL expansion draft, Shea Theodore is among the three remaining "Golden Misfits" on the team. However, this season could be his last with the club.

Theodore, 29, blossomed into a skillful puck-moving defenseman who can play left or right defense. Frequently paired with Alex Pietrangelo, the duo played a key role in the Golden Knights winning the Stanley Cup in 2022-23.

Slated to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, Theodore is in the final season of a seven-year contract with an average annual value of $5.2 million. Having reached or exceeded the 40-point plateau in five straight seasons from 2019-20 to 2023-24, he's in line for a significant raise.

Theodore could seek as much as $8 million annually on a long-term contract, putting him almost on par with Pietrangelo's $8.8 million AAV. However, the Golden Knights acquired left-shot defenseman Noah Hanifin last season and signed the 27-year-old to an eight-year deal with an annual cap hit of $7.4 million.

Prediction

The Golden Knights have shown they're willing to part with pending free agents who won't agree to their terms. If the salary cap rises as projected to $92.5 million, they'll have a projected $29.7 million for 2025-26, which is plenty to re-sign Theodore. However, they could still part ways with Theodore if he seeks more than they're willing to pay.

Stats via NHL.com. Salary info via PuckPedia. Line combinations via The Hockey News.

   

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